Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[I'mWithDan]

You said last year Porter was nothing special. There were hundreds of guys with his profile. He outperformed Barrett on a per minute basis.

You are championing KPJ as your burn down analytical case still? It is not even worth talking through that. He was 47th in the draft in VORP this season. I typically wait to see how it shakes out after a few years but he has proven nothing at this point. He had a low probability of being a top VORP player from his draft.....and from what I see, he still does. Anyway. I don't want to get distracted by this KPJ thing.

Tell the truth, would you have drafted either Jalen Brown or Kawhi in the top ten? I say no. There is more to these guys than their numbers. I have never ever seen a guy with body control and touch like Okoro fail to learn to shoot.

Brown no, Kawhi yes. Kawhi was a really weird one. He profiled as a top 5 pick in that 2011 draft. All the analytical markers were there to take him and no one did. But it was 2011 and we have certainly come a long way since then from a data analysis standpoint. It is possible too many teams relied on out dated scouting measures still.

Brown was an exceptionally rare case. He had one of the worst analytical draft profiles, relative to his position, in the possession era. When you look at that list of guys, the bottom list Brown landed in......he is the only player out of the 22 (6% of the database) who landed in that tier and went on to be a VORP or better player. Exceptions tell you it is possible but the data still says it is really unlikely.

If you extend it further, there are 60 possession era players in the below average tier Okoro landed in. Only 4 have been VORP or better players (7%). In the tier Okongwu landed in, there were 32 players in the possession era. 21 of the 32 have already emerged as VORP or better players (66%). A third of the time, guys in that group are all-stars.

That is my big hangup here. I just think there was far more certainty in OO succeeding. Okoro may be good.....but all the data says he's in a low success rate group. Does that mean the Cavs front office won't look smart a few years from now? No.....it is just tough to understand what the rational was internally when two players at a position of need produced at such vastly different levels.

I'm not saying Okoro is doomed but it is definitely a case where I have trouble squaring why he would be the selection, relative to how OO graded out. I'll be curious to see what happens in this draft. In the lottery, there were 3 guys flagged as higher than average bust candidates: Okoro, Williams and Anthony. I'm curious to see how those guys do in their first few years.

 

[ansatsusha80]

His interview after being selected...

 

[Pioneer10]

6'6 SF freshman from Auburn, projected to go in the top 10. Very good defender + slasher with limited shooting. Seems to have high bball IQ.


Is he on the Cavs radar?

Well he's got tree trunk legs like another Auburn grad who was listed at 6'5". Hopefully he can get that jumper fixed and he can have a career half as good
The shooting does worry me as he wasn't even a good FT shooter so the MKG worries are legit but if he can he looks like has all the other tools to be very good.

 

[Lee]

He knows who he is and who his audience is, that is something for sure.

 

[Pioneer10]

It matters a little, but I still think it's getting down too much in the weeds. He's going to measure at least an inch taller than Wade, for instance, who's one of the great slasher/finishers in NBA history. Similarly, it's not hard to find examples of 6'5" guys who're among the most versatile defenders in the league.



I kinda see that? But what does Okoro's ability to defend 4's and 5's have to do with our small backcourt? If Okoro can defend 1's and 2's that's arguably more important in terms of fit than if he can defend 4's and 5's.

Wade had a freakishly long wingspan which definitely helped him: i think he stretched out to 6'11". He had a low center of gravity while still being able to to reach like a tall SF. Does Okoro have that kind of wingspan?

 

[NMCav]

Wade had a freakishly long wingspan which definitely helped him: i think he stretched out to 6'11". He had a low center of gravity while still being able to to reach like a tall SF. Does Okoro have that kind of wingspan?

No Okoro is 6-6 with a 6-9 Wingspan. He's a bit taller but doesn't have the same wingspan.

 

[MirORich]

The sample size is small of course but here’s the splits between early non conference games and conference play.

3P % Games 1-12: 20%
3P % Games 13- 28: 33%

FT % Games 1-12: 64%
FT % Games 13-28: 69%

He also took more threes per game and got too the line more often during SEC conference play. Trends in the right direction as the season went on.

Watching him in some full game cut ups, on offense you see exactly what his coach Bruce Pearl said on the ESPN draft show: he’s very decisive and the ball does not stick. He very quickly takes the shot, drives to the basket, or makes the right pass. In situations where there are open men in the corners, the second he gets the pass he quickly swings it to the open guy for 3. Out of the post, whether from post ups, drives or offensive rebounds, he makes a lot of nice passes to open three point shots.

 

[MirORich]

He knows who he is and who his audience is, that is something for sure.

Check the date. Not that it really means anything, but this was a tweet from 2016, not a post draft pandering to the new fanbase

 

[NMCav]

Useless fact. But Isaac Okoro has the same Birthday as Darius Garland. January 26th.

 

[FrontPageNews]

I hope JB tells okoro to take every 3 he wants this year. Let him develop and give him confidence. We’re not contending soon anyway.

 

[pinoycavsfan]

 

[Green Lantern]

You guys are trying to compare a 19 kid to anybody........... How about we compare 19 year old YOU to somebody............

I really don't like comparing a kid to a estabished NBA player for various reasons..these guys pan out different ways .

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

“Long guys, athletic guys, fast guys. To steal the term from my friend, David Fizdale, he calls ‘em Swiss Army knives,” Bickerstaff said last month. “Those types of players that can do a bunch of different things, especially on the defensive end of the floor. And then offensively, having the ability to break guys down off the bounce. If you get into the paint, it makes the game so much easier for everybody else. If you have the ability to make shots once you get in the paint, it eases up the game for everybody else, and then being able to make those plays.”

Nothing about shooting jump shots.

The Athletic scouting report (see next post) talks about how well he finishes but also how well he drills passes to open shooters on the perimeter after getting into the paint. Love, Sexton, Garland, Windler - they're going to love this guy.

Spread it out, move the ball, have IO, Porter, or Sexton take it to the rim and score or kick out for an open 3. I can see this guy being a monster in transition, too.

His intensity on defense is going to force the rest of the team to up their games. And going against him in practice will make everybody's offense better.

My only concern is who plays the 5 if TT and Dre are gone after this season (or sooner). Do we sign Kosta Koufos? Bring Zizic back? Draft a 5 next spring? Or play positionless basketball?

 

[avs2000]

“Long guys, athletic guys, fast guys. To steal the term from my friend, David Fizdale, he calls ‘em Swiss Army knives,” Bickerstaff said last month. “Those types of players that can do a bunch of different things, especially on the defensive end of the floor. And then offensively, having the ability to break guys down off the bounce. If you get into the paint, it makes the game so much easier for everybody else. If you have the ability to make shots once you get in the paint, it eases up the game for everybody else, and then being able to make those plays.”

Nothing about shooting jump shots.

The Athletic scouting report (see next post) talks about how well he finishes but also how well he drills passes to open shooters on the perimeter after getting into the paint. Love, Sexton, Garland, Windler - they're going to love this guy.

Spread it out, move the ball, have IO, Porter, or Sexton take it to the rim and score or kick out for an open 3. I can see this guy being a monster in transition, too.

His intensity on defense is going to force the rest of the team to up their games. And going against him in practice will make everybody's offense better.

My only concern is who plays the 5 if TT and Dre are gone after this season (or sooner). Do we sign Kosta Koufos? Bring Zizic back? Draft a 5 next spring? Or play positionless basketball?

Love the pick. We needed the defense

 

[PIP]

When I said I wanted an Ira Newble with some Jamario Moon explosiveness this is exactly what I was talking about...