So with Sox being 74-71 and us being 77-66, what are the 2 scenarios?
Lose all 3 to Sox (who are 4GB - thus lose 3 only 1 GB but with Chic gettting tie breaker)
Cle - 77-69 w 3 losses + with 16 other games (say 8-8 split) = 85-77
Chi - 77-71 w 3 wins + say (7-7 split) = 84-78
Thus, Chi going 8-6 can tie us at 85 if we split 7-7 (Minni (4), Tex (3), Tampa (3) and KC(6)) and thus they get the division
A win against the Sox will be huge because at 86-76 going 1-2 vs Chi means they need to be 11-3 vs others to be 87-75 to beat us. (Difference in doable 8-6 for Sox and 11-3 is us having is that 3 game magic num for just 1 game).
Current Playoff Chance = 83.8% (almost back to where it was yesterday before the game) - And a win vs Chi yesterday would have all but sealed it (put us at around 93%+.
Note - Our chances of winning 1 of 3 in Chicago based on 50/50 odds are 87.5% and being on road is less. Note, how similar to 83.8% it is! Win and in. Lose and it is a slug fest between us and Chicago on who gets most wins w/ Chicago having tie-breaker advantage.
Edit -- 538 has us at 87% ... with Cease 59% over ????? being Civale, Lynn 53% over McK and Giolito 47% over Bieber -- Based on these odds, Cle winning at least one (not losing all 3) is 85%.
Now, the other question of why do we have a 85% chance of beating Chicago and wrapping up division but only 87% chance win or lose in Chicago ... do we only have a 2% chance if we lose all 3. NO. Sorry for those hung over and my using math/stats, but lets say we have really 93% chance if we beat Chicago of winning, the math is
85% (beating Chic) X 93% + 15% (being swept by Chicago) * Y (chance of winning division if swept) = 87% overall of winning division
In this made-up scenario (93% chance of winning div with 1 Chicago win), our chance of winning div with being swept is around 53% as being 1 game up (current 4 GB - 3 game sweep) means we need to equal or beat the # of overall Chicago wins in the other non-head2head games. But Chicago does have an advantage of tie breaker and Minni being a wounded tiger that may be licking its wounds/injuries with nothing to fight for.
This is why many were adamant to try to get the 1 game Vs Chicago over giving up a game or even 2 vs Minni. 1 game over Chicago puts us a near lock to win the division (93%+ less a total collapse vs KC and Texas) - a sweep in Chicago only leaves us around 53/47 odds.