The 2020 Cleveland Indians

[Derek]

Derek, I would have to go into the repertoire they possess, how they use it and get way off into the weeds (tunneling, pitch sequencing, spin rates and axis) and I simply don't have the time nor energy.

Over on Baseball Insider I had a whole thread (I think it was Spin Stuff) that ran for a couple three years that I would post something up every so often. Charts, video and all. And people were welcome to throw questions at me, but you are talking hours of work per post and in the hundreds of posts I would guess.

So to make this point simple and put it to bed - I have nothing to substantiate my OPINION, so now you can just chalk it up to someone shouting off their mouth with no hard evidence to support it.

Sorry for spinning your wheels. Maybe when there is something that interests me enough during the regular season, I will take the time to throw something up.

In the mean time I will be busy "pounding salt", for whatever that is worth.

I'm not asking for a Ted Talk or anything. Just trying to have a conversation.

Personally, not saying everyone has to do this, I rarely post opinions unless I'm willing to back it up with evidence and answer a few follow up questions.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I honestly think most of the Twins players peaked last year.

I still think they’re a good team, but I don’t think they’re nearly on the level they showed last year.

It will be tough to tell for sure this year, I expect a drop off.

Hope you're right, especially about 40-year-old Nelson Cruz, who last year put up an OPS of 1.031 against a career average of .873. In fact, it was the highest OPS of his 15-year career. But Josh Donaldson is coming off a 6.1 WAR season, which was higher than any of the Twins players last year, so it's like they just added a guy who is immediately the best player on the team. That was the fifth highest WAR of his career, so it's not like that season came out of nowhere.

Byron Buxton had a 3.1 WAR in only 87 games. He had an OPS of .827 plus elite defense in center field. They were 52-26 in games where he had an at-bat, which projects to 108 wins if he played every game.

Arraez was 3-for-29 in spring training this year, if that means anything.

They were 6th in the AL in team ERA at 4.24, so that might be a bit of a vulnerability, but they were still above average.

The Tribe was 10-9 against them last year. In their 10 wins the Indians allowed only 32 runs, so the key is to stop their offense.

 

[Derek]

Hope you're right, especially about 40-year-old Nelson Cruz, who last year put up an OPS of 1.031 against a career average of .873. In fact, it was the highest OPS of his 15-year career. But Josh Donaldson is coming off a 6.1 WAR season, which was higher than any of the Twins players last year, so it's like they just added a guy who is immediately the best player on the team. That was the fifth highest WAR of his career, so it's not like that season came out of nowhere.

Byron Buxton had a 3.1 WAR in only 87 games. He had an OPS of .827 plus elite defense in center field. They were 52-26 in games where he had an at-bat, which projects to 108 wins if he played every game.

Arraez was 3-for-29 in spring training this year, if that means anything.

They were 6th in the AL in team ERA at 4.24, so that might be a bit of a vulnerability, but they were still above average.

The Tribe was 10-9 against them last year. In their 10 wins the Indians allowed only 32 runs, so the key is to stop their offense.

Yes, Donaldson's WAR last year was higher than any Twins player, but I don't see his HR/FB ratio as sustainable and that's a recurring theme with what I think of the Twins players. He's also 34 and struggled with injuries in 2017/18.

Sano, Cruz, and Garver all had HR/FB ratios of 29% or higher. Donaldson set a career-high of nearly 26%, which he had never come close to in a full season before.

To compare that to the Indians, Roberto Perez was highest on our team at 28.2% and I think we have all assumed a fairly steep fall off from last year's production for him. Franmil was at 25.6%, same as Donaldson, and he's one of the MLB leaders in exit velocity. After that, we have Luplow around 23% and no one else over 20%.

Taking a look at BABIP, Cruz was at .351 which is significantly higher than his career average. Arraez was really good during his limited time in the majors last year, but he's shown no power at any level and is highly reliant on his .355 BABIP to be a successful hitter. I just see a lot of unsustainability out of their offense. I think they were the perfect storm last year of a couple of guys peaking and the juiced balls helping with the rest.

Buxton is a great talent, but he's been maddeningly inconsistent and unavailable due to injuries for most of his career. In 2018, he only managed to play 28 games and produced -0.3 WAR and has a career wRC+ of just 84 (it was 111 in 87 games last year)

As far as their pitching, Odorizzi had by far the best season of his six-year career. It was accompanied by a decent uptick in velocity, but I'm still betting on him not matching that effectiveness. Pineda is suspended for most of this season. Rich Hill might be ready, but he's also coming off elbow surgery and has had issues staying healthy from start to start. Right now they have Homer Bailey and Jhoulys Chacin penciled into their rotation and I think they blow.

Still, even if their starters come together, I think their bullpen stinks and they don't have the type of arms to give them 7-8 innings to get them to Taylor Rogers. The Twins have a lot of 5-6 inning guys, and I don't believe their bullpen will effectively bridge that gap.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

The first of many, most likely:

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

So I went to that thread and:

A: gave it a like
B: Can’t believe I didn’t reply to it ten years ago. I’ve been here since at least 2006
C: In hindsight, the correct answers and far better choice than what we made(Jamison) would have been Iggy, Miller, or West. LeBron would have still bolted but those three could have helped more than Jamison did in those 2010 playoffs

I'm pretty impressed that, with a decade's worth of hindsight, my conclusion of Iggy being the best wing option, and David West being the best big option, were still correct. It sucks that both those guys found their way to Golden State to torment us many years later.

I also thought this quote was telling: "I thought Danny Green was NBA ready coming out of the draft, but apparently Mike Brown has different ideas. As far as this year's playoffs are concerned, Danny Green is a non-factor." Man, with his defense and 3-pt shot that he had in San Antonio, Danny Green would've been the perfect role player 2 to pair next to LeBron.

 

[sportscoach]

The first of many, most likely:

There was a few players that tested positive, so essentially we may not have him to start the spring 2.0. Luckily he isn't a main guy, so we should be fine to start the season.

 

[Derek]

I'm pretty impressed that, with a decade's worth of hindsight, my conclusion of Iggy being the best wing option, and David West being the best big option, were still correct. It sucks that both those guys found their way to Golden State to torment us many years later.

I also thought this quote was telling: "I thought Danny Green was NBA ready coming out of the draft, but apparently Mike Brown has different ideas. As far as this year's playoffs are concerned, Danny Green is a non-factor." Man, with his defense and 3-pt shot that he had in San Antonio, Danny Green would've been the perfect role player 2 to pair next to LeBron.

To be fair, Brown was probably right. Green went on to get cut twice by San Antonio as well before finally sticking.

How a Roy Williams Call to Coach Pop Saved Danny Green's Career

Danny Green was on his way out of the NBA before his former UNC head coach Roy Williams placed a call to San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. Pop gave Green one last shot.

247sports.com

Thought this was an interesting read about when Danny finally realized that he needed to "tone down his ego and start hustling" (quote from the article.

 

[DCTribefan]

There was a few players that tested positive, so essentially we may not have him to start the spring 2.0. Luckily he isn't a main guy, so we should be fine to start the season.

Kluber trade looking worse by the day.

 

[Derek]

Kluber trade looking worse by the day.

Disagree, Kluber will make a dozen starts this year at most in the final year of his contract. Clase can't even be a FA until at least 2026.

 

[MirORich]

 

[sportscoach]

Indians Sign David Hernandez, Jake Elmore, Steven Baron

The Indians signed veteran righty David Hernandez and two others Friday. Read more about the moves at MLB Trade Rumors.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

The Indians signed some depth guys today and added them to the 60 man roster.

RHP David Hernandez
Util Jake Elmore
C Steve Baron

Puts the roster up to 58. They have room to sign a couple more guys, but i think they will keep it open in case we need someone else cause of injury or virus related issues.

 

[TFIR]

1.2 % speaks for itself.

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

1.2 % speaks for itself.

Except it's still extremely early.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

"Yes, Donaldson's WAR last year was higher than any Twins player, but I don't see his HR/FB ratio as sustainable and that's a recurring theme with what I think of the Twins players."

Why wouldn't it be sustainable? Are they un-juicing the balls this year?

"Sano, Cruz, and Garver all had HR/FB ratios of 29% or higher. Donaldson set a career-high of nearly 26%, which he had never come close to in a full season before."

Have you seen Sano, Cruz, and Garver? They're huge - all between 220 and 272 pounds. Of course the ball goes a long way when they hit it in the air. The Indians are munchkins compared to the Twins with Reyes and Domingo Santana being the only exceptions. Throw in Kepler and the Twins have four every day players at 220 pounds or more. Even their shortstop weighs 200 pounds.

"Arraez was really good during his limited time in the majors last year, but he's shown no power at any level and is highly reliant on his .355 BABIP to be a successful hitter."

I'm OK with a second baseman with a .399 OBP even if he never hits a home run. The question is whether he can repeat that.

"Buxton is a great talent, but he's been maddeningly inconsistent and unavailable due to injuries for most of his career."

True, but the odds of missing games to injury in a 60-game season are much lower than in a full season.

"Still, even if their starters come together, I think their bullpen stinks and they don't have the type of arms to give them 7-8 innings to get them to Taylor Rogers. The Twins have a lot of 5-6 inning guys, and I don't believe their bullpen will effectively bridge that gap."

Agree on the pitching - I think that is their Achilles heel. In their playoff series last year the Yankees crushed the Twins three straight by a cumulative score of 23-8. No Twins starter went longer than 4 innings and their bullpen gave up 14 earned runs.

Last year the Twins feasted on the weak sisters, going 6-0 against Baltimore, 14-5 against Detroit and KC, and 13-6 against the White Sox. They had a losing record against the Indians, Yankees, A's, and the National League (8-12). You can definitely make the argument that an easy division and juiced baseball resulted in some career seasons for their hitters. But has any of that changed?

Still, the addition of Donaldson and a healthy Buxton to what they already have makes them a scary team, even if Cruz drops off a bit. I don't know if I buy the "perfect storm" theory, although they did have a number of players who had career seasons, particularly Mitch Garver, who came into the season with 7 career home runs and hit 31 with an OPS of 250 points higher than the previous year. He's got my vote for most likely to regress.

Kepler had a career season, but that's to be expected at age 26. Polanco also had a career year at age 26. Rosario is 28, Sano is 27. The Twins have a whole team in that 26-29 age range where historical data shows they are most likely to have their best seasons. That's why I'm skeptical we're going to see a signficant regression by their hitters unless MLB takes a little bit of the juice out of the baseball after the home run record was blown out of the water last year.

 

[Derek]

Yes, I believe the balls will have less juice this year.

And regardless of how big their players are, those HR/FB ratios just aren’t sustainable.

I don’t think the shortened season makes Buxton any less likely to get hurt, especially considering they’re playing a denser schedule than usual. I would expect position players to have more injury issues this year. So, I don’t know how you can say “the addition of a healthy Buxton” when he’s never stayed healthy before.

I never said we’d see a significant regression. They were very lucky to win 100 games last year. Even without regression, they were unlikely to match that pace this year.

A small regression combined with their pitching would have them looking solid but unspectacular.

@Wham with the Right Hand

PS, if you’re going to multi-quote, at least do it right