Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[CATS44]

In 2016 the FO was willing to trade eight prospects, one of which had a little MLB experience, for an impact reliever with 2.5 years of control and an impact bat with 1.5 years of control.

Among those prospects were two MLB ready OFs...both debuted the next year.

Three relievers, one of which was much like Sandlin, and another who immediately debuted in MLB.

A starting pitching prospect, then in A+ ball.

One of the elite catching prospects in baseball, then in A+, and debuted the next year.

A power hitting SS in A+.

At the beginning of 2016, Frazier was rated as our #2 prospect with a 60 FV.

Sheffield was our #5, a 50 FV.

Mejia was #12, a 45+.

Allen was #16, a 45+.

Armstrong was #20, a 40+.

Chang was #25, a 40.

But by the end of the season, Mejia was rated #1, a 55. Allen was #4, a 50, and Chang was #9, a 45.

Since those trade proposals were deadline deals, the latter valuations were closer.

The FO was willing to trade basically five of our top ten prospects, a good looking young MLB reliever, and two other relievers....in the same day.

As it turned out, the Lucroy deal fell thru, but the loss of those eight prospects wouldn't have hurt us at all.

Instructive is the fact that Sherman had agreed to come on board, but wasn't yet officially in the ownership group...and he advocated for those trades.

The idea that this front office and ownership won't make these kind of moves now, or that such moves would hinder the future, flies in the face of historical fact.

You can attempt to make a list of equivalent prospects today, and any list would naturally be open to debate, but lets try it. (We presently have no prospects rated above 50 FV)

Allen, jr, for Sheffield
Valera for Mejia
Arias for Frazier
Tena for Chang
Palacios for Allen
Sandlin for Armstrong
Mikolajchak for Heller
Broom for Feyereisen

 

[CATS44]

We have a much better than 10% chance of making the playoffs this year, because we start as an 88 win team. A significant addition pushes our chances well past 17%....lol.

It appears that as fans spend time way overestimating the future value of our prospect list, they balance it out with a huge underestimating the present MLB roster.

Thats natural, as its the 'What we don't have is always better than what we have' syndrome. After all, everybodys favorite football player is the backup QB.

 

[KluberSociety]

If you think we start as an 88 win team then I see why you'd want to trade for the now.

 

[CATS44]

Well, we won 80 games last year, while not having Bieber, Civale and Plesac for a combined approximate 30 starts. Those starts were made instead by some combination of Mejia (11), Hentges (12), and Morgan (18).

Quantrill (22 starts) also didn't begin in the rotation originally, eventually replacing Allen (11).

Based on the team winning percentage in games started by all those starting pitchers, we would have won 88-89 games had the rotation with Quantrill from the beginning stayed intact....without any improvement from the offense.

Our entire lineup returns, minus Berto, who wasn't a factor offensively. On top of that, another 30-35 games can be expected from Franmil, who is a factor. And we have Straw for an entire season, instead of the hot mess of 100 games from Gamel, Amed, Zimmer, Harold, and Mercado in CF. Not one offensive player had a career year, or even produced over what could be normally expected. We also don't have to watch 43 games of Bauers. Bradley may not work out, but he is an improvement over Bauers.

Given their ages and experience levels, a natural progression from Gimenez, Miller, and Clement can be expected.

We can talk about Detroits additions all we want, but they don't add up to what we gain from full seasons out of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Franmil, and Straw.

But none of my trade proposals...and FO expectations... are about now. They are part of a plan for the next three years, and there are two parts to that plan. First, to make this team the favorite in the division for three years. Second, to maximize the on the field production we get out of our top prospects over the next three years.

 

[KluberSociety]

Well, we won 80 games last year, while not having Bieber, Civale and Plesac for a combined approximate 30 starts. Those starts were made instead by some combination of Mejia (11), Hentges (12), and Morgan (18).

Quantrill (22 starts) also didn't begin in the rotation originally, eventually replacing Allen (11).

Based on the team winning percentage in games started by all those starting pitchers, we would have won 88-89 games had the rotation with Quantrill from the beginning stayed intact....without any improvement from the offense.

Our entire lineup returns, minus Berto, who wasn't a factor offensively. On top of that, another 30-35 games can be expected from Franmil, who is a factor. And we have Straw for an entire season, instead of the hot mess of 100 games from Gamel, Amed, Zimmer, Harold, and Mercado in CF. Not one offensive player had a career year, or even produced over what could be normally expected. We also don't have to watch 43 games of Bauers. Bradley may not work out, but he is an improvement over Bauers.

Given their ages and experience levels, a natural progression from Gimenez, Miller, and Clement can be expected.

We can talk about Detroits additions all we want, but they don't add up to what we gain from full seasons out of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Franmil, and Straw.

But none of my trade proposals...and FO expectations... are about now. They are part of a plan for the next three years, and there are two parts to that plan. First, to make this team the favorite in the division for three years. Second, to maximize the on the field production we get out of our top prospects over the next three years.

I do think we were on the unluckier side of the injury bug, however other teams lost players too and I think you've got to factor that into the baseline. While I do think the rotation will be better in 2021, the offense wasn't really hurt much by injuries (sure we did lose Franmil but he wasn't that great anyway).

If the team was fully healthy I think you could add quite a few wins onto the record but you could also do the same with the White Sox and the rest of the divisional teams. Maybe not to as big of a degree but to the point where adding on 8 wins while adding zero onto the rest makes little sense.

I do think the fact that our team is so damn young bodes well for them getting better with an extra year of experience but the position core is probably not really going to improve much outside of acquisitions and maybe MIF if we're lucky.

Bieber hasn't quite looked his self and had sticky speculations. There's still durability concerns with the pitchers as a whole especially given what happened last year (other than the avoidable Plesac injury).

All in all I just don't have a super optimistic assessment that makes me think they'll be very likely to make the playoffs this year, but I do know their only real path is the division so they will have to beat some stronger teams as well. I hope you're right though.

 

[Gson]

There are about 100 sites that are making all too early predictions for the 2022 season.. not one of them has the Guardians finishing at or above 86 wins...and only one has 85 wins.. MLB, Pecota, so many others are all saying the same thing.. the guardians will fight to stay near second place in the division to the 88 win Tigers..

88-89 wins is unrealistically optimistic.... 78 - 82 wins with a healthy pitching staff is realistic..

If, at the end of the day, the only person you fool is yourself.. then you only have yourself to blame..

 

[Benway]

Gonna be a lonnnnnnnnnng winter for you all.

Don't like the sound of That.

 

[CDAV45]

Gonna be a lonnnnnnnnnng winter for you all.

What do you mean "gonna be". It already is and it sucks balls!

 

[CDAV45]

I do think we were on the unluckier side of the injury bug, however other teams lost players too and I think you've got to factor that into the baseline. While I do think the rotation will be better in 2021, the offense wasn't really hurt much by injuries (sure we did lose Franmil but he wasn't that great anyway).

If the team was fully healthy I think you could add quite a few wins onto the record but you could also do the same with the White Sox and the rest of the divisional teams. Maybe not to as big of a degree but to the point where adding on 8 wins while adding zero onto the rest makes little sense.

I do think the fact that our team is so damn young bodes well for them getting better with an extra year of experience but the position core is probably not really going to improve much outside of acquisitions and maybe MIF if we're lucky.

Bieber hasn't quite looked his self and had sticky speculations. There's still durability concerns with the pitchers as a whole especially given what happened last year (other than the avoidable Plesac injury).

All in all I just don't have a super optimistic assessment that makes me think they'll be very likely to make the playoffs this year, but I do know their only real path is the division so they will have to beat some stronger teams as well. I hope you're right though.

The pitching staff is deeper than it's ever been. It's my belief if those same 3 injuries occur in the 2022 season that they will be covered much better, but the chances of that happening again are slim.

This team lacked offense last year and it still lacks offense, but how can any predictions be made when we all pretty much agree that there will be and addition or 3. I'm gonna hold my cards for the time being.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if the additions were minimal. We are so close to seeing what all of Arias, Rocchio, Freeman, Valera, Palacios, Tena, Kwan, Jones, Lavastida, and the hoard of SP coming up can do. Gimenez, Miller, Chang, and Rosario will be starting the season with another year's experience. According to Bimbo, Naylor has a spot when he recovers even though that might not be until the 2nd half. They're gonna give Bradley another shot at 1B. If they make a move for a good C and/or OFer I'll be pleased. If they don't then I'll understand their reasoning.

 

[sportscoach]

The pitching staff is deeper than it's ever been. It's my belief if those same 3 injuries occur in the 2022 season that they will be covered much better, but the chances of that happening again are slim.

This team lacked offense last year and it still lacks offense, but how can any predictions be made when we all pretty much agree that there will be and addition or 3. I'm gonna hold my cards for the time being.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if the additions were minimal. We are so close to seeing what all of Arias, Rocchio, Freeman, Valera, Palacios, Tena, Kwan, Jones, Lavastida, and the hoard of SP coming up can do. Gimenez, Miller, Chang, and Rosario will be starting the season with another year's experience. According to Bimbo, Naylor has a spot when he recovers even though that might not be until the 2nd half. They're gonna give Bradley another shot at 1B. If they make a move for a good C and/or OFer I'll be pleased. If they don't then I'll understand their reasoning.

We will make a move for a catcher... we have two on the 40 man, one with concussion issues and another with little catching experience. Then we have your favorite guy Leon on a minor league deal. We have to get another C that can play in the bigs. Hence why I said the other day, the bare minimum is getting two of the free agents with MLB experience at least on minor league deals with incentives and opt outs.

 

[CATS44]

Gotta love Bimbos cryptic insertions into the conversation...lol.

With the lockout and no discussions between teams that can be leaked, it already has been a long winter, with at least two months to go. The fire in the hot stove has gone out.

BTW, Hot Stove is the term applied to the baseball winter offseason, conjuring up a group of rural farmers gathering at the local General store to sit around a central stove and talk about the national pastime.

If you follow Bimbos crypticisions, it is fairly plain that his expectations for the Guardians off season come close to mine.

At least one trade and two or three FA moves, targeting corner OFs, a catcher, and perhaps a vet reliever.

Our team offense, once Straw was added, ranked fairly well , even with poor production from RF, LF, and catcher.

Offense won't be the priority for behind the plate, the focus being somebody who can handle our young pitching staff for 80+ games....and/or act as a bridge to Lavastida/Naylor.

The Guardians FO pre lockout was one of the most active in talks involving the addition of MLB talent...and the accompanying salary.

We knew clear back into last season that the FO was frustrated with the corner OF situation.

The priorities still exist. Nothing has changed yet...

But it will.

 

[CDAV45]

We will make a move for a catcher... we have two on the 40 man, one with concussion issues and another with little catching experience. Then we have your favorite guy Leon on a minor league deal. We have to get another C that can play in the bigs. Hence why I said the other day, the bare minimum is getting two of the free agents with MLB experience at least on minor league deals with incentives and opt outs.

Yeah will it be for a real C or another Leon for insurance? There's nothing out there in FA now so if it's going to be an upgrade then it will have to come via trade.

 

[sportscoach]

Yeah will it be for a real C or another Leon for insurance? There's nothing out there in FA now so it it's going to be an upgrade then it will have to come via trade.

I dont see anything in free agency that's any better than Leon... but I am not sure who is available via trade either honestly.

 

[CDAV45]

If offense isn't a priority behind the plate then they're set at C with Hedges and Leon. Both can handle a pitching staff well and are good defensively.

This team ranked 27th in OBP, 16th in SLG, and 21st in OPS. No pitching staff can overcome that so it needs to be much better. It doesn't have to be the best, but definitively better. To put this into perspective here is a list of the playoff teams and where they ranked in OBP/SLG/OPS.

Rays- 11/8/10
Astros- 1/3/2
Red Sox- 7/2/3
Dodgers- 5/7/6
Giants- 6/4/4
Braves- 12/5/8

Unsurprisingly, the eliminated WC teams were the weakest offensive teams as well.

Here's where the Guardians ranked in those same categories(OBP/SLG/OPS) in each year since we started our playoff run in 2016:
2016- 8/9/7
2017- 2/3/2
2018- 6/6/4

We missed the playoffs in 2019 and we ranked 15/14/15. Are we getting the picture?

Edited to say that I think it's safe to say that good pitching can make up for good hitting and vice versa, but it's limited and there's something to be said about being "well rounded".

 

[CDAV45]

I dont see anything in free agency that's any better than Leon... but I am not sure who is available via trade either honestly.

Me either, but I'm sure there's somebody. Hell, the Mets would probably love to dump McCann's contract, but if Cleveland can afford that then they could have afforded Gomes.......right?