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MLB 2024 Draft

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petes999

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Just as we need things to talk about next week, this last weekend becomes MLB tank-a-thon watch. For me, it is just about the odds of getting into the top 6 draft class. That would mean another $1-2 million in spending capital. Depending on who they want in 1st (usually buy low and save money for later), which can mean another top-100 type gamble in later rounds on a HS kid that falls.

My question for the group, is how does Washington not being eligible for a top-9 pick work?

A) Will Nationals be removed from the lottery all together and other teams move up 1 slot? This means a like a 7% better chance of top-6 pick from going 10th to 9th.

Or, B) will the Nationals get their lottery balls and if their numbers come up they will just re-pick for the next slot (kind of like they do now when the balls comes up for a team for a second time)? Complex math but maybe a 4% or better chance (as Washington in current position has 55-60% chance of getting picked for top-6 pick and needing a 7th team selected which would give Guardians another 7% chance of being 7th team in 10th spot for those 55-60% of times Wash is selected).

For simplicity, I think it is (b) choice -- as what do they do if they remove Nationals altogether with the last set of balls (got to ask Lee our ball expert). Right now, we are tied for 9th with Pittsburgh - so really 10th as Pittsburgh will win tie breaker due to worst record last year. MLB tank shows us 9th as they move Nationals down to 10th. We can technically fall to 13th slot (tie with SFG for 12th that we will lose).

8th (32% chance top 6)
9th (23% chance)
10th (16% chance)
11th (12.5% chance)
12th (10% chance)
13th (8% chance)
 
Per ESPN McDaniel ....
"The 2024 class has a normal top of the class, in that there are a couple prospects who are seen as consensus types to go on a minor league top 100 upon being drafted because of ability and performance but with some lack of ceiling. The rest of the class is solid, but the lack of exceptional talent at the top hurts the perception of the entire group."

So, maybe not the best class to tank for. Just some too-early articles on names



 
Per ESPN McDaniel ....
"The 2024 class has a normal top of the class, in that there are a couple prospects who are seen as consensus types to go on a minor league top 100 upon being drafted because of ability and performance but with some lack of ceiling. The rest of the class is solid, but the lack of exceptional talent at the top hurts the perception of the entire group."

So, maybe not the best class to tank for. Just some too-early articles on names




Love Kiley.

But when there is a full winter season, showcase circuit, and amateur season still to be played before the draft that is a ridiculous thing to say.

The #1 pick from this previous draft, whom 100% of baseball people would consider an "exceptional talent", wasn't in most people's 1st round this time last year.
 
Looks like it's slot 10 then
 
Love Kiley.

But when there is a full winter season, showcase circuit, and amateur season still to be played before the draft that is a ridiculous thing to say.

The #1 pick from this previous draft, whom 100% of baseball people would consider an "exceptional talent", wasn't in most people's 1st round this time last year.
I guess... I'm not a baseball person, then.. I had Skenes pegged for being way gone by the time the Guardians selected at # 23.. (this after he scrapped his approach of being a two way player and all that Ohtani jazz... That was early/mid February, 2023.. meh..
 
Looks like it's slot 10 then
I don’t particularly trust Tankathon.com when it comes to baseball related stuff but they have WAS as ineligible to pick higher than 10 and according to them we’re in the 9th slot because of that?

Can anyone confirm or refute that?
 
I don’t particularly trust Tankathon.com when it comes to baseball related stuff but they have WAS as ineligible to pick higher than 10 and according to them we’re in the 9th slot because of that?

Can anyone confirm or refute that?

The rule is Wash cannot select higher than 10. But, lottery balls need to be assigned and top 6 picks selected. Other teams not with winning balls will be placed in order of record w Wash not being placed until 10th at earliest. Ties go to team w worst record in 22.

Question is does Washington get balls of 4th seeded lottery team and if their numbers come up as top-6 it is just ignored (like they do when a team gets picked 2nd time) and next set of balls picked. Or, do we get balls of 9th lottery seed (vs 10th seed) as Washington is ignored and is ball-less. The odds are better for us if Washington gets no balls.

But note, if at least 1 11-18th seeded team win lottery, Wash will get 10th pick and we will be 11th or higher.
 
So on paper, we have to plan on having the 9/10 slot area...
 
So on paper, we have to plan on having the 9/10 slot area...
Yes, which would be our highest draft positions since 2013 (Clint Frazier at #5)

Excited about the prospect of the chance to jump up to 1-6 though. Lottery isn’t for a few months though, so best to just plan for 9-11 until then
 
So you are saying we could get OF KONNOR GRIFFIN?
While it's a possibility.. I doubt he's there at # 7 or beyond.. He's, perhaps, a top three pick with Morilando & Sterling.. Other names to consider:

Tommy White (my favorite, at present)
Cade Arrambide (perhaps the best C in this draft.. and, possibly, in the last three drafts)
Michael Mullinax (not related to the car dealership people)..

This draft is not being referred as a franchise changer.. This draft is going to be pretty solid, but, not spectacular. This is the kind of draft the CleFO usually RAKES in.. provided CleFO doesn't try to Enron the draft (i.e. show they're the smartest guys in the room)..

We'll see.. it's a long way to July & it includes an entire HS/College season, playoffs and multitude of showcase events that ALL these kids participate in...
 
Jeff MLB Draft.... way too early type.. is interesting..

https://mlbdraftnow.blogspot.com/2023/10/way-too-early-mlb-mock-draft-2024.html

The overview of the draft being a "deep" one while no clear/franchise changer at the top appears to be the message from most of the sources involved with postings like this one...

Thoughts on Mike Sirota?....

Joey Weimer with a bit less power but takes more walks.... His 23 numbers are very up Cleveland's alley, plus he can steal 30 bases in a season, so he has the speed for CF...

I think he would be a good pick... I don't think he makes it past the Dodgers in the 1st round...

Ps. I could see both the New York teams taking him as well since he is a local kid... If he has a strong season, he should be a top 10-15 talent in a sense...
 
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