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Makeup game versus White Sox | Sep. 15, 2022
- Thread starter Wham with the Right Hand
- Start date
Yep, and here's how....
Gaddis 4.2, 4H, 2R, 2BB, 4K
Hentges 1.1, 2K
Shaw 1, 1H, 1BB
Morgan, 1, 1H, 1K
Sandlin 1, 1H, 1BB, 1K
3-2 win on a Naylor walk off bomb.
Or...Shaw/Morgan crap all over the field and it's a 2-6 loss
And, right here is the reason some of us are out-of-control nervous. It's the damn years of being disappointed by Browns prevent defense that has us drinking till we become obnoxious. You just described the Guardians motto -- prevent and hope 75% chance of winning division goes to 100% on its own.
And, yes, we own the lead on tie-breaker on Minni and Chicago for now. And, I am confident we are going to get 1 win vs Minni this weekend to win that tiebreaker outright (with their injuries). I am less confident with Chicago as we are basically giving them 4 tries to win it with the ball in their hand starting today with Lynn over Gaddis and then continuing in Chicago 1) being at home, 2) able to throw Lynn and Cease and 3) us coming off a hard weekend with depleted bullpen no matter how you arrange the deck chairs. And, all us fans are thinking, is will our defense of Bieber, McK, Gaddis and Civale hold up? I guess the years of misery of Cleveland sports has made me jaded and I only moved her in the 90's.
Now that I have been caught by the guys in the white coats, I have a lot of time to think about the what iffs of the world as I bounce a ball off a padded wall. Gaddis is still most pressing issue in my day. My mind went to the dreamland where alternative thinking was encouraged. And then it hit me of the thousands of possible universes that could have happened if Tito/Chris decided an alternative path. Which would you prefer (sorry for the formatting)
First premise
Tito is probably going Gaddis today drop McC to AAA, Curry up for Gaddis tomorrow to help Sat, McCarty up as 29th man on Sat (this give pen most flexibility in this scenario)
My alternative - Gaddis 29th man on Sat, Curry comes up for McCarty after Game 1 - gives the pen the same guys just different days and much help in case of blow-out by a rookie
Note: only 3 differences is (2 of 3 are positive)
1) McK goes against Chicago vs Gaddis (Issue with Alt 1 is if Gaddis bombs your long man is only Morgan - no McCarty or Curry up today)
2) Gaddis goes Sat with McCarty (as backup) as they should get you through 5 or 6th innings like Bieber would anyways
3) You are then able to push back Civale's return to Wed (or even Thursday) to give pen an extra day's rest before another short starter outing. Gaddis going today forces Civale to Tuesday (if he is ready) and not as much down time for pen to recover from long weekend.
The additional plus in Alternative 2 is McK is still in line for a 5th start with Quantrill at the end the season if need be (to clinch).
Now, I know I am missing something like teams can't option a player down between a double header or something stupid as this seem too logical for Tito and Chris to miss (but again I worry it was done as they wanted McK to get an added day). And, there is a possibility Gaddis and McCarty can only give you 4 innings on Saturday. But if Gaddis bombs like last time, just chalk up the loss and throw him and McCarty as long as they can to save the pen for when it is needed. But if Gaddis bombs on Sat, he would have bombed today where there is no longman but Morgan and Hentges that you want to save and limit innings for vs a McCarty on Sat that can go 4 or more innings in this Alternative universe.
Oh please, RCF board, please help me (understand my flawed logic), you are my only hope.
First premise
Tito is probably going Gaddis today drop McC to AAA, Curry up for Gaddis tomorrow to help Sat, McCarty up as 29th man on Sat (this give pen most flexibility in this scenario)
My alternative - Gaddis 29th man on Sat, Curry comes up for McCarty after Game 1 - gives the pen the same guys just different days and much help in case of blow-out by a rookie
| Day | Alternative 1 | Altenative 2 |
| Today | Gaddis + Pen | McK |
| Tomorrow | McK | Bieber |
| Saturday | Bieber | Gaddis+McCarty (to give = innings as Bieb) |
| Game 2 Sat | Pilk+Curry | Pilk+Curry |
| Sunday | Morris | Morris |
| Monday | Quantrill | Quantrill |
| Tuesday | Civale + pen | McK |
| Wednesday | McK | Civale+pen |
| Thursday | Bieber | Bieber |
Note: only 3 differences is (2 of 3 are positive)
1) McK goes against Chicago vs Gaddis (Issue with Alt 1 is if Gaddis bombs your long man is only Morgan - no McCarty or Curry up today)
2) Gaddis goes Sat with McCarty (as backup) as they should get you through 5 or 6th innings like Bieber would anyways
3) You are then able to push back Civale's return to Wed (or even Thursday) to give pen an extra day's rest before another short starter outing. Gaddis going today forces Civale to Tuesday (if he is ready) and not as much down time for pen to recover from long weekend.
The additional plus in Alternative 2 is McK is still in line for a 5th start with Quantrill at the end the season if need be (to clinch).
Now, I know I am missing something like teams can't option a player down between a double header or something stupid as this seem too logical for Tito and Chris to miss (but again I worry it was done as they wanted McK to get an added day). And, there is a possibility Gaddis and McCarty can only give you 4 innings on Saturday. But if Gaddis bombs like last time, just chalk up the loss and throw him and McCarty as long as they can to save the pen for when it is needed. But if Gaddis bombs on Sat, he would have bombed today where there is no longman but Morgan and Hentges that you want to save and limit innings for vs a McCarty on Sat that can go 4 or more innings in this Alternative universe.
Oh please, RCF board, please help me (understand my flawed logic), you are my only hope.
The simple answer is they didn't want to throw two rooks in their DH, putting more pressure on today and Friday. With Bieber on Saturday, you'd have a stopper of you lose the next 2. Something like this, I guess.
Fwiw, I would have gone with McKenzie too. That said, Gaddis is coming off two good AAA starts, so maybe they like to throw the hot/unknown hand at Chicago
Fwiw, I would have gone with McKenzie too. That said, Gaddis is coming off two good AAA starts, so maybe they like to throw the hot/unknown hand at Chicago
Thanks! That makes more sense than relieve pressure on pen. And, their starter order could have been fixed with off-day before starting the Twins last weekend as they could have looked at the board of games to foresee this. But, they went with the big 3 order in Minni to sweep the Twins, pushing them out of the playoffs (almost) and are now are just rejiggling it. I still don't like Gaddis going today without a throw-away long man in the pen (if McCarty goes down as expected and Pilk and Morris are scheduled starters this weekend). That will do more harm to our pen's "overuse" than anything they were trying to fix. Hope for best, but plan for the worst.
thestatman
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-150. ERA is 3.03 vs. 4.07. Playing at home alone is -.125.
thestatman
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Absolutely.
thestatman
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No problem with starting Gaddis in that Saturday/ Sunday could lead to fuses blowing in the bullpen I do think there should be a short leash on the starter today though and would not hesitate to use the top relievers from the 4th inning on. TMac could give 7 innings or more Friday and Bieber could do the same Saturday. Hopefully Gaddis can go 4 and keep the team within striking distance.
Unless there's a blow out either way, do not want to see Shaw and his 5.69 ERA anywhere near the mound.
Unless there's a blow out either way, do not want to see Shaw and his 5.69 ERA anywhere near the mound.
This is the reason for most everyone wanting to put the dagger to Chicago's hope's today with a win (whether Gaddis or McK). And, 1 in 4 real tries (mostly on road) is a harder to get than 1 in 5 tries all at home. And with a win, it is almost impossible for them to come back. Just general odds to get 1 win in
1 - 50%
2 - 75%
3- 88% (if today is a loss)
4 - 94%
5 - 98.4%
And for the other reason for worry about a team being swept on Sat going into Sunday with Morris, a team has only swept a DH as follows
Highlight - 50% chance to win a game means, a home/visitor sweep based on odds is 25%. for each Actual home sweep is 30% chance on historical data (due to home field adv) and visitor sweep is 20%. Historically, Indians have swept 28% of teams at home and Minnesota has swept 24% on the road. Starting two rookies would have hurt the odds, but them being in same position of pitching shortage, most of weekend, it would have evened out.
But, in the end, a win today will put both Chicago and Twin < 10% maybe closer to 5% chance of coming back to win the division making the issue of Saturday momentum mute.
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Anglefan
Getting a lot of that weak stuff outta here!
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This is such a ridiculous over simplification. You’re the stat man?