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Game Thread | Game #52 | Clippers @ Cavs | Jan. 29, 2023

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The Cavs return home after a 1-2 road trip to face the 28-24 Los Angeles Clippers. The Cavs are 20-5 at home while the Clippers are 14-13 on the road. The Cavs were off Saturday while the Clippers played in Atlanta, winning 120-113. The Clippers will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back on the road and their third game in four days.

The scheduling could be significant since the Clippers are an older team. Paul George and Reggie Jackson are 32, and Kawhi Leonard is 31. Leonard has only played in 27 of their 52 games and has yet to play two nights in a row, so I’m wondering if he will even suit up. Marcus Morris Sr, 33, has a rib injury and missed last night’s game. He is listed as a game time decision. The Clippers are short on big men so his loss would be significant.

These teams played in LA on Nov. 7 with the Clippers squeaking out a 119-117 win, despite not having Leonard. The Cavs led by 8 points with under two minutes to go and somehow threw away a W with some help from the referees who failed to call a foul on a critical Garland turnover. The Clippers were 17-for-38 on 3’s.

The Clippers are clearly in a win now mode with George, Leonard, Morris and Jackson all over 30 and with a veteran supporting cast of Terance Mann, Luke Kennard, Norman Powell, Nick Batum, and starting center Ivica Zubac. Zubac averages 29 minutes a game and the other 19 minutes they mostly use a power forward at center, something the Cavs might be able to exploit.

The Clippers have some sharpshooters coming off the bench as Batum and Kennard are hitting 48% and 43% from deep, respectively. As a team they are very good from deep, which makes them dangerous. Last night they shot 48.7% on 3’s, making 19 against Atlanta.

Paul George is their leading scorer at 23.5 points per game. Kawhi Leonard is right behind at 21 points on 53% from the field. Norman Powell is at 16.5 points on 51% from the field and 46% on 3’s. Marcus Morris Sr averages 13 points and Reggie Jackson 11.

On paper the Clippers appear to be an average team - their point differential is +0.3, which means they’ve outscored their opponents by about 20 total points in 52 games. However, it must be noted that George has only played in 35 games and Leonard in 26 games. The Clippers are a much different team without one or the other, so I’m not going to go through their season stats.

The Clippers are 21-14 when George plays and 6-10 when he does not. It’s the same with Leonard; they’re 17-9 when he plays and 10-15 when he’s out. So far this season Leonard has never played on two consecutive nights. He was on the floor last night for 39 minutes. I’m wondering if he will sit tonight. He’s only played 50% of their games this season and they are trying to keep him healthy - they are well below .500 when he does not play.

In games where George plays and Leonard does not the Clippers are 8-7. Leonard leads the Clippers in on/off at +13.5 and George is second at +11.5. None of their other starters are in positive territory; without one or both of their stars the Clippers are a below average team.

The Clippers rank 22nd in offensive efficiency but that’s with George and Leonard missing a lot of games. In the last two weeks they rank 1st in offensive efficiency at 129 points per game and 25th in defensive efficiency at 122.5 points per game. This could be a high scoring game for both teams if both the Clippers’ stars play. The Clippers scored 119 points on the Cavs in November with Leonard out.

Hopefully Donovan Mitchell will be ready to go for the Cavs but he’s listed as questionable so he probably won’t go.

The Clippers rank 10th in defensive efficiency on the season but cleaningtheglass.com has them 25th in the last two weeks. They’ve been giving up a lot of points lately for some reason.

The Clippers like to shoot 3’s, ranking 12th in frequency and 6th in accuracy. On the road they’re shooting 39% on 3’s for the season, which is best in the NBA. They are not great inside, ranking 22nd in frequency of shots at the rim and 24th in accuracy. They are 28th in points in the paint. This is an outside shooting team. They play slowly (27th in possessions per game) and like to isolate and go one-on-one (25th in assists).

Being the third worst team at scoring inside and facing a team that features Allen and Mobley, I expect the Clippers to be raining 3’s. They average 33 per game but I won’t be surprised if they put up 40, especially if they are tired. It takes a lot more energy to try to get through a defense to the rim than to jack up a 3.

If I were JB I would put Mobley on Paul George and Dean Wade on Kawhi Leonard, if he plays. Allen needs to stay on the 7’0” Zubac.

Offensively the Cavs should just take advantage of whatever matchups present themselves. Mobley should have the height advantage over whoever checks him, assuming Zubac takes Allen.

Luke Kennard is scoring 133.7 points per 100 shots, putting him in the top 4% of all wings. He started last night. Norman Powell is in the 84th percentile in points per shot. These guys can kill you if they get going. It will be ALL about perimeter defense tonight.

Hopefully the 30-somethings on the Clippers will be tired from playing the Hawks last night and then the long flight from Atlanta. It would be great if they sat Leonard for maintenance. It looks like they are trying to nurse him through the season.

From si.com before last night’s game:

The LA Clippers and Atlanta Hawks face off in a game that's incredibly important to both teams, but a little bit more important for the Clippers…While it's important in the standings for both teams, the Clippers have an incredibly hard schedule ahead and have to take out any middling teams while they can. LA has the hardest remaining strength of schedule by a wide margin…

So it appears the Clippers sold out to beat the Hawks last night as Leonard and George played 39 and 37 minutes. They may sit Leonard against the Cavs rather than ask him to play almost an entire game, take a long flight, and they play the next night against an Eastern Conference team that is 20-5 at home. He had 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists last night, by the way, so he wasn’t pacing himself.

Morris may still be out and they may not want Paul George playing heavy minutes back-to-back. We’ll just have to see who plays for LA and how effective they are under the circumstances. If both Leonard and George are kept out then we could have another scenario like the Golden State game where the Cavs played the W’s bench and got blown away. The Clippers have enough 3-point shooters to pull it off. Take away the two stars and the others went 11-for-20 from deep last night.

If George, Leonard, and Morris are all out the Clippers will only have one player in their normal rotation over 6’5” - Zubac, and he played 37 minutes last night. Mobley could feast in that situation.

The Cavs had this team beat in LA and choked it away with some help from the refs. I’m sure they want some payback. Caris LeVert is coming off a 1-for-12 game at OKC and will be looking to get back on the horse.
 
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Team better strike tonight. Throwing away winnable games (GS, NY, OKC). Standings are getting too tight.
 
Whoa! George and Leonard both out, which doesn't surprise me, and Morris is still questionable after missing last night's game. But Kennard and Jackson being on the list is new. If all of them are out the Clippers are missing their two best players by far, their starting power forward, and two key rotation pieces.

This will be like the Golden State game all over again. Hopefully the Cavs won't let Mann, Batum, and Powell rain 3-pointers on them all night. At least the Cavs should have a big height advantage in the paint, but they had that against the Warriors and still lost.
 
We should absolutely NOT play Mitchell, especially with PG3 and Kawhi out

The most important thing for this team is that Mitchell is 100% healthy entering the playoffs. Letting this groin injury become a nagging injury that never quite heals over the season would be a disaster
 
Moral victory incoming.

Seriously, though… there is zero excuse not to run this team out of the gym.

This is one of those games where the coaches normal preference to play at a slower pace should adjust to these circumstances. When the opposing side's bench is this short, you have to run them out of the gym
 
Cool I guess we’ll get lit up by Reggie Jackson and Luke Kennard now

This is no joke. Those guys can shoot.

This is a good game to see whether JBB can actually design a defense to negate the three point shot, because it couldn’t be more obvious what their strategy will be
 
C Zubac 7'0"
PF Batum 6'8" (age 34)
SF Kennard 6'5"
SG Powell 6'3"
PF Jackson 6'2" (age 32)

Bench:

Mann 6'5" (4th year, 75 career starts)
Boston 6'6" (2021 2nd round pick)
Coffey 6'7" (4th year, 40 career starts)
Diabate 6'10" (rookie 2nd round pick)

We're dead meat.
 

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