OT: Gambling 2019 Thread

[Triplethreat]

I use Bovada and haven’t had any issues with payouts.

I love UCLA and Wake as well.

Purdue -11 vs Nevada and BYU +6.5 @ Utah is my action thus far.

 

[AZ_]

Torn on that Purdue game.

They're going to score, Rondale Moore is going to look good.

But Nevada is rising, has a veteran OL and Purdue's defense is...ahem...very poor (to put it kindly, no offense @Lee).

 

[Lee]

Torn on that Purdue game.

They're going to score, Rondale Moore is going to look good.

But Nevada is rising, has a veteran OL and Purdue's defense is...ahem...very poor (to put it kindly, no offense @Lee).

We do have one of the best linebackers in Bailey in the Big Ten, we also got a 4/5 star recruit who happens to be a local kid at DE, but yeah we are going to have issues on that side of the ball. If you watch the game we also have two 4 star recruits at receiver to watch for.

As long as we can keep Brohm around, our defense should start coming around in a year or two. He had a top 25 recruiting class last year, and another one coming next year. We should be competing with Wisconsin soon for the Big Ten West title every year soon, but my fear is Brohm will go on to bigger and better things.

I know top 25 recruiting class is no big deal to OSU fans who are always in the top 5, but to Purdue its a big deal as we usually sit in the 50-60 range until Brohm came to town.

 

[AZ_]

We do have one of the best linebackers in Bailey in the Big Ten, we also got a 4/5 star recruit who happens to be a local kid at DE, but yeah we are going to have issues on that side of the ball. If you watch the game we also have two 4 star recruits at receiver to watch for.

As long as we can keep Brohm around, our defense should start coming around in a year or two. He had a top 25 recruiting class last year, and another one coming next year. We should be competing with Wisconsin soon for the Big Ten West title every year soon, but my fear is Brohm will go on to bigger and better things.

I know top 25 recruiting class is no big deal to OSU fans who are always in the top 5, but to Purdue its a big deal as we usually sit in the 50-60 range until Brohm came to town.

It's a huge deal, for the future.

When I see a bunch of freshman, often true freshman, in the two deep, I'm not so sure I want to lay the points against a Jay Norvell team that could gash them in their first collegiate action.

 

[Lee]

It's a huge deal, for the future.

When I see a bunch of freshman, often true freshman, in the two deep, I'm not so sure I want to lay the points against a Jay Norvell team that could gash them in their first collegiate action.

There will be a bunch of freshman in the two deep, heck there will be a decent amount in the 1 deep. But our qb is a 5th year Senior who has been awarded a 6th year by the NCAA. He has been our starter to open the season the last 2 years, but has lost the job to David Blough both years, once by injury, and once by play. He has a rifle for an arm, would be a top 5 arm strength wise in the NFL, but think of him like a Derek Anderson as the ball has a tendency to sail on him. We have the weapons for him, but our offensive line is our biggest weakness maybe on the entire team. One freshman starting, 3 freshman backups.

 

[Lee]

It's a huge deal, for the future.

When I see a bunch of freshman, often true freshman, in the two deep, I'm not so sure I want to lay the points against a Jay Norvell team that could gash them in their first collegiate action.

Also just looked at our 2 deep, 5 freshman starters, 12 freshman backups. Next years class is supposed to be just as good, Brohm is doing a fantastic job recruiting, but as for this year.....fingers crossed, lol.

 

[Triplethreat]

Just think that Purdue offense will be too much for Nevada to handle

 

[gijimbo]

No one liking Cincinnati?

I've been running a really simple algorithm to project games the last few years and I've got Cinci about eight points better than UCLA, plus they are the home team.

I'm working with Phil Steele's projections as a base.

My system also really likes Florida International +3, but I have to do a little more research before pulling the trigger.

EDIT: Super small sample size, but the system was 2-0 vs spread last weekend. Had Hawaii and Miami both covering. Actually had Hawaii winning by one and Miami by 2ish. It was two because the algo doesn't spit out a football logical score, but more of a power rating. The higher discrepancies vs the spread usually hit at a higher rate etc.

 

[AZ_]

No one liking Cincinnati?

I've been running a really simple algorithm to project games the last few years and I've got Cinci about eight points better than UCLA, plus they are the home team.

I'm working with Phil Steele's projections as a base.

My system also really likes Florida International +3, but I have to do a little more research before pulling the trigger.

EDIT: Super small sample size, but the system was 2-0 vs spread last weekend. Had Hawaii and Miami both covering. Actually had Hawaii winning by one and Miami by 2ish. It was two because the algo doesn't spit out a football logical score, but more of a power rating. The higher discrepancies vs the spread usually hit at a higher rate etc.

This can be the thread to post and find out.

 

[chrisrich91]

Anyone else having trouble depositing money to Bovada via debit/credit card lately?

Only started recently and it doesn’t even seem like the transactions are getting blocked by my bank. Seems like Bovada is pushing customers to use Bitcoin for deposits. Anyone try that yet?

 

[Triplethreat]

Anyone else having trouble depositing money to Bovada via debit/credit card lately?

Only started recently and it doesn’t even seem like the transactions are getting blocked by my bank. Seems like Bovada is pushing customers to use Bitcoin for deposits. Anyone try that yet?

I just got blocked a couple times and refreshed the page and then it worked.

Not sure what was up.

 

[SixPACK]

I use bovada.lv and it's fine with me.

So far I have Utah & Wisconsin in a parlay.

I almost put in GTech on that as well, that is a massive spread for Clemson. But, it still scares me.

 

[gijimbo]

This can be the thread to post and find out.

I like it.

Here is what I have for tonight's games. Keep in mind that it isn't going to give a logical football score, but should be able to give an idea of the strength of each team.

Cincinnati 33, UCLA 25
Florida International 31, Tulane 23
Georgia Tech 16, Clemson 53
Texas State 18, Texas A&M 36
Kent State 29, Arizona State 42
Utah 27, BYU 23

Probably just going to jump on Cincinnati and FIU. The Texas State (+33) and Kent State (+25) are showing up as typical plays, but I don't have as much faith in the early parts of the season. In years past, the system has improved as I have been able to put more data in from this season itself. This is my first year using Steele's projections as a base.

Another thing I've noticed is that the system uses a lot of averages, so it usually fails on the high-end and low-end projections. That Clemson vs GA Tech game is kind of ridiculous. Based on what I've seen in the past, Clemson should absolutely annihilate them based on the projection.

I used the system to come up with a rankings system as well, which was basically just how each team would project against the average D-1 team.

Here is the top 10 of that:

Team	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Diff	Rank
Alabama	44.2	1	14.4	1	29.8	1
Clemson	44	2	16.1	3	27.9	2
LSU	38.7	7	18.5	4	20.2	3
Georgia	39.9	5	20	6	19.9	4
Michigan	41.3	4	21.8	11	19.5	5
Ohio State	38.9	6	22.3	16	16.6	6
Oklahoma	42	3	28	57	14	7
Texas A&M	38.4	9	24.6	31	13.8	8
Notre Dame	35.4	15	21.6	10	13.7	9
Auburn	34.3	18	22.1	12	12.2	10

 

[AZ_]

Adding Clemson -36

GT is returning almost nobody, completely transforming their offense, and Clemson's offense nearly all returns. Additionally, Clemson backup QB Chase Brice is not a bad player, and has experience on the field for the anticipated second team switch in the 2H.

Big number, but there is a reason for it.

 

[gijimbo]

Adding Clemson -36

GT is returning almost nobody, completely transforming their offense, and Clemson's offense nearly all returns. Additionally, Clemson backup QB Chase Brice is not a bad player, and has experience on the field for the anticipated second team switch in the 2H.

Big number, but there is a reason for it.

Ended up taking this one also. GT has a bunch of triple option personnel, who are learning a new system. I just expect them to really struggle.