Of those picked ahead of him only Morant has a better VORP but he is injured.
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Darius Kinnard Garland
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Garland has a ton of room to improve as well.
He can physically get stronger, in better shape, to finish through contact better, have more stamina, etc.
His college season was ruined 5 games in. He didn’t really have an off-season and he was out of shape his rookie year. Then year 2 he had to deal with COVID and a weird season.
Now he finally had a chance to have a real off-season and he has some actual players around him that he can feed for buckets.
This year we’re seeing a leap…..but there are potentially more, even bigger leaps to come. He’s learning from Rubio in real time now…
He’s only shooting 35% from 3 right now. He’s a much better shooter than that. As he adjusts to increased volume that will tick upward. He’s averaging nearly 19 a game and now is up over 7 assists.
I do think he should be able to get to the line a little more than 2.4 a game. If he could get up to 4-5 FTA and tick up to 39% from 3 all of a sudden he would be up to 23-24points a night. He’s actually sneaky good at playing passing lanes too. 1.2 SPG.
weepinwillow
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I still see Steve Nash in his game the way he keeps his dribble and is always trying to get the defense to send an extra man at him in the paint. If that 3% could get to the .375-.380 range (I know Nash shot a better %, but he also shot less of them), the TO's could come down slightly & he adds the FT jumper he'd basically be there. That doesn't mean I see 2x MVP, more just style and approach.
He looks like he could become pretty special.
All4One1ForAll
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Garland's currently shooting 35.1% from 3, about 0.7% above league average. His finishing at the rim is 62% (68th percentile) after being at 57% and 42% his sophomore and rookie years respectively.
His 3 point attempt rate is actually up this year, with 45.7% of his FGs coming from behind the arc compared to 33.2% last year. If he can just get that 3P% up to a reasonable 38% while maintaining this finishing rate, he'd be scoring 19.3 ppg on 58.4% TS, +3.3% above league average efficiency. Right now, he's at 18.6 ppg on 56.5% TS. I would say we'd like to see 40% from DG because he shot 39.5% last year, but 3P% in the league on the whole is actually down from 36.7% last season to 34.4% this year after the rule changes, plus with the increased attempt rate, Garland is shooting more difficult threes on average. And so 38% might be a more realistic figure.
Of the players shooting 7+ threes per game this year (Garland is at 7.1), only three - Stephen Curry, CJ McCollum, and Grayson Allen are shooting over 40% from 3. So it's pretty rare territory to get into.
His 3 point attempt rate is actually up this year, with 45.7% of his FGs coming from behind the arc compared to 33.2% last year. If he can just get that 3P% up to a reasonable 38% while maintaining this finishing rate, he'd be scoring 19.3 ppg on 58.4% TS, +3.3% above league average efficiency. Right now, he's at 18.6 ppg on 56.5% TS. I would say we'd like to see 40% from DG because he shot 39.5% last year, but 3P% in the league on the whole is actually down from 36.7% last season to 34.4% this year after the rule changes, plus with the increased attempt rate, Garland is shooting more difficult threes on average. And so 38% might be a more realistic figure.
Of the players shooting 7+ threes per game this year (Garland is at 7.1), only three - Stephen Curry, CJ McCollum, and Grayson Allen are shooting over 40% from 3. So it's pretty rare territory to get into.
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Due to lack of height Garland has to shoot his 3's at a much higher trajectory than most players which makes them harder to make. I think he should work on shooting 3's off the dribble and getting them away quicker so he doesn't have to shoot them so high.
He needs to get a little better at not getting trapped in corners or on the baseline and having to leave his feet with nowhere to pass the ball. But overall he's progressing really well.
He needs to get a little better at not getting trapped in corners or on the baseline and having to leave his feet with nowhere to pass the ball. But overall he's progressing really well.
All4One1ForAll
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DG also has a bit of a low release point, which doesn't help.
but shooting coaches will tell you a high arc is better than a flat shot, so i don't necessarily see a problem there. the low release point though, is where he should clean up.
Futuredome
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Garland does not have Steph's talent and never will. Few will. Lillard is his ceiling. Most likely the next Kenny Anderson.
Cavatt
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Yeah Curry was in College at Darius' age. Curry wasn't even talented enough to be drafted at 5
CavsKermit
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One of the problems is that both Garland and Rubio are being asked to assume SG roles in addition to being PGs and it's starting show. Earlier this season, a lot of fans made a big deal that Garland wasn't *aggressive* enough and I fear that the coaching staff may have conveyed a similar message. Taking what the defense gives you is always the smarter play than forcing the issue. The only time Kyrie ever played like a PG was the first half of his rookie year and then Byron Scott told him he had to be more aggressive. He's been an undersized SG who's convinced the best shot on any possession comes off of his hands ever since.
Hopefully, both Mobley and Lauri coming back and being able to help with spacing allows Garland to facilitate more because his bbiq and ability to see the floor is what makes him special. If you just want an undersized guy who can score a bunch on high usage, they're a dime a dozen. Also, if the Cavs don't develop some go-to counters for when Garland gets trapped, I'm probably going to lose my mind. After watching six plus years of Love getting double teamed on the block while his teammates just stand around, I don't have it in me to ignore the failure to coach at even a high school level.
While I don't like the high turnovers, I'd say it's necessary for growth. He has to have the "balls" to make the pass to see what works and what doesn't. I'm fine with the experimenting to progress. Let's just hope it grows his decision making process positively going forward.
weepinwillow
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this has become common for shooters now that defenders aren't allowed to handcheck, Curry has it too. Back in the 90's it would be tough to get a contested shot off w/that low a release because the defenders hand was literally on your waist, so players like Reggie Miller or Ray Allen used a higher release. Now guys use the lower release w/o fear of the hand check as a way to add range to an already pretty long shot.