Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[CleveRocks]

friend.. think the obsession with a ball handling play making 2/3 stems from recognition that the opposing teams best hope against the cavs is to clamp irons on DG.. Warriors did it and flat killed us..

It's an admitted weakness of the team, albeit one most teams don't have the personnel to execute..

 

[I'mWithDan]

Since the start of December, Okoro is shooting 40.5% on 3s, making him a threat for opposing defenses.

Stats like this are admittedly dumb though aren't they?

It's on very, very low volume. Lower than last year on a make per game basis.

7 of the 17 makes during that stretch (40+%) came in 2 games where he shot 7/11.

In 7 of 17 games, he made 0 3PFG.
In 4 of 17 games he made 1 3PFG

2 out of 3 games during that stretch he made 1 or fewer 3's.

Only twice did he make more than 2 3's.......and they were the previously mentioned stretch where he shot 7/11 in a two game period.

He's made 0.87 3PFG a game on the season. Last year he made 0.93.

27% of his made 3's on the 2022 season came in 7% of the games he played.

Okoro's volume has to more than double, triple, quadruple while maintaining these numbers. That is more why I am just not that optimistic on his shooting, setting percentages aside.

He's 61st in the NBA among SG's in 3PA per game. That is an absolutely ridiculous number for someone who plays 30 minutes a game. The only player in the ballpark, relative to that minutes load, is Terace Mann at 2.8. If you look at the top 30 SG's in minutes played, here is the split of 3PA

9 or more per - 3 players
8-9 per game - 2 players
7-8 per game - 7 players
6-7 per game - 4 players
5-6 per game - 8 players
4-5 per game - 3 players
3-4 per game - 2 players
2-3 per game - 1 player

Contextually, it just shows how far behind he is as a shooter. So many people just throw out, "oh he'll improve as a shooter", like it is a given.......when, relative to his peers, he is MILES behind. And expecting someone to catch up, to that degree, wether it happens or not is entirely a long shot.

Then there's obviously the correlation between 3 PT volume and FT%. When you look across the landscape, the leading indicator to being an effective career shooter, over a large sample size, is FT shooting. It's incredibly rare to find a good 3 PT shooter who isn't an 80% FT shooter......and if you do, it is typically a funky volume thing like Eric Gordon or Evan Fournier this season. Who are sub 80% this year but 80% for their careers.

To believe Okoro can actually become a good shooter, he needs a large volume increase......general willingness to continue to shoot them in games and a significant improvement from the FT line.

 

[Heat Check]

In case anybody missed this from Fedor today:

Since the start of December, Okoro is shooting 40.5% on 3s, making him a threat for opposing defenses.

LOL.

If we're gonna start picking and choosing stats, it's just as much a fact that Okoro has made one 3pt shot in his last 5 games (shooting 17%).

He had a very short hot streak in mid-December before getting hurt, but that's about it.

 

[2 For The Brew]

friend.. think the obsession with a ball handling play making 2/3 stems from recognition that the opposing teams best hope against the cavs is to clamp irons on DG.. Warriors did it and flat killed us..

It's an admitted weakness of the team, albeit one most teams don't have the personnel to execute..

Most defense don’t have the defensive studs to do that. We have three very good young defenders. Defense in the playoffs is critical.

If Okoro was a hopeless case on offense then his defensive ability wouldn’t be enough but he was our second leading scorer against the Nets. He’s had games of 20 points or more. We knew he was raw offensively going in. Way too early to give up on his offense when he provides defense not many can match at any age.

 

[weepinwillow]

Okoro has become like Sexton on this board.
There has been a line drawn and you are either myopically obsessed with his lack of scoring/shooting or hyper focused on everything else. There is no convincing someone that the offense/shooting will come. Okoro just has to go do it or not at this point, much like Collin and his playmaking.
Much like Collin's thread, feels like a place where there really isn't a discussion to be had.

 

[Heat Check]

As long as you have the required athleticism, it's MUCH easier to improve as a defender than as a shooter/scorer in the NBA. Okoro has an uphill battle ahead of him.

This is why teams don't draft guys with no offense in the Top 10 if they can avoid it. Okoro would've been a nice pick in the 15-20 range, but Top 5? Madness.

 

[weepinwillow]

As long as you have the required athleticism, it's MUCH easier to improve as a defender than as a shooter/scorer in the NBA. Okoro has an uphill battle ahead of him.

This is why teams don't draft guys with no offense in the Top 10 if they can avoid it. Okoro would've been a nice pick in the 15-20 range, but Top 5? Madness.

See, I disagree. I also think you are underating what makes Okoro good, it's not his athletic ability but his feel for the game, it's his motor and it's his ability to make quick decisions. Those are all unteachable. You can teach a person to shoot, and his form isn't broken (like MKG).

Like I said I can't convince people. I know what I'm looking at. Ice is good, gonna be a ton better. I know what I'm seeing.

 

[D10S]

See, I disagree. I also think you are underating what makes Okoro good, it's not JUST his athletic ability but his feel for the game, it's his motor and it's his ability to make quick decisions. Those are all unteachable. You can teach a person to shoot, and his form isn't broken (like MKG).

Like I said I can't convince people. I know what I'm looking at. Ice is good, gonna be a ton better. I know what I'm seeing.

Right. You need all of these (athletic ability, feel, motor, quick decision making) to be elite on the defensive end.

 

[All4One1ForAll]

And that’s fine, I agree with that. Said as much for a few months now, about him becoming at least a respectable shooter from 3.

Problem is the people I’m arguing with are arguing as if he will NEVER be either of those things, which is ridiculous to me.

I mean theoretically then Pangos could become Steve Nash. It’s extremely unlikely with a borderline zero chance of happening but since we’re playing this game where we can’t discount any possibilities...

When we’re talking about Okoro, we need to talk about the likelihood of outcomes, not just some distant potential ceiling. That’s why @I’mWithDan brought up indicators for him that we can use to project what’s realistic. Okoro currently shoots less than 73% from the line. His 3P% has hovered between 28-31% from college to now his second year in the NBA. And these are wide open looks the defense is conceding. And this is despite allegedly being such a hard worker. There’s just no evidence Okoro has the shooting touch to realistically ever be classified as a “good” shooter in the NBA. Now, it’s possible he can have some years where he manages some decent 3P% seasons off a diet of almost entirely corner 3P looks. But the spacing/offensive impact from a corner specialist like that is limited even when a guy manages to knock them down at a decent rate. He’ll almost certainly never be a guy who’s shooting threes off the dribble, taking threes above the break, coming around screens and shooting them, shooting threes at an above average rate, shooting many contested looks, hitting them at a 40%+ clip, etc. And if you’re not doing any of those things, once again, you’re a very limited shooter regardless of the shooting percentage.

His really low assist rate for a guard also reflects both a lack of a functional handle and mediocre processing ability on offense. How often have we see him dribble into the paint, stop for a few seconds, and then pass it back out? Sure Okoro can make simple passes in his line of sight but he’s not creating anything and I’m pretty sure everyone here knows that he’ll never be a guy you want as the secondary or even tertiary creator in your 5-man group. I can count on one hand how many times I’ve seen an impressive playmaking moment from him and he’s never making quick decisions either. Passing vision/instincts isn’t something that just develops. You either have it or you don’t. Handles are another attribute that can definitely improve with time in some cases (see: Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown) but in the vast majority of cases don’t and even when they do, we’re not talking about someone who’s a terrible dribbler becoming a good one. I would also argue the improvement in handling ability needed for a guy with legitimate wing size is significantly less than what’s needed from a guy with guard size in terms of being able to penetrate a set defense.

Finally, let’s talk defensively. I can see a scenario where Okoro becomes one of the best individual defenders of the 1-2 in the game...but how much value does that have on the whole if you’re not switchable onto the 3-5, aren’t providing much in terms of rebounding (partially a reflection of his size), and aren’t a disruptive team defender? Okoro’s only averaging 1.0 steal per 36 minutes for his career. Guys who lack quick processing ability on offense tend to also lack it on defense. Okoro might be able to clamp guys 1-on-1 but he’s not reading the defense on the whole and being a menace in the passing lanes and making outstanding rotations/help decisions. When a guy has more size it’s easier to bet on him potentially putting the tools together. But when you’re 6’4, you need to show those top notch instincts early on.

 

[Kouki]

Maybe this is just confirmation bias but I really feel like "improving on 3pt shooting" is the new norm, and those that are perpetual terrible 3pt shooters are the exception.

 

[Heat Check]

Offense wins in the regular season, offense wins in the playoffs.

I know it's a nostalgic security blanket to think that the playoffs are about "Good Ol' NBA Basketball" where physical play rules and the value of hard-nosed, unskilled, defense-first guys goes up, but I'll have to break the bad news:

Playoff defense is more about team-wide adjustments from game to game. You can't shoot in the regular season... you're equally useless in the playoffs.

Scoring rules. Now and forever. Amen.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I mean theoretically then Pangos could become Steve Nash. It’s extremely unlikely with a borderline zero chance of happening but since we’re playing this game where we can’t discount any possibilities...

This is just ridiculous when responding back about a guy shooting better, and I think you know that.

I stopped reading your post there.

 

[Jscc]

As long as you have the required athleticism, it's MUCH easier to improve as a defender than as a shooter/scorer in the NBA. Okoro has an uphill battle ahead of him.

This is why teams don't draft guys with no offense in the Top 10 if they can avoid it. Okoro would've been a nice pick in the 15-20 range, but Top 5? Madness.

Maybe, but in retrospect, none of the prospects taken after Okoro have impressed me enough to regret it.

 

[Cavatt]

I listened to that interview with the Cavs shooting coach on the Chasedown over the summer and it gave me a lot of confidence that Okoro will figure out his shot. He said his shot is not broken, and it is confidence as much as anything. He said Okoro needs to translate what he is able to do in practice in games.

That is what Nance was saying too. Shooting in games is just different and you have to get comfortable.

It took Darius almost 2 full years to get comfortable shooting in the NBA. Surely we can give the much rawer prospect that much time.

 

[Cavatt]

I mean theoretically then Pangos could become Steve Nash. It’s extremely unlikely with a borderline zero chance of happening but since we’re playing this game where we can’t discount any possibilities...

When we’re talking about Okoro, we need to talk about the likelihood of outcomes, not just some distant potential ceiling. That’s why @I’mWithDan brought up indicators for him that we can use to project what’s realistic. Okoro currently shoots less than 73% from the line. His 3P% has hovered between 28-31% from college to now his second year in the NBA. And these are wide open looks the defense is conceding. And this is despite allegedly being such a hard worker. There’s just no evidence Okoro has the shooting touch to realistically ever be classified as a “good” shooter in the NBA. Now, it’s possible he can have some years where he manages some decent 3P% seasons off a diet of almost entirely corner 3P looks. But the spacing/offensive impact from a corner specialist like that is limited even when a guy manages to knock them down at a decent rate. He’ll almost certainly never be a guy who’s shooting threes off the dribble, taking threes above the break, coming around screens and shooting them, shooting threes at an above average rate, shooting many contested looks, hitting them at a 40%+ clip, etc. And if you’re not doing any of those things, once again, you’re a very limited shooter regardless of the shooting percentage.

His really low assist rate for a guard also reflects both a lack of a functional handle and mediocre processing ability on offense. How often have we see him dribble into the paint, stop for a few seconds, and then pass it back out? Sure Okoro can make simple passes in his line of sight but he’s not creating anything and I’m pretty sure everyone here knows that he’ll never be a guy you want as the secondary or even tertiary creator in your 5-man group. I can count on one hand how many times I’ve seen an impressive playmaking moment from him and he’s never making quick decisions either. Passing vision/instincts isn’t something that just develops. You either have it or you don’t. Handles are another attribute that can definitely improve with time in some cases (see: Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown) but in the vast majority of cases don’t and even when they do, we’re not talking about someone who’s a terrible dribbler becoming a good one. I would also argue the improvement in handling ability needed for a guy with legitimate wing size is significantly less than what’s needed from a guy with guard size in terms of being able to penetrate a set defense.

Finally, let’s talk defensively. I can see a scenario where Okoro becomes one of the best individual defenders of the 1-2 in the game...but how much value does that have on the whole if you’re not switchable onto the 3-5, aren’t providing much in terms of rebounding (partially a reflection of his size), and aren’t a disruptive team defender? Okoro’s only averaging 1.0 steal per 36 minutes for his career. Guys who lack quick processing ability on offense tend to also lack it on defense. Okoro might be able to clamp guys 1-on-1 but he’s not reading the defense on the whole and being a menace in the passing lanes and making outstanding rotations/help decisions. When a guy has more size it’s easier to bet on him potentially putting the tools together. But when you’re 6’4, you need to show those top notch instincts early on.

He's switchable onto 3's and 4's, he just tends to switch 1-2 and the bigs switch 3-5. It's the scheme. He sets screens and they are better than Mobleys. I want to see him setting more screens.