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The Sixers are 22-11 and will be looking for payback after getting smoked by 24 points by the Cavs in the third game of the season back on Dec. 27. Only this time Mr. Embiid is expected to play.
Ordinarily you’d think the Cavs have no shot especially since the Sixers have a record of 14-2 at home. But lately the Sixers have not been all that dominant. In their last 11 games they lost to Portland twice, Phoenix, Utah, and Toronto. All but Toronto are over .500 while the Raptors are one game under. The Sixers wins came against Dallas, Toronto, Houston, Chicago, and Sacramento. So every win was over a losing team and every loss but one was to a winning team. They’re looking like a slightly above average team lately but they do love that home cooking.
On top of that PF Tobias Harris, who is having an All-Star season according to Screamin’ Steven, is out with a knee problem. He’s averaging 20.2 points and 7.5 rebounds so his absence will be felt. Since the Cavs’ two best power forwards are out Harris’ loss really helps. Fortunately we won’t see a Harris/Dean Wade matchup.
In the first game the Cavs got a huge break with Embiid being out; this time it’s Harris, who put up a line of 16/9/5 with 3 steals in the first game. The starting lineup for that game was Drummond, Love, Nance, Sexton and Garland as Bickerstaff went with the “supersized” lineup to start the game. Unfortunately, Love pulled his calf after only 9 minutes and we haven’t seen him on the floor since.
The Cavs will also be missing Dante Exum, who came off the bench to post a +29. Nance and Andre were +21 and +27 so three guys no longer here were hugely instrumental in that win. With no Embiid in the paint Drummond had a big game.
However, I noticed that cbssports.com has Love listed as a game-time decision tonight. We’ve seen that before. Prince got a few minutes the other night in his first game back, going 1-for-8 in 8 minutes. Obviously he was a little rusty. I expect he’ll get more run tonight which could be significant because he’s shooting 41% on 3’s since coming to Cleveland and we’ll need to hit some 3’s to hang with the Sixers.
The Jarrett Allen/Joel Embiid matchup should be worth the price of a ticket and it will also be interesting to see how the Cavs small guards try to handle 6’11”, 240 pound point guard Ben Simmons, who is a short guards’ worst nightmare. I don’t expect to see Sexton and Garland on the floor together that much; JBB will probably put Okoro or Stevens on him and have our small guard check Seth Curry. Simmons only took 8 shots in the first game, scoring 15 points. He’s been hot lately, averaging 20.7 ppg in February. He’s only shooting 16.7% on 3’s, which is Lamar Stevens territory.
Embiid is the starting center for the Eastern Conference in the All-Star game but he’s been struggling lately. He’s 14-for-53 over the last three games so maybe we’re catching him at the right time. He leads the league in free throw attempts per game. Jarrett Allen is averaging an insanely low 1.5 fouls per game so it will be the center who gets fouled the most against the center who does the least fouling. I want to see if Allen can challenge his shots without fouling and force some misses.
The Cavs need to be aware of Seth Curry who is shooting 46.8% on 3’s. Don’t leave him alone to double someone else.
For the season the Sixers are a little above average offensively, ranking 14th in offensive efficiency, but without their second leading scorer they shouldn’t be quite that good. They’re first in fast break points per game so the Cavs need to get back on defense or harass Embiid after he gets a rebound to delay the outlet pass.
The Sixers don’t shoot many 3’s, ranking 26th in 3-rate. They’re average in both 3-point and 2-point percentage but excel in drawing fouls, ranking 1st in free throws per offensive play. This is due to Embiid, who leads the league with 11.7 foul shots per game. As a team the Sixers average 27.2 so Embiid is shooting a staggering 43% of the team’s free throws. Embiid will definitely try to muscle Allen in the low post given his 40 pound weight advantage. Since the Nets and Sixers play in the same division I’m sure these guys are pretty familiar with each other.
The Sixers are one of the best of the offensive glass, ranking 6th in offensive rebound percentage. The Cavs are near the bottom in defensive rebounding so this is a concern. However, the Sixers are 26th in turnovers while the Cavs are 5th in forcing turnovers so this is a potential problem for the men from Philly. If you steal the ball you don’t have to worry about the other team getting an offensive rebound.
The Sixers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Cavs are last in offensive efficiency so don’t expect another 100+ point explosion. The Sixers rank last in points allowed per game on fast breaks so the Cavs should be trying to push the ball up the floor at every opportunity and create open 3-point looks in transition rather than blocked layup attempts (I’m looking at you, Collin).
The Sixers are second in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage so Allen may have problems getting his shots to drop over Embiid and the Cavs should be putting up as many 3’s as possible.
So the Cavs have a few things going for them: The Sixers have only been beating losing teams lately, Embiid is struggling, and Harris is out. They turn the ball over a lot and the Cavs get a lot of steals. The Cavs are coming off back-to-back wins and have had two days off. Prince should be closer to 100% and we might even see a brief Kevin Love sighting.
For the Cavs to hang with the Sixers into the 4th quarter and give themselves a chance they need to do the following:
Ordinarily you’d think the Cavs have no shot especially since the Sixers have a record of 14-2 at home. But lately the Sixers have not been all that dominant. In their last 11 games they lost to Portland twice, Phoenix, Utah, and Toronto. All but Toronto are over .500 while the Raptors are one game under. The Sixers wins came against Dallas, Toronto, Houston, Chicago, and Sacramento. So every win was over a losing team and every loss but one was to a winning team. They’re looking like a slightly above average team lately but they do love that home cooking.
On top of that PF Tobias Harris, who is having an All-Star season according to Screamin’ Steven, is out with a knee problem. He’s averaging 20.2 points and 7.5 rebounds so his absence will be felt. Since the Cavs’ two best power forwards are out Harris’ loss really helps. Fortunately we won’t see a Harris/Dean Wade matchup.
In the first game the Cavs got a huge break with Embiid being out; this time it’s Harris, who put up a line of 16/9/5 with 3 steals in the first game. The starting lineup for that game was Drummond, Love, Nance, Sexton and Garland as Bickerstaff went with the “supersized” lineup to start the game. Unfortunately, Love pulled his calf after only 9 minutes and we haven’t seen him on the floor since.
The Cavs will also be missing Dante Exum, who came off the bench to post a +29. Nance and Andre were +21 and +27 so three guys no longer here were hugely instrumental in that win. With no Embiid in the paint Drummond had a big game.
However, I noticed that cbssports.com has Love listed as a game-time decision tonight. We’ve seen that before. Prince got a few minutes the other night in his first game back, going 1-for-8 in 8 minutes. Obviously he was a little rusty. I expect he’ll get more run tonight which could be significant because he’s shooting 41% on 3’s since coming to Cleveland and we’ll need to hit some 3’s to hang with the Sixers.
The Jarrett Allen/Joel Embiid matchup should be worth the price of a ticket and it will also be interesting to see how the Cavs small guards try to handle 6’11”, 240 pound point guard Ben Simmons, who is a short guards’ worst nightmare. I don’t expect to see Sexton and Garland on the floor together that much; JBB will probably put Okoro or Stevens on him and have our small guard check Seth Curry. Simmons only took 8 shots in the first game, scoring 15 points. He’s been hot lately, averaging 20.7 ppg in February. He’s only shooting 16.7% on 3’s, which is Lamar Stevens territory.
Embiid is the starting center for the Eastern Conference in the All-Star game but he’s been struggling lately. He’s 14-for-53 over the last three games so maybe we’re catching him at the right time. He leads the league in free throw attempts per game. Jarrett Allen is averaging an insanely low 1.5 fouls per game so it will be the center who gets fouled the most against the center who does the least fouling. I want to see if Allen can challenge his shots without fouling and force some misses.
The Cavs need to be aware of Seth Curry who is shooting 46.8% on 3’s. Don’t leave him alone to double someone else.
For the season the Sixers are a little above average offensively, ranking 14th in offensive efficiency, but without their second leading scorer they shouldn’t be quite that good. They’re first in fast break points per game so the Cavs need to get back on defense or harass Embiid after he gets a rebound to delay the outlet pass.
The Sixers don’t shoot many 3’s, ranking 26th in 3-rate. They’re average in both 3-point and 2-point percentage but excel in drawing fouls, ranking 1st in free throws per offensive play. This is due to Embiid, who leads the league with 11.7 foul shots per game. As a team the Sixers average 27.2 so Embiid is shooting a staggering 43% of the team’s free throws. Embiid will definitely try to muscle Allen in the low post given his 40 pound weight advantage. Since the Nets and Sixers play in the same division I’m sure these guys are pretty familiar with each other.
The Sixers are one of the best of the offensive glass, ranking 6th in offensive rebound percentage. The Cavs are near the bottom in defensive rebounding so this is a concern. However, the Sixers are 26th in turnovers while the Cavs are 5th in forcing turnovers so this is a potential problem for the men from Philly. If you steal the ball you don’t have to worry about the other team getting an offensive rebound.
The Sixers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Cavs are last in offensive efficiency so don’t expect another 100+ point explosion. The Sixers rank last in points allowed per game on fast breaks so the Cavs should be trying to push the ball up the floor at every opportunity and create open 3-point looks in transition rather than blocked layup attempts (I’m looking at you, Collin).
The Sixers are second in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage so Allen may have problems getting his shots to drop over Embiid and the Cavs should be putting up as many 3’s as possible.
So the Cavs have a few things going for them: The Sixers have only been beating losing teams lately, Embiid is struggling, and Harris is out. They turn the ball over a lot and the Cavs get a lot of steals. The Cavs are coming off back-to-back wins and have had two days off. Prince should be closer to 100% and we might even see a brief Kevin Love sighting.
For the Cavs to hang with the Sixers into the 4th quarter and give themselves a chance they need to do the following:
- Keep Embiid and Simmons from taking over the game. Make Embiid shoot contested shots rather than a slew of free throws and hope his slump isn’t over. Pack the paint on Simmons since he can’t shoot 3’s. Help out our small guards when Simmons posts them up without leaving Curry open for a 3 or Embiid uncontested under the rim.
- Don’t allow a ton of offensive rebounds. If Allen leaves Embiid to challenge a shot the forwards need to hit the glass hard.
- Don’t allow a ton of fast break points. Get back on D rather than standing there praying the shot goes in.
- Knock down open 3’s and don’t get trapped in the paint with Embiid looming and nobody to pass to (looking at you Garland and Sexton). Guys who don’t normally make 3’s but have been doing it lately (Okoro, Allen) need to keep it up. The main reason for watching this game, of course, is to see if white-hot rookie Dylan Winder can hit his first three 3-point attempts and break Kyrie’s and Delonte West's franchise record of 11 straight.
- Don’t let Curry knock down a slew of 3’s.
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