The End of an Era: Case Keenum Traded to Buffalo

[Vee-Rex]

Who is Fedor even talking to? Are there legitimately people who think Keenum should be our full time QB going forward even with a healthy Baker?

Yes sir. Twitter is a filthy cesspool.

I think we have a guy or two on here who would always flirt with idea of playing Keenum over Baker.

 

[AZ_]

Those people don’t matter.

 

[Douglar]

This is sort of like "if you give a mouse a cookie", but ...

If you give Keenum a healthy offensive line, he can be enough of a threat to let the run game work.
If you give Keenum a running attack, he can find a way to create 15 play drives.
If you give Keenum 15 play drives, he can turn a 60 minute game into a 6 possesion game.
If you give Keenum 6 possession game, the defense can expose the flaws in the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots and Lions offenses.
If you expose the flaws in those offenses, the Browns efficiency is enough to win any or all of the next 4 games.

Belicheck and Burrows might cause problems, but even those teams have notable weaknesses that can be exploited.

I think Keenum is capable enough enough to drive Stephanski's meat grinding machine to 4 more victories.

I don't think Keenum becomes a liability until you face the Ravens, because Lamar Jackson is talented enough to force a shootout. Browns chances look much better with a healthy "jitter free" Mayfield against the Ravens.

 

[2 For The Brew]

Yes sir. Twitter is a filthy cesspool.

I think we have a guy or two on here who would always flirt with idea of playing Keenum over Baker.

I suspect there are some media people who would fan the QB controversy story, especially if Case were to beat the Steelers.

 

[bob2the2nd]

This is sort of like "if you give a mouse a cookie", but ...

If you give Keenum a healthy offensive line, he can be enough of a threat to let the run game work.
If you give Keenum a running attack, he can find a way to create 15 play drives.
If you give Keenum 15 play drives, he can turn a 60 minute game into a 6 possesion game.
If you give Keenum 6 possession game, the defense can expose the flaws in the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots and Lions offenses.
If you expose the flaws in those offenses, the Browns efficiency is enough to win any or all of the next 4 games.

Belicheck and Burrows might cause problems, but even those teams have notable weaknesses that can be exploited.

I think Keenum is capable enough enough to drive Stephanski's meat grinding machine to 4 more victories.

I don't think Keenum becomes a liability until you face the Ravens, because Lamar Jackson is talented enough to force a shootout. Browns chances look much better with a healthy "jitter free" Mayfield against the Ravens.

Keenum is a liability. full stop.

He absolutely cannot run the offense or open up the playbook as much as a healthy Baker can. In fact he cant even run the offense as much as a slightly injured Baker.

Now the question is when does his liability start costing the team games, and the answer is when the defense cant hold another team to 17 points. The browns with healthy Baker last night instead of Keenum score an easy 24+ points.

Ultimately i think you are right, from now through the end of the season there are probably 3-5 games Keenum could manufacter a victory if he has a healthy offensive line and Nick Chubb behind him. But not sure thats something the browns can count on

 

[CBBI]

This is sort of like "if you give a mouse a cookie", but ...

If you give Keenum a healthy offensive line, he can be enough of a threat to let the run game work.
If you give Keenum a running attack, he can find a way to create 15 play drives.
If you give Keenum 15 play drives, he can turn a 60 minute game into a 6 possesion game.
If you give Keenum 6 possession game, the defense can expose the flaws in the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots and Lions offenses.
If you expose the flaws in those offenses, the Browns efficiency is enough to win any or all of the next 4 games.

Belicheck and Burrows might cause problems, but even those teams have notable weaknesses that can be exploited.

I think Keenum is capable enough enough to drive Stephanski's meat grinding machine to 4 more victories.

I don't think Keenum becomes a liability until you face the Ravens, because Lamar Jackson is talented enough to force a shootout. Browns chances look much better with a healthy "jitter free" Mayfield against the Ravens.

Without significant turnover luck, I do not think the Browns can beat any quality teams with Keenum at the helm. The offense is just way too limited from a passing perspective. It's really hard to beat good defenses when all you can run is screens and flats.

If he started the rest of the season, I think the Browns would go 3-7 at best over the final 10 games.

 

[Kbiz]

Yes sir. Twitter is a filthy cesspool.

I think we have a guy or two on here who would always flirt with idea of playing Keenum over Baker.

Only a guy or two? There's a collective bunch of simpletons that will be carrying Keenum's jock on this forum if he looks serviceable against the Stoolers.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Without significant turnover luck, I do not think the Browns can beat any quality teams with Keenum at the helm. The offense is just way too limited from a passing perspective. It's really hard to beat good defenses when all you can run is screens and flats.

If he started the rest of the season, I think the Browns would go 3-7 at best over the final 10 games.

That is where I would land too, just eye balling DVOA metrics

Steelers - #9
@Bengals - #5
@Patriots - #11
Lions - #27
@Ravens - #10
Ravens - #10
Raiders - #15
@Packers - #23
@Steelers - #9
Bengals - #5

So that is 7 games against top 11 defenses in DVOA. Yikes.

I think the second Ravens game, at home with 2 weeks of prep is one you could steal and then you kind of have to beat Detroit and Vegas, just relative to them not being as dynamic on offense. All home wins. Green Bay's defense isn't very good but their offense is probably going to eat our lunch.

 

[I'mWithDan]

And to frame Case's play here.........that seemed like as well as he can possibly play. Realistically, I don't think you are getting something better than 0.100 in EPA/play from him. And you can certainly get a lot, a lot worse.

Relative to league average, he's on par with 2020 QB's like Trubisky, Tua (who was a rookie), Minshew, Lock and Cam. 4 of those 5 aren't even playing anymore and 1 is trying to be given away for a potential perv.

You can eek out wins against teams like Denver......if the scheme continues to remain great and we don't turn it over (or we force a few) but against teams with a pulse on defense, even 0.100 is going to get you nowhere over a large sample.......and unfortunately the number of good defenses we play over the next 10 is a large sample.

The only avenue to squeaking in to the playoffs is getting Baker back. Not because he has consistently performed better than that 0.100 EPA/play mark in 2021......but because he is actually capable of doing so.

 

[Douglar]

The only avenue to squeaking in to the playoffs is getting Baker back. Not because he has consistently performed better than that 0.100 EPA/play mark in 2021......but because he is actually capable of doing so.

I agree that it is unlikely that the Browns do well this year without getting Mayfield back. We are not likely to see a Nick Foles situation. I don't think the Browns will do well against the Ravens or Packers or in Pittsburgh with Keenum in charge.

But......

I do think Keenum is competent enough that the Browns can go 3-1 in the next 4 games with him behind center if Conklin & Landry play and we avoid any new major injuries.

Anyone disagree with that?

 

[bob2the2nd]

I agree that it is unlikely that the Browns do well this year without getting Mayfield back. We are not likely to see a Nick Foles situation. I don't think the Browns will do well against the Ravens or Packers or in Pittsburgh with Keenum in charge.

But......

I do think Keenum is competent enough that the Browns can go 3-1 in the next 4 games with him behind center if Conklin & Landry play and we avoid any new major injuries.

Anyone disagree with that?

2-2 IF and big if Conklin, Landry, Willis are healthy.

If Chubb is also healthy if everything goes right 3-1. But I wouldn't put money on it

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Keenum isn't good. But that was also his first extended play time in quite awhile, so it's not unrealistic to think that he might be better with more playing time.

I do think the health of the OT's will be critical to his performance. Wills played...but he was pretty bad.

By the way, I take back everything I said about Callahan's bonus being that he's a good judge of college OL talent. I'm just not seeing it.

 

[Douglar]

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Keenum wasn't spectacular, but he didn't have to be. He kept the offense on schedule, limited mistakes and hit multiple throws past the sticks on key third downs. He completed 21-of-33 passes for 199 yards, 12 first downs, one touchdown and took a sack. On PFF's first review of the game, he had zero big-time throws and one turnover-worthy play. He should finish PFF's reviews with a 65.0-plus PFF passing grade.​

 

[CBBI]

I do think Keenum is competent enough that the Browns can go 3-1 in the next 4 games with him behind center if Conklin & Landry play and we avoid any new major injuries.

Anyone disagree with that?

I disagree to an extreme degree, yes. I think this offense with Keenum at the helm is going to get absolutely eaten up by better defenses. Teams are going to stack the box and dare Keenum to press the ball down the field (like Arizona did with Baker) and I just don't think Case has enough juice in his arm to consistently make a defense pay.

If the Browns get good turnover fortune? If they have a couple of +2 or +3 turnover games, then sure. They can still beat some of these teams. But without that, I don't see how they're going to win much more this season without Baker back.

 

[Douglar]

I disagree to an extreme degree, yes. I think this offense with Keenum at the helm is going to get absolutely eaten up by better defenses. Teams are going to stack the box and dare Keenum to press the ball down the field (like Arizona did with Baker) and I just don't think Case has enough juice in his arm to consistently make a defense pay.

Which team in the next 4 weeks has a better defense than Denver? Is Pittsburgh really better?

When the Browns have a healthy Oline, they can still run when opponents load up the box.

D’Ernest Johnson, making first NFL start, gouges Broncos for 146 yards and 6.6 yards per carry in Browns’ 17-14 win

Was that Jim Brown out there Thursday, gouging the Broncos for 146 yards with a healthy 6.6 yards per carry?

www.denverpost.com

“We were loaded up for the run, and they blocked us and ran it — we couldn’t stop them,” Fangio said of the final drive