The 2020 Cleveland Indians

[DCTribefan]

Yeah.. I get the sympathy/empathy angle.. but....

As far as writing off.. two points.. The first, the source/people doing the "writing off" can't post two messages without them both being contextually negative.. & it doesn't make a hill of beans worth of difference if it's a player, coach, manager or front office.. This is an ego thing.. they don't want to be wrong.. and this is a way to protect their easily bruised ego.. If a player tanks, it was predicted.. if he doesn't, that's what we all (including the negative nelly) wanted to see.. Heads I win.. tails you lose..

Secondly, imagine what those same "writer offers" would be saying if it was Jim Thome with his first season with the Indians.. It was not pretty.. not close to pretty.. How about Omar?.. a strong fastball would knock the bat out of his hand.. Corey Snyder.. was going to be the next Mickey Mantle.. but.. couldn't hit a curve ball.. and swung at every one started just on the outside corner of the plate while falling into the LHH's batter's box....truly fugly.. he'd need an oar to reach many of those that he missed.. There is a laundry list of players that have come up to the Major Leagues their first, second and third times and just took a dump on Gabe Paul's, John Hart's or Mark Shapiro's office rug..

It should be noted, first impressions matter more than later draft selections.. otherwise, it's all about how a player approaches their at bats and defensive movements. It's part of the reason why you and other learned chat contributors can look at what Carlos Santana did a week ago thursday and say.. he's got it back.. no bout a doubt it..

& be right.. Thoughts?..

We’re talking about 1,000 ABs for Naquin. Shouldn’t that be enough to make an informed judgment?

 

[CDAV45]

Remember this conversation for future reference. I'm telling everyone here that Daniel Johnson is the next "star" OFer this team has. He should have already been up here for more than 12 AB's this season. I also think that Mercado will rebound, but I'm not sure of his potential ceiling due to the swing and miss tendancies. I'm a Naquin fan, but I'd be open to replacing him with a better talent. Valera is yrs away and after Johnson there isn't Jack Shit for OF prospects in this system. If they don't address it with the Lindor trade or another trade then I will be highly disappointed.

 

[xmasbuck]

Remember this conversation for future reference. I'm telling everyone here that Daniel Johnson is the next "star" OFer this team has. He should have already been up here for more than 12 AB's this season. I also think that Mercado will rebound, but I'm not sure of his potential ceiling due to the swing and miss tendancies. I'm a Naquin fan, but I'd be open to replacing him with a better talent. Valera is yrs away and after Johnson there isn't Jack Shit for OF prospects in this system. If they don't address it with the Lindor trade or another trade then I will be highly disappointed.

that's a hope - but outside of the 12 ABs (and that 1 hit and those 5 k's) i find it odd the fo would keep him in Eastlake if they thought he could perform better than the dregs we sent out to the outfield every game

 

[CATS44]

One thing that I haven't seen addressed...maybe someone else has.

Under normal circumstances, teams in the playoffs generate more revenue as they advance from series to series. Much of that came from attendance. The Indians made a lot in 2016, and were able to increase payroll significantly.

Do teams that advance this year get a bigger cut of the media revenue?

 

[CATS44]

Looking ahead to a possible Lindor trade, it seems likely that the focus will be young OFs that can hit, and perhaps a controllable MIF that is already starting.

Since nobody seems to want to trade away top pitching prospects, unless they are trading for a starting pitcher, this might make it somewhat easier to find a trade partner who fits the profile we are looking for.

In the last year we have acquired three MLB ready SPs to go with McKenzie....two that were top 100...and a MLB ready back end reliever. While it is true that you can never have too much pitching, we very well could have a MLB rotation pitching in Columbus next year, if we aren't using them in the pen.

Thats about the best problem a MLB franchise can have.

The Indians may have no money, but that doesnt mean they don't have the assets available to put a contender on the field next year, while extending the window years farther.

 

[Gson]

We’re talking about 1,000 ABs for Naquin. Shouldn’t that be enough to make an informed judgment?

Naquin doesn't even have a 1000 AB's during a five year ML career.... It's clear, one fourth of those not quite 1000 AB's were over three seasons when he wasn't healthy while the other three fourths when he was coming off of injury and was just regaining health...

Legitimate injuries play a role.. not just a total number.. when healthy, Naquin is a 270-290 hitter, .790 OPS, average (no higher) defensive OF'er.. with a solid/good arm..

Note: Being/Staying healthy is a skill that Naquin hasn't mastered.. Writing off a player of his skill is just another poor assessment of the talent this man possesses..

 

[DCTribefan]

Naquin doesn't even have a 1000 AB's during a five year ML career.... It's clear, one fourth of those not quite 1000 AB's were over three seasons when he wasn't healthy while the other three fourths when he was coming off of injury and was just regaining health...

Legitimate injuries play a role.. not just a total number.. when healthy, Naquin is a 270-290 hitter, .790 OPS, average (no higher) defensive OF'er.. with a solid/good arm..

Note: Being/Staying healthy is a skill that Naquin hasn't mastered.. Writing off a player of his skill is just another poor assessment of the talent this man possesses..

With all due respect Gson, I don’t see how you can insist Naquin has such great talent when he hasn’t consistently shown this talent on the field. And if he cannot stay healthy, what’s the point of keeping him? At best, he is a poor man’s Chisenhall. We’ll just agree to disagree, I guess.

 

[sportscoach]

Remember this conversation for future reference. I'm telling everyone here that Daniel Johnson is the next "star" OFer this team has. He should have already been up here for more than 12 AB's this season. I also think that Mercado will rebound, but I'm not sure of his potential ceiling due to the swing and miss tendancies. I'm a Naquin fan, but I'd be open to replacing him with a better talent. Valera is yrs away and after Johnson there isn't Jack Shit for OF prospects in this system. If they don't address it with the Lindor trade or another trade then I will be highly disappointed.

Don't forget the million middle INF prospects we have in the system. If a guy can hit, they will find a spot for him if he is blocked.

Luplow was a 3B, Mercado a SS, JRam played in the OF to get ABs, Chisenhall was switched to the OF from 3B. Yan Gomes played C, 1B, 3B, LF and RF with the Blue Jays. Kipnis was an OF that got moved to 2B. Positions aren't set in stone when the players are young. Also Owen Miller, is projected to be able to play a lot of positions. They said he should translate well into the OF as well as the INF.

In high school a lot of the times your best players will end up, up the middle at SS, CF etc. As players get to higher levels and stiffer competition, guys will move to other postions based off of how they develop and natural abilities. We have a ton of 20 or younger middle INF prospects and lack OF prospects. Some of them eventually will get moved to the OF/positions that arent blocked as much.

Indians farm system has been trying to draft the best athletes possible with high upside. Doesnt mean it always works out, but thats who they have been targeting. Hence why i wanted them to draft a colege guy who is a high bat rating (aka we got the guy I have been wanting in Miller).

Also the Indians havent been afraid to swap prospects for prospects in a sense, especially when we have years of control over them. With the million SPs and SS, we could make a swap for an OF prospect as well. I am not worried, since if the person can hit, they will find him a position

 

[CATS44]

Making a judgement on talent is quite different than making one on value.

In addition, certainty has value. Just as ownership strives for some measure of future financial certainty, the FO strives for future roster certainty. They want to pencil in some names. Both reasons point to why the Tribe likes to sign some of its better players long term. The want a roster spot filled long term and they want the cost for that roster spot known.

Which brings us to Naquin. No matter how talented...and there are certainly reasons for debate...he is the epitome of uncertainty, not only in the long run, but also day to day.

Is there anybody that wants to go into next year counting on Naquin being the full time right fielder?...,or even the left side of a platoon?

The argument that he is a productive player when he is healthy is a strawman, because he is seldom, if ever, healthy. It also downplays the fact that he is a pure streak hitter, with a lot more lows than highs.

Since his debut in 2016 the Indians have played 26 months of baseball. Naquin has played full time in only eleven of those months. Of those eleven months in which he had at least 60 PAs, he was a productive hitter in only four.

He is going to turn 30 next April and still flails at anything above his hips, and doesn't hit lefties well.

Other than that, he's a talented player.

 

[CATS44]

A youngster I'm impressed with is Quantrill.

He wants tobe a starter and I hope they give him a real chance next year, even though there doesn't appear to be an opening.

He is the hardest thrower in the group...and so far seems to be poised on the mound. I'm not saying I like him better than any of the others, just that he looks pretty darn good.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Making a judgement on talent is quite different than making one on value.

In addition, certainty has value. Just as ownership strives for some measure of future financial certainty, the FO strives for future roster certainty. They want to pencil in some names. Both reasons point to why the Tribe likes to sign some of its better players long term. The want a roster spot filled long term and they want the cost for that roster spot known.

Which brings us to Naquin. No matter how talented...and there are certainly reasons for debate...he is the epitome of uncertainty, not only in the long run, but also day to day.

Is there anybody that wants to go into next year counting on Naquin being the full time right fielder?...,or even the left side of a platoon?

The argument that he is a productive player when he is healthy is a strawman, because he is seldom, if ever, healthy. It also downplays the fact that he is a pure streak hitter, with a lot more lows than highs.

Since his debut in 2016 the Indians have played 26 months of baseball. Naquin has played full time in only eleven of those months. Of those eleven months in which he had at least 60 PAs, he was a productive hitter in only four.

He is going to turn 30 next April and still flails at anything above his hips, and doesn't hit lefties well.

Other than that, he's a talented player.

Naquin can't hit the high fastball in the strike zone. He know it so he hunts low breaking balls but ends up chasing every one he sees. I just looked up his O-Zone% and it's 40.3%. He doesn't quite have enough at-bats to qualify in the Fangraphs rankings but only 10 every day players chase more bad pitches. One is Eddie Rosario, so it shows that hacking at bad pitches doesn't automatically disqualify you from being a productive hitter, but I'm positive Naquin would be a lot better if he got his chase rate down, especially on those curves and sliders in the dirt.

That being said, he's 30 years old so that probably won't happen unless somebody tells him he needs to stop chasing or he'll be traded or released.

 

[Gson]

A youngster I'm impressed with is Quantrill.

He wants tobe a starter and I hope they give him a real chance next year, even though there doesn't appear to be an opening.

He is the hardest thrower in the group...and so far seems to be poised on the mound. I'm not saying I like him better than any of the others, just that he looks pretty darn good.

Easy to be impressed.. he appears to have the mentality and physical tools to succeed.. Being around the Cleveland starters and staff can do nothing but improve his ability to compete.. Adding Josh Naylor as a 1B/OF ( a former top 100 MLB prospect) and Austin Hedges (defense first/only) catcher..the Indians add to the depth of the highest levels of the team.

Without consideration to the "lesser knowns" in this trade (Gabriel Arias SS, Joey Cantillo LHSP and Owen Miller 2B/3B/SS...these three may be less ready, but, still significant to the creation of depth and skill level for the Indians MiLB teams) Cal Quantrill is going to be the clear star of current talent in this trade. The loss of Clevinger is going to be felt.. but, this kid can fill an immediate need (impact pen arm with length) while being groomed to take over a starting role in the coming 2021 season. Quantrill is a legacy guy.. his dad, Paul Quantrill, pitched in the major leagues for more than a decade. Like his dad, Cal is stingy when it comes to free passes. Throwing strikes, having stuff and being at the early or start of his career makes him an ideal fit for the Indians in 2020 and beyond.. He is a TJ survivor, having had the surgery back in 2015.. He was considered a top 20 overall prospect in the 2016 draft.. He was selected in the top 10 by the Padres.. He bounced up and down from the minors after a two year rise through the Padres minor league system during the 2016 - 2019 seasons, respectively. He arrived for good in SD in the mid 2019 season, but, not as an SP. The Padres were building an impressive core of yound SP's: Quantrill, Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino... but, current needs out weighed future needs and the Padres made the deal for Clevinger with the Tribe..

With a mid 90's FB (94-96) coupled with a deceptive & fading change up, Quantrill's two pitch mix is more than adequate as an RP.. Adding in a curve ball from the same tunnel, and he's showing a three pitch arsenal that can be devastating as a ML SP. The depth on his curve ball is the biggest question. When he tries to throw it harder.. it flattens.. when he tries to take some velocity off, it is telegraphed. This is an area of pitching development that the Tribe staff will work with him during the coming off season. If he masters the seamless delivery sameness, he's going to be as good as any SP prospect the Indians have in their minor league system..

Time will tell..

 

[LL3]

As long as Naquin is a low cost player his ability merits keeping him around...reasonable use of resources.

 

[Criznit]

Just read the experts picks on the playoffs over at MLB.COM. Unsurprisingly, not much Tribe love , most have us getting bounced by the Yanks.. Shocker I know... But then there is this guy. I don't know who he is, but he was the only one who picked the Indians to win it all.. I like him...

WILL LEITCH

ALWC winners: TB, CLE, CWS, MIN
NLWC winners: LAD, STL, CHC, ATL
ALDS: TB-CLE -- Indians in 4
ALDS: CWS-MIN -- Twins in 5
NLDS: LAD-STL -- Dodgers in 3
NLDS: CHC-ATL -- Braves in 4
ALCS: CLE-MIN -- Indians in 6
NLCS: LAD-ATL -- Dodgers in 5
WS: LAD-CLE -- Indians in 7

My general rule in NCAA Tournament brackets -- which, amazingly, is what this all looks like -- is to pick upsets early but go chalk late. Which is why I surprised myself by essentially doing the opposite here: I have two Wild Card Series upsets (the White Sox, who don’t really feel like an upset over the A’s, and the Cardinals, who get to face a team whose top two starters are either out or questionable because of injury), but otherwise I went with the higher seed. But when we went late, particularly in the World Series, I couldn’t do it. I want Clayton Kershaw to have his breakthrough, and the Dodgers to finally win that World Series they’ve been looking for since the year Kershaw was born, but there’s something about Cleveland, in this odd dog’s breakfast of a season, being the one that comes out on top. That rotation can throw with anyone, and it feels like a Francisco Lindor World Series: He’ll do something amazing to remind us why we thought we’d be talking about him all season … and surely won’t stop this offseason. The Indians are the sort of team that will finally win when no one expects them to. This is that “when.”

 

[CATS44]

There's three other things about Quantrill that I like.

1] He is very athletic. He was a three sport star in HS...baseball, hockey, and volleyball, of all things.

2] He is from Canada, and because of weather conditions, Canadian kids tend to take longer to develop.

3] If you check his stacast numbers, he doesn't give up many hard hit balls.

He comes very close to Kluber in statcast.

Ave EV...87.1 to 87.3
Barrel %...5.8 to 5.7
Hard hit %...32.2 to 31.7

Not wanting to oversell the kid, caveats are numerous. Mostly, a small sample size, abetted by already pitching in two different leagues...so nobody has seen much of him.