Sam Vecenie via The Athletic:
19. Ochai Agbaji
W | Kansas | DOB: April 20, 2000 (Age: 22) | 6-5 | 210 LBS | Hometown: Kansas City, Mo.
STRENGTHS
Growth trajectory has been remarkably impressive. Was not high on the recruiting radar, outside of the top-300 players
nationally. Got a Kansas offer and accepted it. Immediately clear he was a legitimate long-term prospect. Had a solid freshman
year as a rotation player and emerged as a starter and borderline All-Big 12 player as a sophomore and junior. Truly broke out,
though, as a senior due to his shooting consistency improvement. Was the Big 12 Player of the Year and a consensus first-team
All-American. He led Kansas to a national championship as its leading scorer, winning the Final Four Most Outstanding
Player award.
Good size and length for the wing position. He’s 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and nearly an 8-foot-8 standing reach.
He has terrific athleticism. Extremely explosive off two feet as a leaper. Very strong. Has a great frame that allows him to play
through contact. Great in an open court. Runs the court well. Good quickness for his size and strength.
Terrific 3-and-D prospect. Extremely reliable off the catch as a shooter. Shot prep is terrific, particularly off spot-ups. His
numbers off the catch were absurd. Per Synergy, Agbaji hit 45.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts this past season,
a number on par with some of the best you’ll find in a pre-draft prospect. Footwork and shot prep are the same every time. Great
rhythm and gets it off quick. Release point is the same.
A smart off-ball player. Moves well and relocates to find open shots. Hits them off movement with baseline and pindown screens.
Think he’s best off flare actions. Finds them in transition by going to corners. Kansas also started running dribble-handoff sets —
a la the Miami Heat — to try to get open looks for him to shoot behind off the exchange. It’s all pristine and reliable. Hit 26 of his
54 corner 3-point attempts. Will be very reliable as a spot-up player there. Also hit 40 percent of his 38 catch-and-shoot 3-point
attempts from beyond 25 feet, per Synergy, meaning he has legitimate NBA range already. This is as projectable a skill as exists
in this draft.
Kansas used that threat of Agbaji’s jumper to find open looks for him as a cutter. Monster leaper and vertical athlete. Bill Self
is one of the best out-of-bounds play coaches in the country, and Agbaji was utilized very well coming off screen actions to
create open dunks. In the half court, Self would draw up designed plays off back-cut lobs. Agbaji also is a smart, instinctive
player. If a guy is too close to him or loses track and allows Agbaji to get behind him in the corners, he immediately back cuts
and is available for an open dunk. Because so many of his attempts at the rim were assisted lobs, he shot an impressive 71.3
percent at the basket this past season. That was top 25 nationally among the nearly 400 players who took at least 100 such
shots, per Synergy.
I also like Agbaji defensively. Think he will excel in a switching scheme, which is what Kansas ran. Can be solid in a drop and
does an OK job of getting through screens. But he’s very good on the ball when he’s locked on an island with someone. Stays
in front and uses his strength through his chest to cut off angles and force guys to retreat or take a contested shot. Very good
at sliding and moving laterally. Doesn’t disrupt in terms of getting into passing lanes often but is fairly annoying with his
hand work on the ball. Uses his length and hands well to cut off passing vision in front of guys’ faces and to contest. Doesn’t
separate well.
WEAKNESSES
It’s all about Agbaji’s relative limitations with the ball. He got much better this past season being able to handle and not turn it
over. No longer a liability when he puts it on the deck unless he’s trying to do something particularly complex (something he
was tasked with at Kansas a bit more often than you’d like). Can make some things happen in transition. But he’s not particularly
threatening because he doesn’t have a ton of shake or change of pace. Seems to always be going full speed. Plays very square.
In the half court, he struggles to separate from his man. Don’t see him having a ton of on-ball value at this point. Would need to
add an awful lot to be a shot creator for himself.
Extremely poor pull-up shooter for how good he is off the catch. Because he doesn’t look wildly comfortable off the bounce, I
think that permeates his game as a pull-up shooter. Don’t think he’s nearly as balanced. His footwork and shot prep getting into
the shot can get a bit wonky. Don’t think he’s as good at generating power on his pull-up attempts, generally leaving them short.
Don’t even love him as a one-dribble relocation 3-point shooter. In total, made 26.7 percent of his pull-up jumper attempts in the
half court, per Synergy. That was one of the worst marks among high-volume pull-up guys in the country. Finished 218th out of
229 players to take at least 100 pull-up attempts this past season.
The real question: What happens once he gets inside the 3-point line? Had one of the worst floaters in the country this past year,
making 17.4 percent of his 23 attempts, per Synergy. Didn’t love his footwork into them. Made under 30 percent of his midrange
jumpers too. And despite being a phenomenal finisher and lob catcher, I don’t think he’s all that functional as a finisher when
driving. Throws up some wild ones. Tries to load up off two feet but doesn’t get the same elevation as when he jumps without the
ball on lob plays. Needs to work on his one-footed attempts and the footwork there because his load leaping two-foot attempts
are poor.
On top of that, Agbaji is very poor as a passer. He got better at seeing the available reads as a senior, but he can’t throw them
because his control over the ball doesn’t seem to be that strong. Not a live-dribble guy. Rarely seems to throw the ball into the
shooting pocket. Can get particularly wild and turn it over. The good news was he started exploring his passing reads a bit
more than we’d seen previously, which you do like to see. The bad news is that the results were poor. Maybe some room for
development if he can get some control over the ball on his handle. But there are real worries that teams will be able to close
out hard on him then scramble and recover on offense.
SUMMARY
Agbaji is a fascinating prospect, one who genuinely took a great leap this year by getting great at his best skills. He has a case
as the best shooter off the catch in this draft. His numbers are terrific out of spot-ups, he has NBA range, and all the indicators
in terms of his shooting from 3 are strong when he’s set. But how often will he get a chance to do that in the NBA? Agbaji’s
long-term ceiling all comes down to him being able to add something inside the 3-point line. He has to be able to counter heavy
closeouts with the ball; otherwise, the rest of his game falls apart a bit on offense. Whether it’s as a passer, as a finisher or as a
relocation pull-up shooter, Agbaji needs to be able to make something happen. The good news? The combination of 3-point
spacing off the catch and his quite-good on-ball defense at least gives him a reasonable floor of being a reliable rotational wing.
But he needs to grow to exceed that and be a starter.
