Ricky Rubio - Take the Money and Limp

[All4One1ForAll]

Blazie pretty much nailed it. It's already basically unprecedented to [insert euphemism of choice] a rapidly-improving young pro like Sexton, and the context of trying to trade him and his upcoming contract extension would make that scenario even uglier. I'd only add a couple things.

One, it's not like the Cavs drafted Jalen Green. That would've been a genuinely tough situation, if Green was on the board, they felt he was the #1 guy in the draft, and he just doesn't fit next to Sexton in the backcourt. But that's not what happened. Instead the Cavs added Rubio and Mobley, two guys who appear to fit very well next to Sexton in the starting lineup. So yeah...benching Sexton now would scream to the rest of the league that we have no clue how to build a team or how to identify and develop talent.

Two, I don't think the Cavs *had* to make Sexton a PG, necessarily...The option was always there to pair him with a bigger, defensive minded PG like Rubio. It took 3 years, but we finally got Rubio. We should simply start Sexton and Rubio! Garland can play his 30 minutes per game off the bench. Rubio has lots of experience starting next to scoring guards in recent years...Russell, Booker, Edwards, Mitchell. It's the obvious fit.

I wrote this about Sexton a couple weeks ago after delving into some numbers. I’d like to believe we can keep Sexton because I love the kid’s attitude and I love how much he’s evidently improved statistically, but I really have doubts, man.

I like Sexton's attitude and the dude is a phenomenal scorer, but I think we need to trade him before the rest of the league realizes his impact on the game really isn't as great as his box-score suggests. His size, defense, and playmaking are just huge hurdles. And so it's no surprise that even in his third year, while the raw numbers and box-score only informed "impact" stats (like BPM) have improved, the real impact metrics paint a different picture.

Sexton ranked 523/539 in RAPM the past season or 520/540 depending on the source you use.

NBA RAPM 2020-2021
NBA RAPM 2020-2021 #2

In the previous season, he ranked 505/529.

NBA RAPM 2019-2020

And had to get a different source for this one, but in his rookie year, he ranked 691/698.

NBA RAPM 2018-2019

I mean...at what point does it become clear that despite the fairly efficient volume scoring, this guy is just helping contribute to the only thing that matters - wins.

In the on/off component of RAPTOR he ranked 230/250 this past season.

538 RAPTOR 2020-2021

His On-Off of -1.9 was 18th on the roster, only ahead of Dean Wade, Yogi Ferrell, Cedi Osman, Damyean Dotson, Mfiondu Kabengele, Jeremiah Martin, and Anderson Varejao, all of whom I'm doubtful are still in the NBA on their next contracts.

There's also the fact that year after year, we've heard complaints from the locker room about Sexton's style of play, and we've always chalked it up to the other guys being losers since Sexton was scoring well and many of the rest weren't...but at what point do we say maybe where there's smoke there's fire, and that his game might actually make it more difficult for the other players to get into rhythm on the court?

Finally, we can get into the shooting percentages of teammates with Sexton on/Garland off versus Garland on/Sexton off, and it's pretty telling.

Garland w/ Sexton: 54.2% TS, 26.9% AST, 11.7% TOV
Garland w/o Sexton: 55.4% TS, 34.8% AST, 11.8% TOV

Osman w/ Sexton only: 48.7% TS, 9.5% TOV
Osman w/ Garland only: 51.6% TS, 6.6% TOV

Okoro w/ Sexton only: 54.1% TS, 9.4% TOV
Okoro w/ Garland only: 55.8% TS, 10.3% TOV

Nance w/ Sexton only: 54.4% TS, 8.7% TOV
Nance w/ Garland only: 50.7% TS, 13.5% TOV

Love w/ Sexton only: 59.0% TS, 11.1% TOV
Love w/ Garland only: 53.2% TS, 5.6% TOV

Allen w/ Sexton only: 62.7% TS, 11.5 % TOV
Allen w/ Garland only: 67.8% TS, 9.4% TOV

Wade w/ Sexton only: 56.2% TS, 10.5% TOV
Wade w/ Garland only: 60.0% TS, 4.3% TOV

Prince w/ Sexton only: 53.4% TS, 5.6% TOV
Prince w/ Garland only: 59.9% TS, 5.0% TOV

Without Sexton, Garland scores a bit more efficiently and manages to assist at a clearly greater rate while turning it over at virtually the same rate. Osman plays significantly better. Okoro shoots better and while he does turn it over slightly more, that's expected since he picks up more ballhandling responsibility. Allen plays a lot better. Wade plays a lot better. Prince plays a lot better.

The exceptions are that Love and Nance seem to play better with Sexton. However, it's worth noting that Love turned it over twice as often with Sexton, and even though he shot better with Sexton, playing just 18% of the total possible minutes this season can do some funky things primarily due to the high variance of the 3 in a limited sample size. And what do you know. Love shot 45.5% from 3 with Sexton only and just 27.3% from 3 with Garland only. Do I believe Sexton was creating more wide open looks for Love? No. I think it's just too small of a sample size and over time, it would've stabilized to the point where Love's efficiency also would've looked better aside just Garland's. It's also worth noting that Love's assist rate more than doubled with Garland and no Sexton, going from 2.7 assists per 100 possessions to 6.1 assists per 100. Yet as mentioned earlier, his turnovers also were reduced by half.

Next, you have the case of Nance, who seemed to shoot it worse AND turn it over more frequently next to Garland. Now, the shooting is easily explained by the fact that he shot 42.9% from 3 alongside Sexton and 33.3% with Garland. The increase of over 50% in turnover rate on the other hand is an issue that doesn't seem to be paired with that much of an increase in an assist rate (just a 14% increase with Garland). I think it's possible though that Nance's injury and illness this year, really caused us to see two different versions of him this season: one healthy and one who looked nothing like how he appeared at the start of the season. Considering the vast disparity in his level of performance on the court and the fact he missed over half the season, I don't think it's reasonable to conclude he actually played better with Sexton. From the eye test, it certainly didn't appear like he had an easier time on the court next to him.

Finally, I think we all know that Sexton and Garland next to each other is not an ideal path going forward due to their size, defensive deficiencies, and lack of high-level off ball ability, which all hardly require supporting with numbers. But we can just look at the team's performance with Garland/Sexton on/off combinations, and it's pretty clear it's not working well, and that Garland is the guy to move forward with.

Garland ON, Sexton OFF: 106.9 ORTG, 113.0 DRTG, -6.1 NET

Sexton ON, Garland OFF: 105.1 ORTG, 116.2 DRTG, -11.1 NET

Sexton ON, Garland ON: 107.6 ORTG, 114.5 DRTG: -6.9 NET

The On/Off component of RAPTOR also paints Garland as a positive +1.0 while he's only slightly negative in 2020-2021 RAPM at -0.26. These numbers are actually not too bad for a second-year guard in an awkward pairing and with a lack of stability in the lineups. Considering the improvement we saw from him this past season, especially in the latter half of the year, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a significant third-year leap from Garland next season, and I think that would only be magnified without Sexton on the team.

Again, you gotta love Sexton's passion, and I think in the right position he could succeed. Maybe that's a microwave scoring bench role but perhaps it's on a team like Dallas, Charlotte, or Philly next to big playmaking guards in Luka, LaMelo, or Simmons who would allow him to focus on scoring and defend the PG position. That success isn't going to come here though, and it's only going to hinder Garland's progress, the guy who's clearly the one we should be handing the keys over to.

Do you not have the same concerns?

 

[JJ_PR]

To me, the Ricky Rubio acquisiton tells me that the Cavs believe in Sexton long term. They can play together.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

To me, the Ricky Rubio acquisiton tells me that the Cavs believe in Sexton long term. They can play together.

Realistically, it's only a one year deal so it doesn't say much about long-term planning unless we actually re-sign him. Also, we needed a veteran PG no matter what. You simply can't go into a season with just a primary (Garland) and a backup (Sexton) because those guys both aren't going to play 82 games, and it's best to get a guy who complements the guys we already have.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I Also ask if you have any evidence that Sexton will pull a diva move if he is asked, for the second season on a row, to take a 6th man role?

I don't think it has anything to do with Sexton pulling a Drummond-esqu diva move. I would be shocked if he did that. That's not the problem.

The problem is that if he believes he's not going to be a starter here moving forward, and that some other team will give him a chance to be a starter, then he's going to want to leave at the end of the season. He's going to have no interest in working out a long-term deal here to play and get paid less at the age of 23. He's going to want to start, and I wouldn't give two craps for a player at his age who would prefer to come off the bench.

So the problem is going to be when the team that offers him a starting job also offers him a starters' salary. Both he and that other team are going to know that the Cavs won't match that, so they'll have no incentive to work out a trade. He'll just sign the offer sheet and dare the Cavs to match. And when they don't, he walks and the Cavs are left with nothing.

So yes, Sexton can't force the coaches to do anything. But he doesn't have to because the calendar is on his side when it comes to having options other than the Cavs.

 

[LeQuit]

Altman is famous now by making amazingly dumb trades.While other GM are dumping salaries of veterant,Altman is collecting them putting us in a deeper hole

 

[NMCav]

Altman is famous now by making amazingly dumb trades.While other GM are dumping salaries of veterant,Altman is collecting them putting us in a deeper hole

He traded an expiring for an expiring and the team wasn't going to have cap space this off-season regardless of this trade or not. I'm not sure what the issue is.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I don't think it has anything to do with Sexton pulling a Drummond-esqu diva move. I would be shocked if he did that. That's not the problem.

The problem is that if he believes he's not going to be a starter here moving forward, and that some other team will give him a chance to be a starter, then he's going to want to leave at the end of the season. He's going to have no interest in working out a long-term deal here to play and get paid less at the age of 23. He's going to want to start, and I wouldn't give two craps for a player at his age who would prefer to come off the bench.

So the problem is going to be when the team that offers him a starting job also offers him a starters' salary. Both he and that other team are going to know that the Cavs won't match that, so they'll have no incentive to work out a trade. He'll just sign the offer sheet and dare the Cavs to match. And when they don't, he walks and the Cavs are left with nothing.

So yes, Sexton can't force the coaches to do anything. But he doesn't have to because the calendar is on his side when it comes to having options other than the Cavs.

It often feels to me that Cleveland fans live in constant fear of "don't do anything to make them want to leave."

Regardless of the sport, this is always coming up. So many Tribe fans still think the franchise is about to move. People freaked out about Baker's contract extension all of July, and he's signed through 2023.

Coaches should make decisions that put their team in the best position to win. Once a team wins more games than they lose, players will want to stay in Cleveland.

Put winning first. You might just find out Sexton puts winning first too.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I don't know exactly what the roles are going to be but I know the Cavs got a hell of a lot better the last three days with the additions of Mobley and Rubio. Hope we can hang onto Hartenstein.

Somebody mentioned a report of Okoro working his butt off this summer. And Garland has been working out with the Olympic team. It's all good so far.

Fedor had this on Mobley:

The Cavs were awestruck by what they saw on film, sometimes left speechless or chuckling in amazement. They were comfortable with the information-gathering and intel. They got to know his family, old teammates and coaches, learning all about his character. Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff gave his blessing, already dreaming up the endless possibilities of lineups and usage.

I also read somewhere that the Cavs felt there was no chance Mobley would be there at #3 until shortly before the draft.

“I think his representation and the family and Evan himself felt he should be the No. 1 pick. And I don’t disagree with them on that,” Altman said.

So Altman publicly stated Mobley should have been the #1 pick. I'm thinking they would have taken him at #1 if they had the pick.

I expect the Cavs will start Garland and Sexton with Rubio coming off the bench in the role Delly was supposed to fill last year. They're not going to bench Sexton for a guy they got for Prince and a second round pick. Besides, Sexton is a 2. Garland and Ricky are 1's. They are not going to start two point guards and they won't bench Garland for Rubio, IMO.

Once the game is underway all bets are off and JBB will go with whatever combination is working against that opponent on that night. But if they want to avoid playing two small guards together then I could see a lot of Rubio/Sexton and Garland/Dotson or Garland/Okoro combinations (with Nance, Mobley, and Allen on the front line).

Maybe the Cavs see Okoro as a 2 eventually but I don't see it this year unless Windler is 100% and makes a big jump. That would give them Mobley/Love at the 4 and Nance/Windler at the 3, so Okoro could get more minutes at the 2 when Sexton is down.

But like the column said, JBB sees "endless possibilities of lineups and usage". I think we'll see a lot of different combinations. Injuries will obviously be a factor.

 

[bs80]

Altman is famous now by making amazingly dumb trades.While other GM are dumping salaries of veterant,Altman is collecting them putting us in a deeper hole

What are all these amazingly dumb trades that you're referring to? Drummond and Rubio? How deep of a hole did that put us in, and what did it really cost us?

 

[2 For The Brew]

Worst scoring team in the NBA and the solution is to reduce the minutes of the one guy on the team that is a three level scorer and creates his own shot when the shot clock runs down? A guy that has improved his game every year and is only 22?

I'll believe it when I see it.

I'm not buying for one moment the idea that his highest & best use is coming off the bench. Dude's ceiling could easily be an efficient 28 ppg. In the right team concept his defensive weaknesses could be covered enough so they aren't a bigger factor than his scoring, especially under pressure.

If the Cavaliers can't figure it out someone else will.

Let's not forget he gets to the line a lot for a 6-1 kid, and unlike Trae or Harden he draws fouls because he's fearless driving to the rim, not because of bullshit.

If we can get a good young wing for him or a high pick then fine, trade him, I get that he doesn't fit well with Garland and Okoro but let's not pretend his scoring wouldn't be sorely missed if we don't replace that or his minutes are cut.

 

[Ozone]

Good veteran pick up , but I doubt he is too happy about joining a rebuilding team. Seems like he was wanting to get to a contender last season. Hope he has a positive mind.
Whatever at least maybe some of his defensive ability will rub off on the starters.
If Sexton stays and comes off the bench it won't last if the starters produce less without him. Bickerstaff will have to be more creative because the 2nd unit will be more productive than the starters without breakout seasons from Garland or Okoro.
Rubio and Sexton with Love and Hartenstein and probably Windler or Stevens is going to destroy 2nd units.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

From The Athletic:

Bickerstaff had Mobley as his top choice throughout the draft process.

“It’s the combination of size and skill,” Bickerstaff said. “You just don’t see that regularly. When you again put a guy in a 7-foot frame — and one, I love just watching the passes that he makes. Like when he puts the ball on the floor, again, most typical 7-footers, they see the floor and they see the rim. And when I watched him play, when he put the ball on the floor, he saw where the defense was first and how that created open areas for his teammates. That’s just rare for a guy his size and his age to be able to do those things.

“And then, I’ll go back to the old school — like, he plays defense. He takes pride in defending and getting stops and shutting people down. So you mixed it all together, and that’s my kind of guy.”

So Mobley was JBB's "top choice" and Altman said Mobley should have been the top pick in the draft. The Cavs didn't have the #1 pick but it sounds like they got the guy they would have taken if they did.

Combine the draft falling out exactly how the Cavs wanted with the deal for Rubio and the Cavs' front office is probably doing backflips on the beach right now. They get their centerpiece and a quality veteran point guard and they still have the MLE.

 

[Nathan S]

I disagree with who makes the decision that Sexton will come off the bench often.

I'm not even saying he will not be starting some games. Players get hurt, especially Cavaliers players.
Multiple published journalists agree with me that the Cavaliers lose games because of the defense, and the root of that problem is the Sexland back court. JB already recognized this as well.

Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro aren't done improving. I don't see them being moved to the second unit any easier than Sexton. I'd also point out that both players were higher selections than Sexton when they were drafted, they are just two years behind Sexton in NBA development.

I'm asking how Colin is going to force coaches to keep him on the starting lineup if the coaches see that the team has a better chance to win with Sexton in a different role?

I Also ask if you have any evidence that Sexton will pull a diva move if he is asked, for the second season on a row, to take a 6th man role?

Where I disagree with this is Isaac Okoro's best position (as I believe, and Ben confirmed the organization thinks) is SG and the team was already going to move Sexton to the bench for Okoro last year. Jalen Green didn't have to be the one to make Sexton a 6th man, when the org was already going to do it with a guy on the roster before draft night. Not to mention Ben either said it outright, or inferred it, that Collin was taking it in stride.

There are several players who have had HoF careers coming off the bench (and winning 6MoY trophies). Coming off the bench is one thing, and usually viewed as an offensive weapon. Being benched is another thing, and usually viewed as a demotion or response to a failing. We all know Sexton can score. We all know Sexton can be frustrating to watch. Imagine Sexton trying to score against an opponents backups instead of their starters. Imagine the Cavaliers dictating how opponents make substitutions, instead of the other way around?

I'm a fan of moving Sexton *because* of the lineup issues he causes. I do think Rubio alleviates some of that, but if Ricky can can defend SGs for Collin, why couldn't he also do it for Garland, while also providing 2 true playmakers on the floor at once?

Okoro, as a SG, fits better with Darius, while providing versatile defense. Rubio fits better with Sexton, while providing versatile defense and also helping the other backups get in position to score.

I understand the ego of starting vs coming off the bench, and the optics of this happening during an offseason where Collin can get am extension, but it makes a load of sense to do it, and has for a couple years.

I guess we agree Rubio/Sexton makes sense and Garland/Okoro makes sense. I just think Rubio/Sexton are the starters there, and Garland/Okoro are the bench guys, if we're seriously trying to win. I don't think Garland's ready to be the do-it-all #1 option offensive player that he would need to be in a hypothetical Garland/Okoro starting backcourt, but we can agree to disagree on that.

I also don't think it'd be a "diva move" if Sexton says he wants to be a starter. That's him putting himself in position to take the next step towards stardom in this league, and given his improvement so far he has every right to back himself in this situation. Obviously he could also accept a modest team-friendly contract extension and transition to a smaller role off the bench. But I don't think it's reasonable to call him a diva if that's not what he wants to do. He's shown a whole lot more than Okoro so far, and with the Cavs bringing in Rubio and Mobley, it's pretty clear that they need Sexton's scoring more than Okoro's defense going forward.

 

["MVP"]

I know Sexton is a polarizing player around here. But barring a massive leap from Okoro or Garland, or an unprecedented rookie season from Mobley, he's our best player until further notice.

I just don't see how benching him helps us win next season, assuming that's what we're trying to do.

 

[ice cream man]

I know Sexton is a polarizing player around here. But barring a massive leap from Okoro or Garland, or an unprecedented rookie season from Mobley, he's our best player until further notice.

I just don't see how benching him helps us win next season, assuming that's what we're trying to do.

I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Garland is better. They are very different players offensively so it just depends on what you value more. I think most people value Garland more because he makes the rest of the offense better and Sexton hasn’t really been able to do that.