The 2020 Cleveland Indians

[CATS44]

It's a lot more difficult to handicap a 60 game sprint than a 162 game marathon. Over 162 games, the cream (meaning 40+ players) usually rises to the top. Now, everything mathematically gets multiplied by 2.7. This season, as freakish as it sounds, an eight game winning streak equates to our record setting 22 games.

Heck, a five game streak, something even bottom feeders achieve without being overly remarkable, equates to a normal season 13 game streak. We've seen what a 22 game streak can mean in terms of winning a division, but now nearly every team is capable of such an equivalent streak.

In 2018, there were 15 streaks of at least eight games, and seven more of seven games.

Conversely, injuries and the new element of illness will be a multiplied negative. Frankie lost 19 games, due to an ankle sprain, to start last season. That would be the equivalent to nearly a third of this season. A positive virus test will mean the equivalent to 25+ games in a normal season.

We can debate the various strengths and weaknesses of the AL Central, but this season those strengths and weaknesses may be of almost no impact. The season, assuming there is one, is a total crap shoot, because the deciding factors are uncontrollable...and unknown.

It's true that the Tribe and Twins have a better chance than KC, but that can change dramatically in the course of one week. Our advantage isnt that we have better front line players, as much as it is that we have more of them through the entire 40 man roster.

Because of the attrition that is likely to happen, even the lowly Royals could contend, if they beat the odds healthwise.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

No surprise on Cruz, and why you could have an enhanced pitcher in Clase.

The effect of steroids on the muscle fiber doesn't just disappear once you stop taking them. If you follow the latest research, the number that left me stunned was - a significant impact on the number of nuerons in the fiber for up to 6 years in many people. That is part of the reason why the standard ban for WADA's Olympic testing is 4 years now.

So if the effects are lasting and one doesn't mind the health risks, an 80 game suspension for possibly 6 years of enhanced performance isn't much of a disincentive.

From Science Daily published 18 months ago:

"...nuclei gained during training persist even when muscle cells shrink due to disuse or start to break down. This means we can 'bank' nuclei in our youth to prevent frailty in old age -- and makes steroid use in competitive sport a perfect but irredeemable crime. It also suggests that athletes who cheat and grow their muscles with steroids may go undetected.

The findings also support frequent drugs testing for competitive athletes, with permanent bans for proven steroid cheats since they will benefit from the steroids long after their use has ended.....

"Anabolic steroids produce a permanent increase in users' capacity for muscle development. In keeping with this, studies show that mice given testosterone acquire new myonuclei that persist long after the steroid use ends."

Muscle memory discovery ends 'use it or lose it' dogma

Exercise physiologists agree: muscle memory is real. But how are these 'memories' stored? A review has a simple answer: nuclei gained during training persist even when muscle cells shrink due to disuse or start to break down. This means we can 'bank' nuclei in our youth to prevent frailty in old...

www.sciencedaily.com

The "perfect crime"? In light of this, I wonder if pro sports will adopt a lifetime ban on steroid abusers.

OTOH, Ben Johnson set a world record in the 100 meters in the 1988 Olympics when on the juice. After serving his suspension and going off it he never came anywhere near that time again.

 

[sportscoach]

Anyone who would rank George Valera as the eleventh best prospect in the organization has absolutely no clue what they are talking about.

Whomever wrote the article used the beginning of last seasons numbers since McKenzie isn't number 2 anymore as well.

 

[DCTribefan]

Unlikely, considering we still have many more years with Clase and it’s unlikely that he needs PEDs to perform at the MLB level.

I hope you’re right but I do not share your sense of certainty.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

It's a lot more difficult to handicap a 60 game sprint than a 162 game marathon. Over 162 games, the cream (meaning 40+ players) usually rises to the top. Now, everything mathematically gets multiplied by 2.7....

Conversely, injuries and the new element of illness will be a multiplied negative. Frankie lost 19 games, due to an ankle sprain, to start last season. That would be the equivalent to nearly a third of this season. A positive virus test will mean the equivalent to 25+ games in a normal season....

Because of the attrition that is likely to happen, even the lowly Royals could contend, if they beat the odds healthwise.

Yeah, I like the Indians' chances better in a full season when their starting pitching depth is an advantage over teams with only 3-4 decent starters. Any team can play over their heads for 60 games, especially if they get lucky with injuries while better teams are unlucky.

Last year was a good example. The Indians lost Clevinger early while Kluber and Carrasco were ineffective. After 62 games they were 31-31, then went 62-38 the rest of the way. Clevinger got hurt in his second start and didn't return until game 71.

There's also the chance some teams will lose nobody to covid-19 while another team may lose half it's pitching staff or a couple of key bats. David Price already stated he will sit out the season and Adam Trout is strongly considering it.

This is kind of like having a field of 10,000 meter runners race for 5,000 meters instead. You might not get the same result.

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

I actually see this 60 game season getting shut down and never happening.

 

[Derek]

I actually see this 60 game season getting shut down and never happening.

I don't like this, but I agree with it

 

[JDailey23]

Why’s that? What’s changed??

I actually see this 60 game season getting shut down and never happening.

 

[Derek]

Why’s that? What’s changed??

I think it will be canceled at some point due to COVID-19

 

[dkbldev]

I think it will be canceled at some point due to COVID-19

I am also starting to lean that way as well. No inside info but just thinking of the number growth of the virus and the logistics of everything.

 

[JDailey23]

I think it will be canceled at some point due to COVID-19

I get that, but nothing has really changed in that regard since they have been trying to start. Obviously, more positive cases were inevitable since we are testing at higher rates.
There has always been that risk that people would test positive, especially now that it’s mandatory for these teams and organizations.
I think it’s going to be a full go until 50% of the team is positive or multiple people are truly sick, not just positive with minor symptoms.
Why else would they even bother wasting time and money on it.

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

I am also starting to lean that way as well. No inside info but just thinking of the number growth of the virus and the logistics of everything.

Logistics is the big one. Cleveland is now mandating masks in public. Ohio has restricted gatherings of more than 10 people, and recently made it indefinite. Technically, baseball can not be played in Ohio. Other states will have the same restrictions, as well as municipalities and counties.

 

[Derek]

I get that, but nothing has really changed in that regard since they have been trying to start. Obviously, more positive cases were inevitable since we are testing at higher rates.
There has always been that risk that people would test positive, especially now that it’s mandatory for these teams and organizations.
I think it’s going to be a full go until 50% of the team is positive or multiple people are truly sick, not just positive with minor symptoms.
Why else would they even bother wasting time and money on it.

I agree nothing has changed. I just believe it's already bad, and we're unlikely to complete the MLB/NFL/NCAAF seasons.

 

[jup]

From Science Daily published 18 months ago:

"...nuclei gained during training persist even when muscle cells shrink due to disuse or start to break down. This means we can 'bank' nuclei in our youth to prevent frailty in old age -- and makes steroid use in competitive sport a perfect but irredeemable crime. It also suggests that athletes who cheat and grow their muscles with steroids may go undetected.

The findings also support frequent drugs testing for competitive athletes, with permanent bans for proven steroid cheats since they will benefit from the steroids long after their use has ended.....

"Anabolic steroids produce a permanent increase in users' capacity for muscle development. In keeping with this, studies show that mice given testosterone acquire new myonuclei that persist long after the steroid use ends."

Muscle memory discovery ends 'use it or lose it' dogma

Exercise physiologists agree: muscle memory is real. But how are these 'memories' stored? A review has a simple answer: nuclei gained during training persist even when muscle cells shrink due to disuse or start to break down. This means we can 'bank' nuclei in our youth to prevent frailty in old...

www.sciencedaily.com

The "perfect crime"? In light of this, I wonder if pro sports will adopt a lifetime ban on steroid abusers.

OTOH, Ben Johnson set a world record in the 100 meters in the 1988 Olympics when on the juice. After serving his suspension and going off it he never came anywhere near that time again.

Great post !!!!!!!

But there is a difference between beating everyone in the world (Ben Johnson) and hitting a significant amount of balls over the wall. Cruz may have never challenge Bonds record, but doesn't mean he hasn't been a significant force against other teams in the league.

 

[jup]

It's a lot more difficult to handicap a 60 game sprint than a 162 game marathon. Over 162 games, the cream (meaning 40+ players) usually rises to the top. Now, everything mathematically gets multiplied by 2.7. This season, as freakish as it sounds, an eight game winning streak equates to our record setting 22 games.

Heck, a five game streak, something even bottom feeders achieve without being overly remarkable, equates to a normal season 13 game streak. We've seen what a 22 game streak can mean in terms of winning a division, but now nearly every team is capable of such an equivalent streak.

In 2018, there were 15 streaks of at least eight games, and seven more of seven games.

Conversely, injuries and the new element of illness will be a multiplied negative. Frankie lost 19 games, due to an ankle sprain, to start last season. That would be the equivalent to nearly a third of this season. A positive virus test will mean the equivalent to 25+ games in a normal season.

We can debate the various strengths and weaknesses of the AL Central, but this season those strengths and weaknesses may be of almost no impact. The season, assuming there is one, is a total crap shoot, because the deciding factors are uncontrollable...and unknown.

It's true that the Tribe and Twins have a better chance than KC, but that can change dramatically in the course of one week. Our advantage isnt that we have better front line players, as much as it is that we have more of them through the entire 40 man roster.

Because of the attrition that is likely to happen, even the lowly Royals could contend, if they beat the odds healthwise.

Where it is true that in a shortened season a single game is like 2.7 in 162, one can't ignore that you have a lot less time for the probability of that streak to happen. So the odds favor the best teams having such a streak even in a shorter season.