The Kevin Stefanski: Two-Time Coach of the Year Thread

[Randolphkeys]

Pish, Dear Keys.

Why Kellen Winslow II proved a man could fly.

Is that what they call rape these days? Well, I guess I'm taking Amtrak for my next vacation.

 

[MGMT]

Kellen Winslow was upset about Tom Petty’s death so to pay tribute he played “Learning to Fly” in his big white van while hanging out of his window saying “hi there, I’ve got bingo cards in the back.”

 

[Sebastian]

Is that what they call rape these days? Well, I guess I'm taking Amtrak for my next vacation.

No, I was referring to his motorcycle accident.

Joke ruined.

 

[MoFlo]

 

[Hurl Bruce]

Since the OBJ thread is locked, I thought this relates to playcalling as well.

 

[Jordan]

FYI - I got access to Sports Info Solutions through my university. I did some digging into stats on outside zone runs.

The 2018 Rams averaged .23 expected points added per outside zone run. For those of you unfamiliar with EPA, it is a regression model based on success rate (how many yards do you need based on down-and-distance to see a positive impact on your ability to score on the drive), and generally pass plays are worth much more than run plays.

For context, the average team throwing an average pass generates .04 EPA per play and -0.04 per run play. Last year's Ravens averaged .35 points EPA per pass play and .1 per run play. Last year's Chiefs averaged .23 expect points added per pass play and .06 per run.

What that means is the Rams' outside zone running in 2018 was arguably as impactful - at least by this metric - as last season's Chiefs' passing game.

For those less inclined to believe this stat - something that I think is very fair - the 2018 Rams averaged 5.9 yards per attempt on outside zone runs. Also a crazy-high stat.

Has any team ever been this productive running the football on outside zone? No, McVay is an absolute genius and prime Gurley was impossible to stop.

Want to know something interesting, though? The only three teams that ever came anywhere close this past season (i.e., averaging over 5 yards per attempt and a positive EPA/play) are the 2019 Titans, 2019 Saints, and 2019 Browns. The problem is the 2019 Browns ran outside zone less than all three teams - including 44 less times than Tennessee and 97 less times than the 2018 Rams. The 2019 Vikings ran outside zone 74 more times than the Browns.

More importantly, the five teams that ran outside zone the most in the 2019 season (Vikings, Titans, Raiders, Rams, and 49ers) were deadly in play action.

Vikings: most outside zone runs in the NFL, 9th best play-action team per EPA.
Raiders: second most outside zone runs in the NFL, 6th best play-action team per EPA.
Titans: third most outside zone runs in the NFL, best play-action team per EPA.
49ers: fourth most outside zone runs in the NFL, 3rd best play-action team per EPA.
Rams: fifth most outside zone runs in the NFL, 10th best play-action team per EPA.

In sum, outside zone runs are incredibly productive in both the ground game and the play-action game. Nick Chubb is probably the best outside zone runner in the NFL. Yet the Browns barely ran outside zone last year, at least compared to the production they got off of it. Stefanski, by comparison, loves the outside zone and uses it to make his players better and more productive.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

FYI - I got access to Sports Info Solutions through my university. I did some digging into stats on outside zone runs.

The 2018 Rams averaged .23 expected points added per outside zone run. For those of you unfamiliar with EPA, it is a regression model based on success rate (how many yards do you need based on down-and-distance to see a positive impact on your ability to score on the drive), and generally pass plays are worth much more than run plays.

For context, the average team throwing an average pass generates .04 EPA per play and -0.04 per run play. Last year's Ravens averaged .35 points EPA per pass play and .1 per run play. Last year's Chiefs averaged .23 expect points added per pass play and .06 per run.

What that means is the Rams' outside zone running in 2018 was arguably as impactful - at least by this metric - as last season's Chiefs' passing game.

For those less inclined to believe this stat - something that I think is very fair - the 2018 Rams averaged 5.9 yards per attempt on outside zone runs. Also a crazy-high stat.

Has any team ever been this productive running the football on outside zone? No, McVay is an absolute genius and prime Gurley was impossible to stop.

Want to know something interesting, though? The only three teams that ever came anywhere close this past season (i.e., averaging over 5 yards per attempt and a positive EPA/play) are the 2019 Titans, 2019 Saints, and 2019 Browns. The problem is the 2019 Browns ran outside zone less than all three teams - including 44 less times than Tennessee and 97 less times than the 2018 Rams. The 2019 Vikings ran outside zone 74 more times than the Browns.

More importantly, the five teams that ran outside zone the most in the 2019 season (Vikings, Titans, Raiders, Rams, and 49ers) were deadly in play action.

Vikings: most outside zone runs in the NFL, 9th best play-action team per EPA.
Raiders: second most outside zone runs in the NFL, 6th best play-action team per EPA.
Titans: third most outside zone runs in the NFL, best play-action team per EPA.
49ers: fourth most outside zone runs in the NFL, 3rd best play-action team per EPA.
Rams: fifth most outside zone runs in the NFL, 10th best play-action team per EPA.

In sum, outside zone runs are incredibly productive in both the ground game and the play-action game. Nick Chubb is probably the best outside zone runner in the NFL. Yet the Browns barely ran outside zone last year, at least compared to the production they got off of it. Stefanski, by comparison, loves the outside zone and uses it to make his players better and more productive.

Do you have numbers on the 2018 Patriots, playoff-only?

If I remember correctly, watching that team run the ball was incredible. They were using the run as the big chunk play because the defense was focused on stopping the short passing plays. I feel like McDaniels in that playoff run set the precedent that the 49ers used this year.

 

[Jordan]

Do you have numbers on the 2018 Patriots, playoff-only?

If I remember correctly, watching that team run the ball was incredible. They were using the run as the big chunk play because the defense was focused on stopping the short passing plays. I feel like McDaniels in that playoff run set the precedent that the 49ers used this year.

Unfortunately, I do not think they have playoff data logged. I imagine it was the same for this season's 49ers too. Both teams ostensibly encouraged opponents to try to create pressure within the pocket and not from the outside, both due to their own line weaknesses and, as you noted, the short passing game. This meant that the outside zone was available and unstoppable.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Unfortunately, I do not think they have playoff data logged. I imagine it was the same for this season's 49ers too. Both teams ostensibly encouraged opponents to try to create pressure within the pocket and not from the outside, both due to their own line weaknesses and, as you noted, the short passing game. This meant that the outside zone was available and unstoppable.

Damn.

The thing that really impressed me about the Pats and McDaniels that year was that they were doing it with Sony Michel, who looked like garbage his first year. His ability, and willingness, to use the run like that during the playoff stretch cemented McDaniels as one of the best OC's currently in the league to me.

 

[Jordan]

Damn.

The thing that really impressed me about the Pats and McDaniels that year was that they were doing it with Sony Michel, who looked like garbage his first year. His ability, and willingness, to use the run like that during the playoff stretch cemented McDaniels as one of the best OC's currently in the league to me.

I am glad the Browns hired Stefanski, do not get me wrong, but I would have also loved the McDaniels hiring. He is very similar to Belichick vis-a-vis strategy. Teams generally know what the Patriots are going to do in coverage, but he makes these small adjustments that have an unreal impact

I.E., the Rams were slowed-down towards the end of 2018 by quarters coverage. It was more difficult for Goff to read and was pretty effective... at least until the playoffs, when McVay just outside zoned defensive lines to death. So Belichick decided to play a 6-2 front, which made it much more difficult to establish the accurate read in the zone and worked especially well because so many of the Patriots' defensive line and linebackers were interchangeable.

McDaniels is similar on offense. He does not have one system that he keeps, even throughout the course of a season, and makes small adjustments to defeat their opponents. Michel's speed destroyed teams who were focused on stopping the Patriots' short passing game and McDaniels saved that little adjustment until the playoffs began.

 

[shoes22]

Finally having a competent coach after years of WTF, makes you appreciate the little things...like a coach that knows how to manage timeouts correctly.

This is something that Hue and Freddie couldn’t figure out to save their lives.

 

[Cassity14]

The guy clearly understands offense and has obviously taken the time to study what situations his players excel in. He's then made sure they are put into position to be successful.

The offense is also slowly adding layers to it. I forget who it was earlier in the week saying they hadn't seen as much pre-snap motion as they expected, but there was quite a bit today. Throw in the end arounds, the WR pass, etc. and it's clear they're adding more things in every week.

I want so badly for this guy to be the Browns head coach for a long time, and I'm very grateful he wasn't thrown to the fire of Dorsey, the expectations, and the dogshit offensive line last year.

 

[Chris]

Early, but this guy looks competent. Not even looking at the record. Just the little things.

 

[Surge]

Just for shits and gigs if the Cowboys come back and win, are we all feeling the same about Stefanksi?

 

[Ohio]

Just for shits and gigs if the Cowboys come back and win, are we all feeling the same about Stefanksi?

Yeah, it's not really his fault the defense is utterly pathetic.

Though, he definitely put the brakes on the offense too soon. Learning moment.

But he's been pretty much flawless otherwise.