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Game Thread | Game #37 | Cavs @ Bulls | Dec. 31, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The Cavaliers head to Chi Town for the first of two back-to-back games against the Bulls; tonight in Chicago and Monday back in Cleveland. The Bulls are 16-19 after beating Detroit last night 132-118 at home. Zach LaVine had 43 points in 38 minutes. Hopefully he’s a little tired after that effort.

The Cavs had yesterday off but could be missing Darius Garland, who is listed as a game time decision with a sprained thumb. He did not practice yesterday. Evan Mobley is also listed as a game time decision with an ankle issue. The Bulls are in good shape except for Lonzo Ball, who they haven’t had all season.

These teams played in the third game of the season with the Cavs cruising to a 128-96 laugher in Chicago. Garland missed that game but Mitchell scored 32 and Cedi Osman was a +41 in 27 minutes off the bench. Kevin Love was a +27 as the Cavs’ bench had a big night. The Bulls had played at Washington the night before. This game will also be their second in two nights, but no travel this time.

The Bulls are 9-8 at home and have won five of their last six games including an overtime win over Milwaukee, a game where the Bucks were 9-for-44 on 3’s and missed 10 free throws.

The Bulls are heavily dependent on DeMar DeRozan (26 points per game), Zach LaVine (22 points), and Nikola Vucevic (17 points) for their scoring. Nobody else averages in double figures.

The Bulls are a small team like the Pacers. Vucevic is 6’10”, Patrick Williams is 6’7”, and their other three starters are 6’4” to 6’6”. Of their top nine players in minutes played only Vucevic and Williams are taller than 6’6”. They do have Andre Drummond, however, who averages 14 minutes.

cleaningtheglass.com ranks the Bulls 19th in offense and 17th in defense which is pretty consistent with the NBA rankings where they are 16th in scoring and 18th in scoring defense. They’re pretty much average across the board.

Offensively they are 20th in points in the paint and 28th in percentage of points on 3’s. They are last in the NBA in 3-rate - no team shoots fewer 3’s. However, they are 11th in 3-point accuracy, suggesting they only shoot them when they’re uncontested.

They prefer the mid-range shot, ranking 1st in mid-range frequency and 8th in accuracy. DeRo loves the 15-foot jumper and he’s very good at it. The Bulls rank 27th in offensive rebound percentage so the key is to make them miss the first shot. In the first game the Cavs held DeRo to 13 points as he only took 9 shots in 33 minutes. It was his third lowest scoring game of the year.

Defensively the Bulls are not good at preventing buckets, ranking 26th in effective field goal percentage and 29th in opponents’ 3-point percentage. The reason they’re 18th in scoring defense is they lead the league in defensive rebound percentage and are 9th in forcing turnovers. The key is to avoid turnovers, get your shot up, and make the first one.

In the first game the Cavs took advantage of the Bulls’ awful perimeter defense, hitting 16 of 27 on their 3-point attempts (59%). Love was 5-for-6, Mitchell 4-for-6, and Cedi 2-for-3. Cedi missed the Pacers’ game Thursday but I don’t see him on the injury report.

The Bulls are playing well right now, winning five of their last six including wins over Miami, Atlanta, and New York on the road. If the Cavs are without both Garland and Mobley this game may not be winnable unless the Cavs manage to shoot 59% from deep and hold DeRo to 13 points again. At least the Bulls had to play last night and LaVine was on the court for 38 minutes. DeRozan played 35 minutes at age 33 so he may be a little tired tonight. In the first game where he scored 13 he was on the second night of a back-to-back.

I imagine the Cavs will alternate Okoro and Stevens on LaVine and try to make him work hard to get the ball and then to get his shots off, hoping he tires by the fourth quarter. In the first game the Cavs won the 4th quarter 35-18. Same for DeRo, who I assume will be checked by LaVert. Make him work hard for his points.

The Cavs had a nice game from deep against the Pacers on Thursday, hitting 43% of their 3’s. They need to keep that up tonight if they are to have a chance and they’re going to have to play better defense. The last three games, all losses, they gave up 118, 125, and 135 points and got killed on 3’s, allowing a 54% success rate.

The Bulls shoot fewer 3’s than anybody, so maybe the Cavs can hold them to 98 again, or something in that neighborhood. The Bulls are coming off a 132-point effort last night, however, and their offense is humming. I think Mobley is key to contesting those 15-footers by DeRo and also challenging LaVine when he gets to the rim, so this could come down to whether Evan can go.

I'll watch the Cavs game and tape the Peach Bowl and watch it immediately after. It's going to be a late night. Happy New Year everybody! Hopefully we can ring it in with wins by the Cavs and Buckeyes but I'm not real optimistic about either and certainly not both.
 
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Just gonna take a wild guess - Bulls will eclipse some sort of season high when it comes to 3’s
 
Not good about Mobley and Garland. Michell and Allen can carry us, but they must bring their A game.

I put us at a 40% chance of winning without those two starters. 112-110, if we win.
 
We are lucky DGs thumb was only sprained and not fractured.

Mobley having right ankle soreness would explain some things lately, but he also had right knee soreness not too long ago. I wonder if they're related?
 
Bulls should hit at least 50% from the 3-point line. If they watched film of the last three Cavs' games they're going to come out jacking up 3's from the jump.
 
Wait!!!! I figured no Garland because of the hand. What’s up with Mobley?
 
From Cleveland Plain Dealer: “Mobley is currently experiencing soreness in his right ankle and the Cavs are being cautious. While the youngster missed time in training camp and the preseason because of a right ankle sprain, he’s appeared in all 36 games this season, averaging 14.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.3 blocks.”

Jesus!!!! Don’t they tape up ankles anymore??
 

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