Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[weepinwillow]

I think it's easy to perceive an individual player's contributions incorrect over a short period of time. Especially when we're winning and it's all good vibes.

Okoro played seven games in the last 30 days. He's gone 3/12 from 3 during over those 7 games and 17/25 from the FT line. Percentages in line with the profile of his career thus far and the sample size is too small to matter anyways.

If you look further, back to the Bulls game where he looked like a light bulb was starting go off after a real rough outing v the Bucks, he's averaging 12 points on .602/.467/.722 shooting splits. (which includes the clunkers vs Indiana and the Pels). Doubtful he keeps up the shooting splits, but .455/.336/.700 isn't out of the realm of possibility, and would make him an extremely valaubale two way G for this group. He's already a valuable G for this group.

If you marry the numbers with the eye-test you should be seeing a picture of a top level defender who is growing into his offense as a 5th option.

 

[Alec]

The hard pill for me to swallow is the fact that he cannot guard 3-5. I actually buy into the idea that he will be our best perimeter defender against 1’s and 2’s. but this means he is a true guard by definition. Having a true guard who cannot generate their own offense, or shoot at NBA average levels, is a problem…if they’re going to be playing a ton of minutes. Imagine your 2 guard being the fifth offensive option.

this is why I have no problem moving Isaac for a good offensive SG/SF. Those players are harder to find. Isaac being so bad offensively puts a lot of pressure on every other position to be that much better on that end.

You can find adequate defenders of the 1 and 2 on the couch.

 

[2 For The Brew]

I think it's more like fans are getting excited that we could actually go deep into the playoffs this year and they're looking for ways to upgrade the starting lineup.

The starting lineup will upgrade itself over time. They're kids who haven't played 50 games together. If we can make an upgrade at the margins, fine. Other than possibly upgrading the 3, though, our starters are doing great.

 

[weepinwillow]

The hard pill for me to swallow is the fact that he cannot guard 3-5. I actually buy into the idea that he will be our best perimeter defender against 1’s and 2’s. but this means he is a true guard by definition. Having a true guard who cannot generate their own offense, or shoot at NBA average levels, is a problem…if they’re going to be playing a ton of minutes. Imagine your 2 guard being the fifth offensive option.

this is why I have no problem moving Isaac for a good offensive SG/SF. Those players are harder to find. Isaac being so bad offensively puts a lot of pressure on every other position to be that much better on that end.

You can find adequate defenders of the 1 and 2 on the couch.

I'd argue that not having a second unit creator is a much bigger problem then having Okoro be a creator with the first unit. We are going to get Rondo back, but I'm not sure that's going to really scratch that itch enough.

Ability to guard 1-2 shouldn't be dismissed with this group of starters, as it allows you to keep Garland hidden a bit from his least developed skill.

I think they should still let Okoro run a play or two out of the pick and roll from time to time just to have him keep working at it. He had his best scoring/offensive game of his career operating as an initiator v the Suns, imo it's in him given his ability to make quick decisions.

 

[Heat Check]

The hard pill for me to swallow is the fact that he cannot guard 3-5. I actually buy into the idea that he will be our best perimeter defender against 1’s and 2’s. but this means he is a true guard by definition. Having a true guard who cannot generate their own offense, or shoot at NBA average levels, is a problem…if they’re going to be playing a ton of minutes. Imagine your 2 guard being the fifth offensive option.

this is why I have no problem moving Isaac for a good offensive SG/SF. Those players are harder to find. Isaac being so bad offensively puts a lot of pressure on every other position to be that much better on that end.

You can find adequate defenders of the 1 and 2 on the couch.

Exactly.

Lots of mental gymnastics going on, with people trying to talk themselves into liking Okoro as a starter. But the cold, hard fact is that defenses ignore him. You absolutely cannot have that from your starting SG. It's ridiculous.

Okoro is fine as an energy defender you bring in from the bench for certain assignments, but scoring is just way too valuable in this league.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I think it's more like fans are getting excited that we could actually go deep into the playoffs this year and they're looking for ways to upgrade the starting lineup.

But this doesn't make sense.

Their current starting lineup, Garland, Okoro, Markkanen, Mobley, Allen, has a net rating of +12.9 in 166 MP together.

There are only 3 5 man lineups in the entire league that have a better net rating as a group than that one that have played as many or more minutes than that 5 has.

I'd get it if the starting lineup sucked or was average, but that grouping has been elite this season.

 

[Alec]

Because people realize the regular season isn't everything. There is plenty of evidence of well-oiled machine try-hard teams getting BTFO in the post-season because superstar led teams spend a good portion of the season coasting. Especially on defense.

That lineup loses 4-0 to the Warriors. That lineup probably loses 4-1 to the Bucks if both teams are healthy. Improvement can and should be found. The question is how and when. Okoro and Lauri are the two spots for obvious upgrades.

 

[I'mWithDan]

WTF, he has been in the NBA for 1.5 years? Was in college 1 year, so are you going back to his high school days? You shouldnt even consider college stats.

He is shooting 31% from 3 with an inconsistent year and several injuries. If it was 4 years a bit more concerning, but 31% isnt ideal, but shows slight improvement, if he can get up to 36-38% that is perfect, that is in Josh Hart range with much better defense, even elite defense.

His biggest downfall is he really doesnt create his own shot much, which he will always have, but he is a decent passer for a SG if you except he is a strict wing ie sg/sf and has zero PG skills although they tried to develop his PG skills at summer league and it was awful.

His total shooting was .515 last year and is at .555 which is a bit below league average of .560....he has improved...if he gets close to .600 he will be above league average this is his 2nd year and he is only 21.

I never expect Okoro to be Dwayne Wade, I am not sure he is a future all star, but i do think he is a future all team defensive player who should be a bit above average as a SG. Honestly that is good enough to start for me. Garland will continue to be around a 20 point scorer and Mobley is only a rookie and will get a bigger role offensively. We will only have room for around 12 points a game for our starting SG, not far off of what Okoro shoots now, so as long as he improves his efficiency a bit that is just fine.

We need role players who are willing to do the dirty work and that is exactly what Okoro will be. Sure I would trade Okoro for a home run, but if we dont get that homerun and i doubt we do, then Okoro can start for my team with his defense and improved efficiency which will come. 21 year olds dont top out. (scary thought for Mobley and Garland considering they are 20 and 21 respectively and already this good)

Is this an actual take? You shouldn't consider college shooting production? I'm not sure it is worth entertaining but let me know.

Touting a small sample improvement of 29.0% to 30.6% is just laughable and my point. So he's making 1 more shot out of 100. The increase he's seen in true shooting is attributed not to his 3 point % but to the fact that he's converting at a higher percentage at the rim.

With that said, he's seen very, very marginal improvement in a small sample when his role is even easier than it was. That is my big concern here, bigger picture. He's paired with 3 players who are playing at or near All-Star levels and he's barely improving on his first year. His assists are flat, his shooting is generally flat, he isn't flashing creation skill. He'll hit stretches that are more encouraging but then get injured or post a couple thud games.

Your previous stance was he wasn't going to succeed in the NBA, so why should we think you are right this time?

Again, you personally treat this as something that only I am saying. Like it is subjective. What player lands in this quadrant that is truly valuable? Especially at the guard position?

I know you really like Isaac, which is fine. And you really want me to be wrong. .......I mean shit, I would love to be wrong. I am a Cavs fan. Being right about a player isn't the point of any of this. But aside from things like eye test anecdotes, there isn't a whole lot that he is doing that says he is a starting player at the guard position. Can he develop in to one? I mean sure......but that wasn't my argument. My argument was he is not a player who should be protected if a consequential player can be acquired for something like him + a pick. Would you disagree with that?

 

[BimboColesHair]

Because people realize the regular season isn't everything. There is plenty of evidence of well-oiled machine try-hard teams getting BTFO in the post-season because superstar led teams spend a good portion of the season coasting. Especially on defense.

That lineup loses 4-0 to the Warriors. That lineup probably loses 4-1 to the Bucks if both teams are healthy. Improvement can and should be found. The question is how and when. Okoro and Lauri are the two spots for obvious upgrades.

And that's fine to think that way, if we were in the middle of a title window.

We are not. We will not be this year either, no matter what we do or who we trade. This team is still a ways away from being able to threaten the likes of the Golden State Warriors in a 7 game series.

Just a ridiculous standard to judge a group that is the youngest starting group in the NBA as a whole.

 

[Alec]

I'd argue that not having a second unit creator is a much bigger problem then having Okoro be a creator with the first unit. We are going to get Rondo back, but I'm not sure that's going to really scratch that itch enough.

Ability to guard 1-2 shouldn't be dismissed with this group of starters, as it allows you to keep Garland hidden a bit from his least developed skill.

I think they should still let Okoro run a play or two out of the pick and roll from time to time just to have him keep working at it. He had his best scoring/offensive game of his career operating as an initiator v the Suns, imo it's in him given his ability to make quick decisions.

PG defense is the least valuable defense on the court. I'm not super concerned about hiding Garland. Though it certainly helps to have a perimeter defender who can take that assignment.

I agree they should let Okoro have a trial-by-fire and learn how to do some things in real time. The only way out is through. As this team nears the magic number for a playoff spot, he should get some chances.

 

[Lee]

Is this an actual take? You shouldn't consider college shooting production? I'm not sure it is worth entertaining but let me know.

Touting a small sample improvement of 29.0% to 30.6% is just laughable and my point. So he's making 1 more shot out of 100. The increase he's seen in true shooting is attributed not to his 3 point % but to the fact that he's converting at a higher percentage at the rim.

With that said, he's seen very, very marginal improvement in a small sample when his role is even easier than it was. That is my big concern here, bigger picture. He's paired with 3 players who are playing at or near All-Star levels and he's barely improving on his first year. His assists are flat, his shooting is generally flat, he isn't flashing creation skill. He'll hit stretches that are more encouraging but then get injured or post a couple thud games.



Again, you personally treat this as something that only I am saying. Like it is subjective. What player lands in this quadrant that is truly valuable? Especially at the guard position?

I know you really like Isaac, which is fine. And you really want me to be wrong. .......I mean shit, I would love to be wrong. I am a Cavs fan. Being right about a player isn't the point of any of this. But aside from things like eye test anecdotes, there isn't a whole lot that he is doing that says he is a starting player at the guard position. Can he develop in to one? I mean sure......but that wasn't my argument. My argument was he is not a player who should be protected if a consequential player can be acquired for something like him + a pick. Would you disagree with that?

I am not as high on him as some, but his defensive metrics are off the charts. He is playing a bit less minutes and shooting better, .515 to .555. His 2 point shooting is up 3.3, and 3 point is up 1.6 and hasnt even finished his first year playing a new position...SG instead of SF.

His per 36 rebounding is up, assists are only up slightly.

You said 4 years, then you said college should count, but didnt address including college its 2.5 years, so you must be including high school.

I am being realistic about his total shooting not being horrible. Overall shooting is 45.3 which is average for a SG while 40% of his shots come from 3, and shooting a very respectable 54% from 2.

He is never going to be a high assist guy, which is fine, we dont want the ball in his hands, and i think he can improve his shooting to maybe 35% from 3, 60% overall which with defense is fine. His is a perfect player next to our other 3 all stars, I am fine with his development so far.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

PG defense is the least valuable defense on the court. I'm not super concerned about hiding Garland. Though it certainly helps to have a perimeter defender who can take that assignment.

That all depends on who is playing the opposing PG, though. If you're playing Atlanta, or the Nets, or any team with a high-scoring PG, it can be very important. It's also worthwhile noting that we already have good frontcourt defense covered by others on the roster, which means where we really need that defense is in the backcourt.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Okoro is fine as an energy defender you bring in from the bench for certain assignments....

I don't think that works -- especially not in the playoffs. Because the truth is that the "certain assignments" you're going to need him for are going to be the best offensive backcourt players on the other playoff teams you'll be facing. And those guys are going to be starters, and playing lots and lots of minutes precisely because they are so good.

So if Okoro isn't starting and playing those same/equivalent minutes, he's going to be on the bench and not guarding those "certain assignments" for which you need his defense. Even if you say "well, you can just bring him off the bench for that assignment", then you're going to be playing him all those minutes anyway, and still suffering the same from whatever offense he doesn't provide for all the minutes he's playing.

If you have stud defenders integral to your defense, they need to be out there playing minutes guarding the opposing starters or they're not doing you any good.

This team is young, and Okoro is younger than most. Having that level of backcourt defender who can disrupt high-level offensive threats is a huge weapon, and I'd rather give him some significant time to develop his offensive game to see if he can develop into even an average offensive player. We are 5-1 in the games where Okoro has scored even a modest 15 points, and the only loss was by 5 points to Brooklyn without Mobley. Okoro developing to the point were he can give us 15ppg is hardly setting a high bar, yet it makes him enough of a threat to balance the offense while still providing that great defense.

 

[BimboColesHair]

That all depends on who is playing the opposing PG, though. If you're playing Atlanta, or the Nets, or any team with a high-scoring PG, it can be very important. It's also worthwhile nothing that we already have good frontcourt defense covered by others on the roster, which means where we really need that defense is in the backcourt.

That, and the league is starting to become a heavy PG driven league, shifting away from the SG/SF positions that dominated the last 2.5 decades.

Really, the only good teams that aren't PG driven are essentially the ones driven by once-in-a-generation players. LeBron, KD, Luka, Giannis, Jokic, and to a lesser extent than those 5 Embiid.

While teams like Utah & Miami are system driven.

PG defense is going to become more and more important in the years to come, especially as Ja, Trae, LaMelo, etc start to become the best players in the league as guys like LeBron, KD, etc start to age out.

 

[Peacedog]

Because people realize the regular season isn't everything. There is plenty of evidence of well-oiled machine try-hard teams getting BTFO in the post-season because superstar led teams spend a good portion of the season coasting. Especially on defense.

That lineup loses 4-0 to the Warriors. That lineup probably loses 4-1 to the Bucks if both teams are healthy. Improvement can and should be found. The question is how and when. Okoro and Lauri are the two spots for obvious upgrades.

And who cares if we do? We were 22-50 last year, in case you forgot. And everyone in the starting lineup is 24 or younger. So, ya know, they're all gonna get better, right?

I sure am glad Koby is our GM and not some of the guys on this board. We have a young core of 9 players all 26 and younger (I'm not including Wade or Goodwin on this list, yet) who are ALL either already good enough to be rotational pieces on a championship caliber team, or have a strong likelihood to get there in the next few years. Other than tinkering around the edges (e.g., the Rondo deal) I want the front office to make NO big moves anytime soon and just let this group grow together.