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It depends on whether you want to look at career numbers or more recent numbers. Is Santana the same hitter now that he was 10 years ago? Five years ago? If he is, then use career numbers. If you believe he changed his hitting approach, as the Fangraphs numbers clearly show and as he said he did, then the more recent numbers have more validity.Why is this so complicated?
Cesar Hernandez has a .352 career OBP which is excellent. I, and others, expect him to improve his plate discipline in 2020 vs. 2019
Carlos Santana has a .367 career OBP, also excellent. I, and others, don't expect him to replicate his 2019 career best season.
Like I said yesterday, ad nauseam
Hernandez has a two-year downward trend. Is that an anomaly? We don't know, but I suspect it might be. I hope he improves his plate discipline because it sure went all to hell last year. Maybe if they hit him leadoff he'll go back to his 2017 approach with similar results. It's very possible. I just prefer recent numbers, thinking they're a better reflecrtion of where a player is right now in his career. Others want to average 10 years of performance and say this is what we'll get.