Just as we need things to talk about next week, this last weekend becomes MLB tank-a-thon watch. For me, it is just about the odds of getting into the top 6 draft class. That would mean another $1-2 million in spending capital. Depending on who they want in 1st (usually buy low and save money for later), which can mean another top-100 type gamble in later rounds on a HS kid that falls.
My question for the group, is how does Washington not being eligible for a top-9 pick work?
A) Will Nationals be removed from the lottery all together and other teams move up 1 slot? This means a like a 7% better chance of top-6 pick from going 10th to 9th.
Or, B) will the Nationals get their lottery balls and if their numbers come up they will just re-pick for the next slot (kind of like they do now when the balls comes up for a team for a second time)? Complex math but maybe a 4% or better chance (as Washington in current position has 55-60% chance of getting picked for top-6 pick and needing a 7th team selected which would give Guardians another 7% chance of being 7th team in 10th spot for those 55-60% of times Wash is selected).
For simplicity, I think it is (b) choice -- as what do they do if they remove Nationals altogether with the last set of balls (got to ask Lee our ball expert). Right now, we are tied for 9th with Pittsburgh - so really 10th as Pittsburgh will win tie breaker due to worst record last year. MLB tank shows us 9th as they move Nationals down to 10th. We can technically fall to 13th slot (tie with SFG for 12th that we will lose).
8th (32% chance top 6)
9th (23% chance)
10th (16% chance)
11th (12.5% chance)
12th (10% chance)
13th (8% chance)
My question for the group, is how does Washington not being eligible for a top-9 pick work?
A) Will Nationals be removed from the lottery all together and other teams move up 1 slot? This means a like a 7% better chance of top-6 pick from going 10th to 9th.
Or, B) will the Nationals get their lottery balls and if their numbers come up they will just re-pick for the next slot (kind of like they do now when the balls comes up for a team for a second time)? Complex math but maybe a 4% or better chance (as Washington in current position has 55-60% chance of getting picked for top-6 pick and needing a 7th team selected which would give Guardians another 7% chance of being 7th team in 10th spot for those 55-60% of times Wash is selected).
For simplicity, I think it is (b) choice -- as what do they do if they remove Nationals altogether with the last set of balls (got to ask Lee our ball expert). Right now, we are tied for 9th with Pittsburgh - so really 10th as Pittsburgh will win tie breaker due to worst record last year. MLB tank shows us 9th as they move Nationals down to 10th. We can technically fall to 13th slot (tie with SFG for 12th that we will lose).
8th (32% chance top 6)
9th (23% chance)
10th (16% chance)
11th (12.5% chance)
12th (10% chance)
13th (8% chance)
