The Cavs finally return home to face another team with a future HOF point guard, this time the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are 3-4 overall and 0-3 on the road. They will be playing their third game in four nights on the road after losing to Charlotte and Philly on Sunday and Monday. The Sixers were without Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and of course Ben Simmons but they still won by 10.
When the Blazers are cooking they’re very good, having beaten Phoenix by 29, Memphis by 20, and the Clippers by 19. But they have yet to win on the road. Last year they were 42-30, good for 6th place in the West.
Damian Lillard is averaging a respectable 18.6 points and 8.6 assists per game, but he’s only shooting 34.9% overall and 23.1% from deep - way, way below his career numbers. Is he starting to slip at age 31?
C.J. McCollum is plugging along at 23.7 ppg, shooting 44.4% and 42.6%. Norman Powell, their other sniper, is at 15.6 ppg on 50.0% and 40.0%. He’s also hitting 93% of his free throws as he attempts a 50/40/90 season.
The center is 6’11”, 290 pound Jusuf Nurkic, who I’m sure Jarett Allen isn’t looking forward to banging with. Nurkic is averaging 12 and 12 in 25.3 minutes. He only plays half the game but we may see more of him tonight.
Nurkic leads the NBA in “screen assist points” at 15.3 per game. I assume that means he sets screens which result in teammates scoring a basket. The Cavs will have to have a game plan for that because this 290 pound Sasquatch is going to be setting screens on Sexton, Garland, and Rubio all night.
Nurkic is third in the league in “deflections” at 4.6 per game, so the Cavs need to be aware of him lurking in the passing lanes. He’s only averaging one block per game.
The “power forward” is 6’7”, 209 pound Robert Covington, averaging 4.6 points and 5.0 rebounds while shooting 34.4%.
So the starting guards are 6’2”, 6’3”, and 6’3”, the forward is 6’7” and the center is 6’11”. One of those 6’3” guards is going to have to check Markkanen or Mobley. And Covington will have to guard the other.
Anfernee Simons, 6’3”, comes off the bench for 23 minutes a game and is shooting 50.7% and 44.4%. Larry Nance, Jr is getting 17.7 minutes with a line of 5.9/5.3/0.9.
So this is a small, offensive oriented team that scores a lot. They’re 8th in scoring. They rank 24th in percentage of points on 2-point shots and 5th in percentage from 3’s, so clearly they prefer to fire away from deep. They’re 5th in 3-point rate, so the Cavs need to focus on defending the 3-point line, especially when Powell, McCollum, and Simons have the ball as they are all killing it from long range.
The Blazers are very good at getting second chances as they rank 8th in offensive rebound percentage. The Cavaliers are 29th in defensive rebounding and are coming off a game where they allowed 21 offensive boards. Big vulnerability for the Cavs.
This has the potential to be a high scoring game for the Blazers between the deadly three-point shooting and tons of offensive rebounds. The Cavs wings and guards need to help out on the glass when Portland shoots from deep because missed 3’s result in lots of long rebounds. Sexton, Garland, Rubio, Cedi et al can’t be leaking out - they need to get to the elbows and get those long rebounds.
It’s critical that the Cavs challenge the three-pointers, force misses, and get the rebound off the first missed shot.
Defensively the Blazers are a little below average, ranking 18th. Their weakness is defending the 3-point shot where they rank 25th.
They’re a little below average in block and steal percentage and they’re very good on the defensive glass, ranking 5th. Better make your first shot.
But the Blazers have not played a team like the Cavs with three players 6’11” or taller, so it will be interesting to see a battle between a small, offensive oriented, 3-point shooting team and a big, defensive oriented, pound it inside and exploit the height advantage team. Old school versus new school.
Definitely a contrast in styles and it should be fun to watch.
The last time these teams played was in Cleveland late last season. The Blazers won 141-105. Lillard scored 32. Carmelo Anthony and Enis Kanter combined for 34 points and 18 rebounds off the bench. They’re no longer with the team. For the Cavs it was Wade, Dotson, Thomas, Varajao, Kebengele, Hartenstein, and Martin off the bench. We won’t see any of them, either, except Wade. Love and Osman were the starting forwards. What a difference a year makes.
For those interested in the big picture concerning the Blazers, here are a few blurbs from Hollinger’s season preview.
Recently, they’ve only gone backward: Since the Blazers’ heady talk about winning championships following a 2019 conference finals run, they’re 77-69 and have won three playoff games.
Lillard is 31 now, and while he’s still at his All-NBA peak, he surely hears the clock ticking more loudly in the background…the other looming question over Portland is how long Lillard can remain at this absurdly high level offensively. Even if he were to just softly decline to merely All-Star rather than All-League, it would have pretty severe implications for any potential contender equity here.
Projection
Same as it ever was in Portland: Lillard virtually guarantees a top-tier offense by himself, while the lack of secondary stars and impact defenders put a cap on how far he can take them. Portland, as per its custom, will point to its net rating with its best lineup on the floor, (the Blazers were plus-13.0 points per 100 possessions with Powell and the other four projected starters)…This is where Portland’s offseason additions can make a dent. Nance is a good defensive player; Zeller and Snell are solid. Nurkic is a year further removed from a leg injury that seemed to cost him some mobility last season. The Blazers also seem likely to switch away from their passive coverages to something more aggressive…
Concerns remain. This might be the worst second unit of perimeter players in the league (Snell, McLemore and Simons), at least among teams that are actually trying to win….if multiple injuries hit at once, Portland has a problem. Up front, Nance, Zeller and Nurkic all have missed a lot of time in recent seasons; if they’re out, it’s a freeway to the rim. And, of course, Billups is an unknown in his first season on the sideline.
Regardless, this should be a playoff team. Lillard will make sure of that for as long as he’s here. It’s just not clear how the Blazers can achieve aspirations beyond that.
