We finally come to the last game of the regular season. The good news is it won't be the last game of the year as it has been every year since LeBron left. The bad news is we play the Milwaukee Bucks, the defending NBA Champions and winners of 15 of their last 20 games and 8 of their last 10. The Cavs, on the other hand, have lost 17 of their last 25. These trains are going in opposite directions and fast.
The Bucks are in second place in the East, one game ahead of Boston. If the Celtics beat Memphis and the Bucks lose to the Cavs, the Celtics will finish 2nd due to having the tiebreaker advantage. Memphis is playing a meaningless game so I expect the Celtics to win. The Bucks need to beat the Cavs to hold onto second place.
If the Cavs win they hold onto 8th place (assuming the Nets beat Indy) and earn a rematch against Brooklyn on the road. If the Cavs lose they most likely will end up 10th.
Normally I would say the Cavs have no chance to beat the Bucks with Jarrett Allen out. However, injuries could be a factor. A report from SI.com says Giannis Antetokoumpo is "doubtful" to play. Another report says he is a game time decision. Giannis played 28 minutes against Detroit two nights ago with a line of 30/13/8 so he sure seemed healthy then. But if Giannis does not play it changes everything.
Kris Middleton is listed as a "game time decision". If he doesn't play that would be huge as well.
Brook Lopez was out for five months and returned four weeks ago. In his last four games he's averaging 18.5 points on 53.7% from the field and 43.8% on 3's. ESPN says he will not play today due to scheduled back maintenance. Lopez is 7'0", 282 pounds. The Cavs have nobody that can handle him physically. Lopez being out would be huge for the Cavs.
So at this point who knows? The Cavs are at home and gave the Nets a tough battle into the fourth quarter on Friday. If Giannis, Middleton, and Lopez are all out the Cavs will have a legitimate shot. George Hill and Grayson Allen are also out. And Bobby Portis, their backup center averaging 14.6 ppg, is also listed as a game time decision.
With so many question marks as to who is going to play for the Bucks this game is really tough to call. If everybody plays the Bucks are an extremely formidable team. Thursday they beat the red hot Celtics 127-121. The Celtics have the #1 scoring defense in the NBA, allowing 104 points per game, but the Bucks burned them for 127. They scored 127 or more points in each of their last three games. But if Giannis and Lopez are out the Cavs have a shot.
The Cavs signature win of the season was their 115-99 win at Milwaukee on Jan. 26. The Bucks had all their stars on the floor. Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday combined for 69 points on 25-for-43 from the field and 14-for-15 on free throws. But the rest of their team scored only 30 points on 12-for-37. Love and Cedi combined for 48 points as the Cavs' bench thrashed the Bucks' bench 57-15. The Cavs had Allen that game but not Markannen.
So this game could go either way depending on the Bucks' injury situation. However, we've seen plenty of games where one team's stars were missing but their reserves got a chance to start and had career games. So the Cavs are going to have to be focused and totally on point even if Giannis, Lopez, and/or Middleton are out.
The fact that the Bucks are resting Lopez might indicate they don't think it's that big a deal whether they finish 2nd or 3rd and the more important consideration is to have their stars rested and ready to play 40+ minutes once the playoffs start.
If the Cavs pull out a win they will most likely lose to Brooklyn Tuesday. I don't see Kyrie and Durant letting the Cavs steal a win and force the Nets to play another play-in game. So it will come down to a home game on Friday against the Charlotte/Atlanta winner. If the Cavs lose today they have to win against both Charlotte and Atlanta on the road in order to get in the playoffs.
The best thing might be they fail to qualify and keep their first round lottery pick.
