The Kevin Stefanski: Two-Time Coach of the Year Thread

[Douglar]

Browns rewind: Loss to Cardinals was bad, and it could have been a lot worse

Cleveland was throttled from top to bottom and now faces a Thursday night matchup with injury concerns all over the field.

theathletic.com

....When the Browns went for it on fourth-and-4, they had just six blockers against a seven-man blitz. Once Mayfield didn’t see anyone open initially, he was stuck in the pocket as Jordan Hicks closed in on him for the sack. That’s four times in the last four games that the Browns have been sacked on a fourth-down play; they’re 3-of-11 in converting those fourth downs.​

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On those fourth-down failures, Kevin Stefanski said Monday: “I really believe we have to call better plays and we have to execute better. In those moments when we are going for it, I have to make sure I give the guys something they can execute and something (where) we can get the ball out of our hands on time.​

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....​

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The Cardinals simply dared the Browns to throw on them. “They just ran a 6-2 defense,” Browns guard Joel Bitonio said. “It’s hard to run against a 6-2 defense, and that’s why you saw us passing the ball early in the game. ... for a team to run 6-2 for a majority of the snaps, they really want to take away one aspect of your game, the run game.”​

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After Sunday’s game, Stefanski said the Browns started the game with empty backfields to try to take advantage of the Cardinals stacking the box. “They were in some big personnel, so there were some advantageous looks we felt to spread them out,” he said.​

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....​

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In the second quarter versus the Cardinals, it appeared the Browns might have had a chunk play when a Hunt run to the left looked like it was supposed to be a reverse to Odell Beckham Jr. coming back to the right. Hunt kept it instead, and Bitonio’s reaction after the play indicated that another handoff was supposed to take place.​

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Asked about that Monday, Stefanski said, “I really do not want to get into the specifics of those types of things, respectfully. There are a bunch of different things and a bunch of different things I wish I did differently, and we can clean those things up.”​

 

[I'mWithDan]

To further expand on the point of Stefanski's scheme here......look at this chart.

QB's sorted by 2021 performance over average calculation with rbsdm data and the teams Offensive DVOA rank:



We are the only team in the top half of the entire league getting more significant below average QB play, while having a good offense. Not just a good offense, a top 8 offense.

What is more amazing about this is that Stefanski's system is the outlier here. Look at the correlation. The (-0.831), which is a strong negative correlation. So one value increases (play above average) and the other decreases (OFF DVOA rank.....i.e. the "lower" the number in numerical value, the better). Like in the chart below....you want to be bottom right, as in #1. So as your QB play gets better, you generally go further and further to the right.

This also shows how teams like the Raiders are doing less with their good QB play and the Browns (Baker in orange) are doing WAY more with their below average play.


Someone is probably thinking, ok.......but the running game should carry the team, it is what we do best! But that really isn't the point here to me. Why? Because QB play matters exponentially more. Like look at this chart.......the relation to team Rush DVOA on offense and EPA performance of a QB. It has little to no correlation (-0.299) to QB play in 2021. A good QB is a good QB, even in the absence of offensive balance or run production. And if that QB is good, the offense is good (see the chart above).....regardless of most other variables.



So that is the massive problem this year. Below average QB play is so detrimental to an offense, that it just generally destroys any advantages a team has elsewhere. The Browns being able to sustain this in a way that no other team has, speaks to scheme and coaching to me.

Again, Stefanski isn't perfect here......but he has been operating in 2021 with a pretty good handicap at QB and he has still managed to produce a top 10 offense.......something no other coach or scheme has been able to manage with similar production relative to the league average QB in 2021 (even other ones with great rushing offenses).

 

[AZ_]

To further expand on the point of Stefanski's scheme here......look at this chart. QB's sorted by 2021 performance over average and the teams Offensive DVOA rank:

View attachment 6783

We are the only team in the top half of the entire league getting more significant below average QB play, while having a good offense. Not just a good offense, a top 8 offense.

What is more amazing about this is that Stefanski's system is the outlier here. Look at the correlation. The (-0.831), which is a strong negative correlation. So one value increases (play above average) and the other decreases (OFF DVOA rank.....i.e. the "lower" the number in numerical value, the better). Like in the chart below....you want to be bottom right, as in #1. So as your QB play gets better, you generally go further and further to the right.

This also shows how teams like the Raiders are doing less with their good QB play and the Browns (Baker in orange) are doing WAY more with their below average play.

View attachment 6784
Someone is probably thinking, ok.......but the running game should carry the team, it is what we do best! But that really isn't the point here to me. Why? Because QB play matters exponentially more. Like look at this chart.......the relation to team Rush DVOA on offense and EPA performance of a QB. It has little to no correlation (-0.299) to QB play in 2021. A good QB is a good QB, even in the absence of offensive balance or run production. And if that QB is good, the offense is good (see the chart above).....regardless of most other variables.

View attachment 6786

So that is the massive problem this year. Below average QB play is so detrimental to an offense, that it just generally destroys any advantages a team has elsewhere. The Browns being able to sustain this in a way that no other team has, speaks to scheme and coaching to me.

Again, Stefanski isn't perfect here......but he has been operating in 2021 with a pretty good handicap at QB and he has still managed to produce a top 10 offense.......something no other coach or scheme has been able to manage with similar production relative to the league average QB in 2021 (even other ones with great rushing offenses).

Baker doing less = greater team efficiency.

Incredible insight here.

 

[I'mWithDan]

More scheme madness here this week.

Through 6 weeks of 2021, the median QBR performance was 54.7.

Kind of Matt Ryan / Carson Wentz ish performance. Both QB's on pretty forgettable offenses so far. Indy is #15 in O DVOA, Atlanta #29.

Case posted a 46.7 QBR last night and a 3.9 EPA per ESPN's stats. Through 6 games, that is roughly performance on par with Sam Darnold in both QBR and EPA.

Here are the offensive statistics last night, relative to league average this season.....with a backup QB who is cooked and a 3rd string RB.

Total Yards: 376 (359.9) +4.5%
Passing Yards: 194 (247.2) -22%
Rushing Yards: 182 (112.7) +62%
Average Drive Plays: 8.4 (6.04) +39%
Average Drive Yards: 47 (33.1) +42%
Average Drive Points: 2.125 (2.14 PTS) - 1%
Median Time of Possession: 36:51 (30:01) +23%

This shit is honestly sorcery at this point. Stefanski is playing without the most efficient aspect of offense being even league average and he is dump trucking some of these defenses. It is wild. The average drive numbers are insane relative to league average.

For context on the drive numbers above. The Chiefs, who have a nuclear QB and one of the best offensive coaches in the league, are the leaders in plays per drive and yards per drive. Here are their season averages.

KC Average Drive Plays: 7.2
KC Average Drive Yards: 45.5

We didn't score as efficiently as KC does (although that last drive left some hidden points)........but we just absolutely churned out drive metrics at a level that is incomprehensible with the QB play we are getting.

 

[Damage]

^ 17 points won't reflect that this was one of Stefanski's best-coached games. The movement, alignments, just everything was end-end perfection. Tremendous growth on his part.

3rd down defense is still a huge problem but it really comes down to tackling (specifically Harrison who has been a consistent problem).

 

[Douglar]

This shit is honestly sorcery at this point. Stefanski is playing without the most efficient aspect of offense being even league average and he is dump trucking some of these defenses. It is wild. The average drive numbers are insane relative to league average.

Stephanski's meat grinding machine thrives in low possession games. This is the important number:

Average Drive Plays: 8.4 (6.04) +39%​

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Long drives means fewer possession change time outs and fewer incomplete passes which means more time is burned off the clock which means fewer total plays which means lower per game stats, including points per game.

This Browns team is built to win games where the opponent gets < 15 possessions a game

 

[bob2the2nd]

More scheme madness here this week.

Through 6 weeks of 2021, the median QBR performance was 54.7.

Kind of Matt Ryan / Carson Wentz ish performance. Both QB's on pretty forgettable offenses so far. Indy is #15 in O DVOA, Atlanta #29.

Case posted a 46.7 QBR last night and a 3.9 EPA per ESPN's stats. Through 6 games, that is roughly performance on par with Sam Darnold in both QBR and EPA.

Here are the offensive statistics last night, relative to league average this season.....with a backup QB who is cooked and a 3rd string RB.

Total Yards: 376 (359.9) +4.5%
Passing Yards: 194 (247.2) -22%
Rushing Yards: 182 (112.7) +62%
Average Drive Plays: 8.4 (6.04) +39%
Average Drive Yards: 47 (33.1) +42%
Average Drive Points: 2.125 (2.14 PTS) - 1%
Median Time of Possession: 36:51 (30:01) +23%

This shit is honestly sorcery at this point. Stefanski is playing without the most efficient aspect of offense being even league average and he is dump trucking some of these defenses. It is wild. The average drive numbers are insane relative to league average.

For context on the drive numbers above. The Chiefs, who have a nuclear QB and one of the best offensive coaches in the league, are the leaders in plays per drive and yards per drive. Here are their season averages.

KC Average Drive Plays: 7.2
KC Average Drive Yards: 45.5

We didn't score as efficiently as KC does (although that last drive left some hidden points)........but we just absolutely churned out drive metrics at a level that is incomprehensible with the QB play we are getting.

This isn't sorcery. The browns have the highest paid offensive line in the league with the best offensive line coach. To go with that they have 2 probowl running backs. The browns are winning games using their rushing game. There is nothing fancy to it. The first two games of the year Baker was lights out, but now it's all about the rushing game

 

[CBBI]

This isn't sorcery. The browns have the highest paid offensive line in the league with the best offensive line coach. To go with that they have 2 probowl running backs. The browns are winning games using their rushing game. There is nothing fancy to it. The first two games of the year Baker was lights out, but now it's all about the rushing game

I think you're underselling how difficult it is in this current era of the NFL where things have quite literally never been so wildly slanted in favor of passing offense, for a team to be able to win football games with a passing attack that simply doesn't stack up.

The fact that the Browns are 4-3 and have been so poor in passing situation is really wild. Much more than people realize IMO.

 

[Damage]

I think you're underselling how difficult it is in this current era of the NFL where things have quite literally never been so wildly slanted in favor of passing offense, for a team to be able to win football games with a passing attack that simply doesn't stack up.

The fact that the Browns are 4-3 and have been so poor in passing situation is really wild. Much more than people realize IMO.

...nobody doesn't realize this

It is amazing though.

 

[I'mWithDan]

This isn't sorcery. The browns have the highest paid offensive line in the league with the best offensive line coach. To go with that they have 2 probowl running backs. The browns are winning games using their rushing game. There is nothing fancy to it. The first two games of the year Baker was lights out, but now it's all about the rushing game

While the line definitely helps, it is uncharted territory and a good portion of it has to do with Kevin's scheme and play calling IMO. The top 8 (top 25% of the league) is pretty much exclusively reserved for teams that throw the ball in this upswing in passing.

Teams in the top 8 of Offensive DVOA, also in the top 8 of Pass DVOA, last 5 years:

2020: 6 of 8
2019: 7 of 8
2018: 6 of 8
2017: 8 of 8
2016: 8 of 8

35 of 40 (87.5%) top 8 offenses in Offensive DVOA are also top 8 in Pass DVOA.

Nearly 90% of the time, a top 8 Overall Offensive team needs to be a top 8 passing team as well.

That is already a lot.....but.....

The five teams that were not in the top 8 were:

2020 - Minnesota - #11 Pass DVOA
2020 - New Orleans - #12 Pass DVOA
2019 - Green Bay - #10 Pass DVOA
2018 - Seattle # 9 Pass DVOA
2018 - Green Bay #10 Pass DVOA

So 40 of 40 (100%) top 8 offenses, in Offensive DVOA the last 5 years, have also been at least top 12 in Pass DVOA.

The Browns are currently #16 in Pass DVOA.

#16 is 25% lower in rank, than the lowest ranked passing team to land in the top 25% of the league, in the past 5 seasons. That is wild.

In 2021, more of the same....... 7 of the 8 teams in Offensive DVOA are top 8 in Pass DVOA. That one is the Browns.

In 2021, the 9th and 10th team in Offensive DVOA (Baltimore and SF), are also both in the top 12 in Pass DVOA.

The line should get credit, the line coaches should get credit.......but there's certainly a lot of scheme juice here. A lot.

Last season, the Browns were #10 in Pass DVOA. They have somehow moved up one spot overall through 7 weeks, seeing that passing number fall all the way to #16. It doesn't make any sense.

 

[CBBI]

While the line definitely helps, it is uncharted territory and a good portion of it has to do with Kevin's scheme and play calling IMO. The top 8 (top 25% of the league) is pretty much exclusively reserved for teams that throw the ball in this upswing in passing.

Teams in the top 8 of Offensive DVOA, also in the top 8 of Pass DVOA, last 5 years:

2020: 6 of 8
2019: 7 of 8
2018: 6 of 8
2017: 8 of 8
2016: 8 of 8

35 of 40 (87.5%) top 8 offenses in Offensive DVOA are also top 8 in Pass DVOA.

Nearly 90% of the time, a top 8 Overall Offensive team needs to be a top 8 passing team as well.

The five teams that were not in the top 8 were:

2020 - Minnesota - #11 Pass DVOA
2020 - New Orleans - #12 Pass DVOA
2019 - Green Bay - #10 Pass DVOA
2018 - Seattle # 9 Pass DVOA
2018 - Green Bay #10 Pass DVOA

So 40 of 40 (100%) top 8 offenses, in Offensive DVOA the last 5 years, have also top 12 in Pass DVOA.

The Browns are currently #16 in Pass DVOA.

#16 is 25% lower in rank, than the lowest ranked passing team to land in the top 25% of the league, in the past 5 seasons. That is wild.

In 2021, more of the same....... 7 of the 8 teams in Overall DVOA are top 8 in Pass DVOA. That one is the Browns.

In 2021, the 9th and 10th team in Offensive DVOA (Baltimore and SF), are again, both in the top 12 in Pass DVOA.

The line should get credit, the line coaches should get credit.......but there's certainly a lot of scheme juice here. A lot.

Last season, the Browns were #10 in Pass DVOA. They have somehow moved up one spot overall through 7 weeks, seeing that passing number fall all the way to #16. It doesn't make any sense.

Reader's Digest version of an excellent post...

The 2021 Browns are currently the worst passing top 8 offense in a long time.

And a huge chunk of that can be contributed to Stefanski's scheme (in addition to the OL and RB room).

 

[I'mWithDan]

More stuff that is hard to explain

CLE - Total Rushes per game

2020 - 30.94
2021 - 32.44 (+4.6%)

CLE - Yards Per Carry

2020 - 4.8 YPC
2021 - 5.3 YPC (+9.4%)

CLE - As a share of offensive plays:

2020 - 49.7%
2021 - 52.1% (+4.7%)

So 5% more per game, we are running a play that is WILDY less effective on average.....and our offense is better over average in 2021 vs 2020.

55.3% of the time, teams throw the ball in 2021. The Browns are at 47.9%.

The Browns are passing 13.4% less........than league average, and have a top 8 offense.

It's all silly......especially this chart for a team that is 4-3 overall, with a harder than average schedule thus far. We are passing on a Dropback EPA/play basis with teams (NYG, WFT, HOU, ATL) that are a combined 6-17 (0.353). Of the other teams below average on an EPA/play drop back basis, their combined record is 26-56 (0.317). Teams with below average Dropback EPA/play are averaging 1.9 wins right now.

 

[bob2the2nd]

While the line definitely helps, it is uncharted territory and a good portion of it has to do with Kevin's scheme and play calling IMO. The top 8 (top 25% of the league) is pretty much exclusively reserved for teams that throw the ball in this upswing in passing.

Teams in the top 8 of Offensive DVOA, also in the top 8 of Pass DVOA, last 5 years:

2020: 6 of 8
2019: 7 of 8
2018: 6 of 8
2017: 8 of 8
2016: 8 of 8

35 of 40 (87.5%) top 8 offenses in Offensive DVOA are also top 8 in Pass DVOA.

Nearly 90% of the time, a top 8 Overall Offensive team needs to be a top 8 passing team as well.

That is already a lot.....but.....

The five teams that were not in the top 8 were:

2020 - Minnesota - #11 Pass DVOA
2020 - New Orleans - #12 Pass DVOA
2019 - Green Bay - #10 Pass DVOA
2018 - Seattle # 9 Pass DVOA
2018 - Green Bay #10 Pass DVOA

So 40 of 40 (100%) top 8 offenses, in Offensive DVOA the last 5 years, have also been at least top 12 in Pass DVOA.

The Browns are currently #16 in Pass DVOA.

#16 is 25% lower in rank, than the lowest ranked passing team to land in the top 25% of the league, in the past 5 seasons. That is wild.

In 2021, more of the same....... 7 of the 8 teams in Offensive DVOA are top 8 in Pass DVOA. That one is the Browns.

In 2021, the 9th and 10th team in Offensive DVOA (Baltimore and SF), are also both in the top 12 in Pass DVOA.

The line should get credit, the line coaches should get credit.......but there's certainly a lot of scheme juice here. A lot.

Last season, the Browns were #10 in Pass DVOA. They have somehow moved up one spot overall through 7 weeks, seeing that passing number fall all the way to #16. It doesn't make any sense.

Constructive criticism because i think you are on to something, however you really need to learn how to show stats a bit better. The 25% lower rank is absolutely immaterial to your presentation. What would be a lot more helpful is the actual DVOA scales. We have no idea if the passing gap its the size of the grand canyon or if its a fraction of a point. Because if its a fraction of a point then it makes all the sense in the world that they are excellent at running the ball and basically bordering on top 10 passing so they come out to top 8. Where as if there is a huge massive gap, then yeah its even more impressive the browns running backs are carrying the team.

Furthermore you dont actually say what number the browns are with overall DVOA. I read this and just automatically assume the browns are number 8. So then I do the math and number 1 running team combined with a number 16 passing team.. and i get 8.5 as an average. So then why is it a shock the browns are in the top 8 overall DVOA if their individual components between passign and rushing literally average out to the expected outcome.

Like i said I think you are on to something but the means in which it is presented leaves it fuzzy to the reader and completely open to interpretation.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Constructive criticism because i think you are on to something, however you really need to learn how to show stats a bit better. The 25% lower rank is absolutely immaterial to your presentation. What would be a lot more helpful is the actual DVOA scales. We have no idea if the passing gap its the size of the grand canyon or if its a fraction of a point. Because if its a fraction of a point then it makes all the sense in the world that they are excellent at running the ball and basically bordering on top 10 passing so they come out to top 8. Where as if there is a huge massive gap, then yeah its even more impressive the browns running backs are carrying the team.

DVOA scale relation probably takes a lot more time. But I'll keep that in mind for sure the next time I pull these stats. I would guess it says the same thing, but I can check at some point.

Furthermore you dont actually say what number the browns are with overall DVOA. I read this and just automatically assume the browns are number 8. So then I do the math and number 1 running team combined with a number 16 passing team.. and i get 8.5 as an average. So then why is it a shock the browns are in the top 8 overall DVOA if their individual components between passign and rushing literally average out to the expected outcome.

The Browns are #8 Overall in Offensive DVOA.

The Jags are #1 in Rush DVOA, #30 in Pass DVOA, a 15.5 average but are #24 in overall DVOA.

Another quick and obvious example of that would be Philly. #3 in Rush DVOA, #22 in Pass DVOA, a 12.5 average but are #18 in Overall DVOA.

So it appears it is not simply a stock average of those raw numbers.

It was a quick look, so there is probably even more nuance that could be investigated but still pretty wild how the influence of passing has dominated offense in the last 5 and the Browns are somehow trying to wedge their way in their in-spite of below average QB play.

 

[I'mWithDan]

@bob2the2nd

Here is #16 (where the Browns are) relative to Over Average as a team

2021 - 18.7%
2020 - 14.8%
2019 - 14.0%
2018 - 14.3%
2017 - 12.2%
2016 - 16.9%

The Browns in 2020 were 20.9% Over average. So relative to average, our passing is down around 11% from last season.

The 18.7% will likely trend down as games are played but shows how high the bar is right now passing the ball.

Last year, Football Outsiders had:

Mayfield 2020: +7.9% Value Over Average (#14)
Mayfield 2021: -1.3% Value Over Average (#18)