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After splitting two games in Texas the Cavs return home for their first game of the season against the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are 15-14 overall, 6-8 on the road, and have lost 8 of their last 13.
They did beat Golden State 125-119 on Wednesday at home, but Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins were out and Steph Curry was injured and had to leave after scoring 38 points in 30 minutes. Golden State is now 14-15.
I see Indiana as a mediocre Eastern Conference team. cleaningtheglass.com ranks the Pacers 18th in offense and 19th in defense, just slightly below average in each area.
They are 17th in offensive efficiency and 16th in effective field goal percentage. They play fast, ranking 11th in field goal attempts per game and 45% of their shots are 3’s, 4th highest in the NBA. They are 10th in 3-point accuracy. It adds up to ranking 3rd in 3-pointers made per game.
They love to run, ranking 2nd in fast break points per game, which is their strongest area on offense. It’s critical to avoid turnovers and get back on defense off missed shots and not let them get uncontested 3’s in transition.
They are only 27th in offensive rebound percentage so the key is to make them miss the first shot.
Defensively the Pacers are not good, ranking 23rd in points per game. They are especially weak on the glass, ranking 28th in defensive rebound percentage. You can get second chance points on this team.
They also foul a lot, ranking 27th in opponents’ free throw attempts per possession.
The two areas they excel defensively is blocked shot percentage (2nd) and steals per play (6th). Myles Turner is an excellent shot blocker but otherwise they don’t have any quality bigs which is why they give up a lot of offensive boards. My guess is Turner tries to block a lot of shots and when he doesn’t get the block it leaves the offensive glass wide open.
They rank 6th in forcing turnovers which leads to their high ranking in fast break points, so the key for the Cavs is to avoid turnovers and getting their shots blocked which leads to easy fast break buckets.
PG Tyrese Haliburton is the Pacers’ best player, averaging 19.8 points and 10.6 assists, which leads the NBA. He’s hitting 48% overall and 40% from the field and appears sure to be an All-Star selection. He’s 6’5” so the Cavs might put Stevens and LeVert on him.
SG Buddy Hield averages 17.7 points on 44% and 38%. In December Hield is heating up, averaging 43% on 3’s. He is a threat to have a big game at any time if he gets locked in.
C Myles Turner, 6’11”, 250, averages 17.6 points and 7.7 rebounds, not to mention 2.3 blocked shots. He’s hitting 56% of his field goal attempts and 43% of his 3’s. He’s really having a great season and the matchup between him and Jarrett Allen will be a great one.
PF Jalen Smith averages 10.6 points in 22 minutes per game. SF Aaron Nesmith averages 8.0 points on 39%. SG Benedict Mathurin averages 17.8 points off the bench in 29 minutes. Reserves Chris Duarte and Daniel Theis are out.
In summary, the Cavs are 12-2 at home playing an average team that is 6-8 on the road. The Pacers are average offensively but excel at forcing turnovers and fast break points so the Cavs need to take care of the ball and not give up a lot of easy points off turnovers, blocked shots, or missed shots. If they make this game a half-court contest they should prevail.
The Cavs should be able to get a lot of offensive rebounds and second chance points. They shoot 3’s better at home and the Pacers are below average at defending 3’s, so the Cavs should have good success from deep and grab some offensive boards when they miss.
The Pacers have four players who average 17-19 points per game, but no superstars. Nobody else averages more than 11 points. They launch a ton of 3’s so switching off and contesting 3-point shots will be key for the Cavs’ defense.
The Cavs play the Mavs tomorrow so if they could limit their starters' minutes tonight it would help.
They did beat Golden State 125-119 on Wednesday at home, but Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins were out and Steph Curry was injured and had to leave after scoring 38 points in 30 minutes. Golden State is now 14-15.
I see Indiana as a mediocre Eastern Conference team. cleaningtheglass.com ranks the Pacers 18th in offense and 19th in defense, just slightly below average in each area.
They are 17th in offensive efficiency and 16th in effective field goal percentage. They play fast, ranking 11th in field goal attempts per game and 45% of their shots are 3’s, 4th highest in the NBA. They are 10th in 3-point accuracy. It adds up to ranking 3rd in 3-pointers made per game.
They love to run, ranking 2nd in fast break points per game, which is their strongest area on offense. It’s critical to avoid turnovers and get back on defense off missed shots and not let them get uncontested 3’s in transition.
They are only 27th in offensive rebound percentage so the key is to make them miss the first shot.
Defensively the Pacers are not good, ranking 23rd in points per game. They are especially weak on the glass, ranking 28th in defensive rebound percentage. You can get second chance points on this team.
They also foul a lot, ranking 27th in opponents’ free throw attempts per possession.
The two areas they excel defensively is blocked shot percentage (2nd) and steals per play (6th). Myles Turner is an excellent shot blocker but otherwise they don’t have any quality bigs which is why they give up a lot of offensive boards. My guess is Turner tries to block a lot of shots and when he doesn’t get the block it leaves the offensive glass wide open.
They rank 6th in forcing turnovers which leads to their high ranking in fast break points, so the key for the Cavs is to avoid turnovers and getting their shots blocked which leads to easy fast break buckets.
PG Tyrese Haliburton is the Pacers’ best player, averaging 19.8 points and 10.6 assists, which leads the NBA. He’s hitting 48% overall and 40% from the field and appears sure to be an All-Star selection. He’s 6’5” so the Cavs might put Stevens and LeVert on him.
SG Buddy Hield averages 17.7 points on 44% and 38%. In December Hield is heating up, averaging 43% on 3’s. He is a threat to have a big game at any time if he gets locked in.
C Myles Turner, 6’11”, 250, averages 17.6 points and 7.7 rebounds, not to mention 2.3 blocked shots. He’s hitting 56% of his field goal attempts and 43% of his 3’s. He’s really having a great season and the matchup between him and Jarrett Allen will be a great one.
PF Jalen Smith averages 10.6 points in 22 minutes per game. SF Aaron Nesmith averages 8.0 points on 39%. SG Benedict Mathurin averages 17.8 points off the bench in 29 minutes. Reserves Chris Duarte and Daniel Theis are out.
In summary, the Cavs are 12-2 at home playing an average team that is 6-8 on the road. The Pacers are average offensively but excel at forcing turnovers and fast break points so the Cavs need to take care of the ball and not give up a lot of easy points off turnovers, blocked shots, or missed shots. If they make this game a half-court contest they should prevail.
The Cavs should be able to get a lot of offensive rebounds and second chance points. They shoot 3’s better at home and the Pacers are below average at defending 3’s, so the Cavs should have good success from deep and grab some offensive boards when they miss.
The Pacers have four players who average 17-19 points per game, but no superstars. Nobody else averages more than 11 points. They launch a ton of 3’s so switching off and contesting 3-point shots will be key for the Cavs’ defense.
The Cavs play the Mavs tomorrow so if they could limit their starters' minutes tonight it would help.
