The Kevin Stefanski: Two-Time Coach of the Year Thread

[Vee-Rex]

Anyone down for firing Stefanski and hiring Matt Patricia? He’s available.

 

[Ohio]

Not sure I agree with those percentages. Making it a 2 possession game with <6 minutes left only raises the winning percentage from 92 to 95. But getting a first down goes 92 to 98?

Well you get to run at least 3 more plays, which kills more clock, and still be in FG range. So even if you don't get another first down, you're then making it a 2 possession game with under 4 minutes left.

 

[CBBI]

I didn't have an issue with going for it there, either.

However. Run the damn ball on 3rd down, too. Chances are you'll be able to gain a foot in two runs.

Stefanski has been awesome but he was undoubtedly bad today. Just some baffling decisions and play calls.

But see this is where there's disconnect for me.

Is a play call bad if it's designed perfectly, called at the perfect time, results in a wide open player and fails because one person doesn't execute?

Like there's nothing about this play call that is bad other than the execution of one player.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Well you get to run at least 3 more plays, which kills more clock, and still be in FG range. So even if you don't get another first down, you're then making it a 2 possession game with under 4 minutes left.

Assuming no turnovers. I mean it's clearly a coin flip and I think this shows it's clearly wasn't a cut and dry decision but.... Points are points

 

[bob2the2nd]

But see this is where there's disconnect for me.

Is a play call bad if it's designed perfectly, called at the perfect time, results in a wide open player and fails because one person doesn't execute?

Like there's nothing about this play call that is bad other than the execution.

View attachment 4486

Yeah but if Baker leads Hunt, Hunt is out of bounds.

Was this a good throw, no. Absolutely not. But a regular throw puts hunt fighting to stay in bounds. I understand why Baker tried to pull the ball back, he just did it too much. Hardly his 2nd worst throw of the game.

 

[daddywags]

Not sure I agree with those percentages. Making it a 2 possession game with <6 minutes left only raises the winning percentage from 92 to 95. But getting a first down goes 92 to 98?

Probably because a first down runs the clock at least three more plays and still allows the field goal.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Probably because a first down runs the clock at least three more plays and still allows the field goal.

Assuming no turnovers or any significant backwards movement. Which to me seems, not insignificant? Like I said either way this was clearly a toss up decision just not sure I agree with the exact percentages

 

[shoes22]

Not sure I agree with those percentages. Making it a 2 possession game with <6 minutes left only raises the winning percentage from 92 to 95. But getting a first down goes 92 to 98?

I agree that 3% disparity seems a bit high, assuming a fresh set of downs means either a touchdown, or running enough time down off the clock to where a two-possession FG is worth that much more than the current field position and time.

I’d expect closer to 97%, but it’s close enough with rounding that 98% is feasible.

 

[Ohio]

But see this is where there's disconnect for me.

Is a play call bad if it's designed perfectly, called at the perfect time, results in a wide open player and fails because one person doesn't execute?

Like there's nothing about this play call that is bad other than the execution of one player.

View attachment 4486

Considering your personnel is part of playcalling, imo.

You know Baker has issues at times with overthrows. At this point in the game we had already seen a handful. Probably 10% of his throws today were just bad misses.

You also know Chubb & Hunt are basically guaranteed to get one foot in 2 attempts.

Take the guarantee. Move the chains, keep eating clock.

Stefanski opted to pass in several other similar scenarios today and the only one I can recall working was on 4th down...and that one was an awful call that was saved by a remarkable pass & catch from Baker & Hodge.

 

[CBBI]

Not sure I agree with those percentages. Making it a 2 possession game with <6 minutes left only raises the winning percentage from 92 to 95. But getting a first down goes 92 to 98?

I mean the numbers are right there in the Tweet.

85% chance to go up 9 with 5:35 to go.

72% chance to run an additional 2:25 minimum off the clock or at the very least make Jacksonville use all their timeouts, but I think Jax would have held on to them with 5:35 to go in an effort to try and use them after they scored to try and get the ball back. And then you still go up the same 9 points after kicking an even shorter FG with about 3 minutes left.

It wasn't like Jacksonville really slowed down the Browns run attack. They just happened to execute really well on that particular play.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Not sure I agree with those percentages. Making it a 2 possession game with <6 minutes left only raises the winning percentage from 92 to 95. But getting a first down goes 92 to 98?

The problem is there’s no way the model is adjusted for the Mike Glennon effect. 5% chance of losing against the Yinzers in that scenario? Yeah, I can buy that. Against the 1-9 Jaguars with a guy who hasn’t started a game in 3 years? Would have been the nail near the coffin IMO

 

[CBBI]

Yeah but if Baker leads Hunt, Hunt is out of bounds.

Was this a good throw, no. Absolutely not. But a regular throw puts hunt fighting to stay in bounds. I understand why Baker tried to pull the ball back, he just did it too much. Hardly his 2nd worst throw of the game.

For goodness sake this is the NFL. Stop making excuses for this nonsense.

This is a professional quarterback with no defenders near him staring at a wide open receiver just eight yards away from him.

If he can't accurately make this throw, then he need to be out of the NFL.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

But see this is where there's disconnect for me.

Is a play call bad if it's designed perfectly, called at the perfect time, results in a wide open player and fails because one person doesn't execute?

Like there's nothing about this play call that is bad other than the execution of one player.

View attachment 4486

Agreed. I think teams are too predictable in short yardage situations and it leaves room for explosive gains if you don’t just run it. The Jags on their 4th down conversion where not a single brown covered Robinson on such an easy rollout is an example

 

[bob2the2nd]

For goodness sake this is the NFL. Stop making excuses for this nonsense.

This is a professional quarterback with no defenders near him staring at a wide open receiver just eight yards away from him.

If he can't accurately make this throw, then he need to be out of the NFL.

Yeah because when a ball hits a receiver in the hands he should fucking catch it. The is the NFL stopping making up fucking excuses.

Am I doing it right?

 

[CBBI]

Considering your personnel is part of playcalling, imo.

You know Baker has issues at times with overthrows. At this point in the game we had already seen a handful. Probably 10% of his throws today were just bad misses.

You also know Chubb & Hunt are basically guaranteed to get one foot in 2 attempts.

Take the guarantee. Move the chains, keep eating clock.

Stefanski opted to pass in several other similar scenarios today and the only one I can recall working was on 4th down...and that one was an awful call that was saved by a remarkable pass & catch from Baker & Hodge.

I'm sorry, but if you're a head coach and you can't trust your QB to make an uncontested 8 yard throw to a guy with no defenders anywhere near him in perfect weather conditions... then what are we even doing here?