Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[CATS44]

Wisdom Ks over 40% of the time. His contact rate was the second lowest in MLB. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone was the worst.

He was a 29 yr old rookie that had a career in under 400 PAs.

2021 was something he can tell his grandkids about.

 

[CDAV45]

Wisdom Ks over 40% of the time. His contact rate was the second lowest in MLB. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone was the worst.

He was a 29 yr old rookie that had a career in under 400 PAs.

2021 was something he can tell his grandkids about.

I know. I look at him and think he'll fade into oblivion, but his hard hit rate and exit velocities are up there. He's good defensively and he's making the league minimum. I really don't know how to feel about him and there are certainly some big red flags going up when considering him as a possibility.

On the red flag note, I don't feel confident in many OFers honestly. Ketel Marte probably gives me the most confidence. Mullins was phenomenal, but can he repeat it and if not how far does he fall? Considering all of Mullins, the Martes, Garcia, Wisdom, and Happ, Happ gives me the warmest feeling because I don't think he'll cost much to acquire. He's not without his warts though. So right now I say sign Garcia and trade for Happ. Definitely subject to change.

 

[CATS44]

I will be disappointed if the off season consists of overpaying Garcia long term, a guy who has had two decent seasons in seven years, and our big trade being Happ, yet another high K guy.

I would love to have Happ, but not as our big move.

 

[sportscoach]

@Steve_424

Via the trade values, Plesac is at 24.1 and Walsh is at 25, so they have about equal value. From what Bimbo said, teams would have to overpay for Plesac while the Angels feel the same about Walsh, they are going to want more than just Plesac for him... it would be a hard to figure a good trade that both teams would like.

I am thinking if anyone puts up the value the Guardians want for Plesac it will be the Blue Jays... they have a legit offense with some hitting prospects coming up as well, while they lack depth at SP near MLB. We could do a Guirrel + prospects for Plesac (plus something here)

We also could do a minor league swap of a pitcher for a Kevin Smith/Otto Lopez type of move. That actually seems really reasonable...

 

[CDAV45]

@Steve_424

Via the trade values, Plesac is at 24.1 and Walsh is at 25, so they have about equal value. From what Bimbo said, teams would have to overpay for Plesac while the Angels feel the same about Walsh, they are going to want more than just Plesac for him... it would be a hard to figure a good trade that both teams would like.

I am thinking if anyone puts up the value the Guardians want for Plesac it will be the Blue Jays... they have a legit offense with some hitting prospects coming up as well, while they lack depth at SP near MLB. We could do a Guirrel + prospects for Plesac (plus something here)

We also could do a minor league swap of a pitcher for a Kevin Smith/Otto Lopez type of move. That actually seems really reasonable...

You can use those values if you like, but there is no way that Walsh is more valuable to Plesac. At this point it would take one of Adell/Walsh and Stassi to get Plesac from me. I mean if what you say is true(I don't believe it is) then we'll only need one of our better prospects to significantly upgrade a position because evidently they are more valuable than an established SP like Plesac.

 

[Gson]

@Steve_424

Via the trade values, Plesac is at 24.1 and Walsh is at 25, so they have about equal value. From what Bimbo said, teams would have to overpay for Plesac while the Angels feel the same about Walsh, they are going to want more than just Plesac for him... it would be a hard to figure a good trade that both teams would like.

I am thinking if anyone puts up the value the Guardians want for Plesac it will be the Blue Jays... they have a legit offense with some hitting prospects coming up as well, while they lack depth at SP near MLB. We could do a Guirrel + prospects for Plesac (plus something here)

We also could do a minor league swap of a pitcher for a Kevin Smith/Otto Lopez type of move. That actually seems really reasonable...

How about a Joey Cantillo for Red Thunder (assumes a good bill of health) from the Yankees?

 

[CATS44]

If we trade a SP, it is very unlikely that it will be for speculation.

Any SP we trade will be for proven MLB production.

**********

Signing Suzuki would be a four/five year gamble. Long term gambles are something a franchise in our size market can't afford.

*********

Does the FO want to gamble that Soler is more than a 1 fWAR player, something he's been only once in his career? Or that Garcia is more than a 2 fWAR player, something he's been only twice in his career?

Both, along with Suzuki, would be significant bets on iffy hands.

It might be different if we were talking one/two year contracts.

 

[sportscoach]

If we trade a SP, it is very unlikely that it will be for speculation.

Any SP we trade will be for proven MLB production.

**********

Signing Suzuki would be a four/five year gamble. Long term gambles are something a franchise in our size market can't afford.

*********

Does the FO want to gamble that Soler is more than a 1 fWAR player, something he's been only once in his career? Or that Garcia is more than a 2 fWAR player, something he's been only twice in his career?

Both, along with Suzuki, would be significant bets on iffy hands.

It might be different if we were talking one/two year contracts.

I would be the type of owner who if my scouts really liked a Japanese player and his market price was reasonable, then I would okay the signing. Some of my best signings in OOTP were on the posted market. They are gambles and way easier to get out of in the game, but if I told you we had a chance to get a player that put up good SO and BB rates with a 1.000 OPS at a AA/AAA we would be like, get that guy up now...

Aka if we are going to gamble, year one of would be the best time... We haven't had OF production and we go out and get on paper the top one from Japan plus extend guys. If stuff like that doesn't help Dolans perception then nothing will ya know? The sweet part of signing Suzuki, we can still go get Reynolds on paper via trade and put Reynolds in LF and Suzuki in RF with Straw in CF and Mercado/Zimmer type on the bench, on paper we just massively upgraded the lineup...

CF Straw- LF Reynolds- 3B JRam- DH Reyes- 1B Bradley- RF Suzuki- 2B Amed- SS Gimenez- C Perez/Gomes/Hedges...

I think I could go into the 22 season with that roster... Then 3 position players and the backup C as the bench...I think I would be happy with that personally.

 

[CDAV45]

I would be the type of owner who if my scouts really liked a Japanese player and his market price was reasonable, then I would okay the signing. Some of my best signings in OOTP were on the posted market. They are gambles and way easier to get out of in the game, but if I told you we had a chance to get a player that put up good SO and BB rates with a 1.000 OPS at a AA/AAA we would be like, get that guy up now...

Aka if we are going to gamble, year one of would be the best time... We haven't had OF production and we go out and get on paper the top one from Japan plus extend guys. If stuff like that doesn't help Dolans perception then nothing will ya know? The sweet part of signing Suzuki, we can still go get Reynolds on paper via trade and put Reynolds in LF and Suzuki in RF with Straw in CF and Mercado/Zimmer type on the bench, on paper we just massively upgraded the lineup...

CF Straw- LF Reynolds- 3B JRam- DH Reyes- 1B Bradley- RF Suzuki- 2B Amed- SS Gimenez- C Perez/Gomes/Hedges...

I think I could go into the 22 season with that roster... Then 3 position players and the backup C as the bench...I think I would be happy with that personally.

Yeah, the difference is said minor leaguer would be making the league minimum and has options. I'd rather give Kwan a shot rather than signing Suzuki to a longterm, expensive contract we couldn't get out from under. This organization cannot afford to take a chance like that. That money is better spent on extensions or a proven FA.

 

[sportscoach]

Yeah, the difference is said minor leaguer would be making the league minimum and has options. I'd rather give Kwan a shot rather than signing Suzuki to a longterm, expensive contract we couldn't get out from under. This organization cannot afford to take a chance like that. That money is better spent on extensions or a proven FA.

That's the disadvantage of being in a smaller market... if we had the budget of the bigger markets, but used the savvy that you need in the smaller market, we would be an impossible franchise to beat...

 

[CDAV45]

That's the disadvantage of being in a smaller market... if we had the budget of the bigger markets, but used the savvy that you need in the smaller market, we would be an impossible franchise to beat...

Agreed!

 

[DCTribefan]

 

[CATS44]

The premise of this thread is that we have $70 mil to spend this season.

If we signed Suzuki for the estimated 5/55, we would have to pay a $10 mil posting fee up front, and then pay a portion of his salary this season. Unless the contract was severely back loaded, we are talking close to $ 8-11 mil.

If the ceiling is $70 mil, Suzuki doesn't fit the budget. Even if the budget is $80 mil (a number I strongly doubt), Suzuki takes all of the discretionary cash.

While we might be able to make a huge trade for a Reynolds type, we wouldn't be able to pay him his well below market salary.

Whether or not he is worth what he will get is IMO beside the point. We don't have the money at $70 mil.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Alright, I have some free time this morning before meetings. Here is what I would do, nothing rumor related all opinion:

DFA HRam, Young, Moss, Nelson, protect Valera, Freeman, Rocchio, Lavastida, Palacios, Morris, Cantillo, Pilkington

Trade for Ian Happ prior to Rule 5 cutoff (think a package of Tena and mid-level pitcher like Gattis could get it done, or close to done) - 6.5 million is his projected arb salary

DFA or trade Zimmer if that move happens

Sign Mark Canha 2/22

Sign Yan Gomes 1/6.5

DFA Garza and trade/DFA Clement after those moves (hat tip to Mad for catching this)

Sign Michael Lorenzen after pitchers and catchers report 1/3 with a team option for 23

Move Vargas and Naylor to the 60 day to free up a space for Lorenzen.

Lineup:

Straw CF
Canha RF
Ramirez 3B
Reyes DH
Happ LF
Bradley 1B
Rosario 2B
Gomes C
Gimenez SS

Mercado, Hedges, Chang, Miller bench

Rotation:

Bieber
Civale
Plesac
Quantrill
McKenzie

Bullpen:

Clase
Karinchak
Sandlin
Stephan
Hentges
Mejia
Lorenzen
Gose

I look to trade Logan Allen before setting rosters if Hentges or Mejia aren't granted an extra option due to the non-existent minors season in 2020.

Nothing crazy, but I think that team is considerably better than 21s team. Could potentially be a very deep lineup as well if you see progression from Bradley, Rosario, Gimenez, Chang, and Miller.

 

[MadThinker88]

@BimboColesHair

I believe there is a fatal flaw in your plan.
Unless all of Gomes/ Cahna/ Lorenzen are signing as spring training opens, then the 60 day IL is unavailable to make roster space to add those guys.