Odell Beckham Jr.,: Seatbelts Ruin Lives

[Expensive Jet]

 

[Los216]

This is the perfect example of a play that was schemed up to get Odell the ball so that he can make a play. If Odell gets this ball I can argue that he gets a Tuddy here. If not a Tuddy then it's at least a 40 yard gain but since he did not get the ball it does not show up on the stat sheet people will look at teh totality of the day and say that Odell is just not good here or he's not worth his contract.

This is a big play similar to the one he had in Dallas but it will simply go down as a 2 yard loss for Kareem.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Why do you think so many see it the other way around than you?

I am not Los but Baker is defined by really inconsistent play.......he is SO up and down week to week.......and he hits stretches where he is great and then others where he is downright awful. Trying to correlate bad performance, from a wildly inconsistent player and attribute it to a single complimentary player would probably be a 1 in a million thing. I think most feel something is amiss......but it is so hard to actually correlate player performance given the nature of Mayfield's play over his career.

Like for example, the Minnesota game was one of Mayfield's worst EPA performances of his career (-1.0). How bad was that? For some context.......in the NFL last season, QB's posted negative EPA's in 46 games last season. Teams were 3-43 in those games or a 6.5% win percentage. The Browns won that game somehow and Odell was generally electric from a EPA, route win %, etc.

In that game, Odell was open.....a lot......in one instance, he was running wide open down the sideline and our QB could not get him the ball. Is that a result of Odell being on the field? Or is it a result of a QB, who is inconsistent, having a bad game.......because he is inconsistent?

There's a world where Odell certainly makes things worse from time to time.......there's also a world where he happens to just be an innocent bystander in all the collateral damage.

Again, I am in the move on camp......but I think there is a lot of gray area here at this point, where I honestly don't know what the hell is the problem.......but there becomes a point in time where not knowing, relative to the ROI, is also a point in time where you just have to move on.

 

[bob2the2nd]

View attachment 6759

So this is an exact snap shot in time. I would love to see .5 seconds before and .5 seconds later. Because Im going to guess in the before frame the cards LB/CB who went out to cover (hooper?) was still very close to OBJ, and in the .5 seconds later the Cards DE is going to be right on Baker, and Baker is going to be running for his life.

I got it yes OBJ is absolutely open right now. However Im not at all convinced that this should be held against Baker, though yes technically a miss.

 

[Rich]

There's this neat take that O'Dell should in no way elevate the offense. If Baker is average, O'Dell should be average as well.

Which then is simply and admittance he isn't elite lol.

Elite WRs will still look elite with average QBs.

AJ Green was elite his whole career playing with Andy Dalton for instance.

Jarvis Landry looks borderline elite playing with Baker.

At some point some of you guys are gonna have to face the fact that O'Dell doesn't impact the game the way he's paid too.

 

[I'mWithDan]

There's this neat take that O'Dell should in no way elevate the offense. If Baker is average, O'Dell should be average as well.

Which then is simply and admittance he isn't elite lol.

Elite WRs will still look elite with average QBs.

AJ Green was elite his whole career playing with Andy Dalton for instance.

Jarvis Landry looks borderline elite playing with Baker.

At some point some of you guys are gonna have to face the fact that O'Dell doesn't impact the game the way he's paid too.

Are you using what is technically possible as your rationale? Like, it is possible for a WR to look elite with an average QB but it isn't probable.

The top 30 players in receiving yards in 2021, matched with EPA/play OA through 6 weeks. i.e. Expected Points Added Over Average.



So 87% of the top 30 WR's in receiving yards play with a QB that performs in an over average EPA/play manner. That is......a lot. I don't have time to do the correlation coefficient stuff here but it seems like there is probably a pretty strong relationship between QB play and receiver production.

 

[Los216]

There's this neat take that O'Dell should in no way elevate the offense. If Baker is average, O'Dell should be average as well.

Which then is simply and admittance he isn't elite lol.

Elite WRs will still look elite with average QBs.

AJ Green was elite his whole career playing with Andy Dalton for instance.

Jarvis Landry looks borderline elite playing with Baker.

At some point some of you guys are gonna have to face the fact that O'Dell doesn't impact the game the way he's paid too.

There's a perfect example right above that shows you exactly how Odell can impact the game but Kareem Hunt didn't pitch the ball to him. If he pitches that to Odell that's a TD. How many redzone targets does Odell have this season? How many times have we thrown a WR screen to Odell? A quick hitter? I'm just trying to figure out the different ways we can get the ball to Odell without relying on Baker to go through his progressions because other than that how else is Odell gonna get the ball?

Why hasn't Odell returned any punts? He's only run like 2 jet sweeps all season. How many quick slants has he ran? He ate those up in New York.

If the numbers are saying that Odell is getting open on his routes more than every receiver except for Devante Adams the what exactly does Odell have to do to impact the game?

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

I'm asking you why Odell doesn't have more TD's.

I know the obvious answer you're looking for, cuz its the same every week. But I'll offer this: he's only played in half the games and we lead the league in rushing TDs (at least I believe we still do without looking it up...regardless, we are one of the top teams). With that, do you expect a crazy amount of TDs from WRs?

By the way - I am indifferent on Baker. Loved him last year and all offseason, but that was with cautious optimism. He has played well below any expectation I had of him. And with that, my confidence is as low as it was when Fredster was coach.

 

[Los216]

I know the obvious answer you're looking for, cuz its the same every week. But I'll offer this: he's only played in half the games and we lead the league in rushing TDs (at least I believe we still do without looking it up...regardless, we are one of the top teams). With that, do you expect a crazy amount of TDs from WRs?

By the way - I am indifferent on Baker. Loved him last year and all offseason, but that was with cautious optimism. He has played well below any expectation I had of him. And with that, my confidence is as low as it was when Fredster was coach.

My point is this. If we watch the tape we can see countless opportunities where Odell is open. Multiple times Odell has been open for TD's. We saw how he had a play dialed up for a reverse that would've led to a TD. So to me that means that Stefanski definitely sees Odell as a playmaker. We've seen defenses respect him as a play maker with the gravity that he commands which leads to some of our other receivers being open.

So there are people arguing that Odell isn't elite or that he's not a playmaker anymore. Saying that he is a JAG. The tape doesn't show that. That tape shows that Stefanski very much believes that Odell is still a play maker but the problem is he cannot consistently get the ball in those situations to make plays.

So I do expect a crazy amount of TD's from our WR's because the opportunities have definitely been there. We just need the QB to take advantage of them.

 

[Lee]

This is the perfect example of a play that was schemed up to get Odell the ball so that he can make a play. If Odell gets this ball I can argue that he gets a Tuddy here. If not a Tuddy then it's at least a 40 yard gain but since he did not get the ball it does not show up on the stat sheet people will look at teh totality of the day and say that Odell is just not good here or he's not worth his contract.

This is a big play similar to the one he had in Dallas but it will simply go down as a 2 yard loss for Kareem.

If that is pitched, there is only 2 people able to make a play on OBJ and there is a lead blocker for 1 of the 2 remaining defenders, its Odell in open field, why didnt Hunt pitch that? You could see in Odell's body language it was supposed to be pitched.

 

[AZ_]

Finally, some folks here are seeing more prominent, seriously journalists come over to their side.

 

[WellYouNeednt]

Not a big ESPN, First “hot” Take — enter whatever host, radio/tv personality here. BUT - i do find Orlvsky insightful and usually has well crafted opinions.

Out of any personality, i would agree with this take (first 8-10 mind):

 

[Bkerr02]

Not a big ESPN, First “hot” Take — enter whatever host, radio/tv personality here. BUT - i do find Orlvsky insightful and usually has well crafted opinions.

Out of any personality, i would agree with this take (first 8-10 mind):

I think he nailed it right on the head with that one

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Finally, some folks here are seeing more prominent, seriously journalists come over to their side.

Always a great argument. Someone who goes for shock value is on your side, therefore you must be wrong

 

[2 For The Brew]

Finally, some folks here are seeing more prominent, seriously journalists come over to their side.

OBJ will catch at least two TDs Thursday night. Thanks Skip.