Tondo's 2024 Top 100 Guardians prospects

[CDAV45]

Rocchio is a top 50 overall (and 2nd) at both FG and mlbpipeline and at the top of Law's Athletic’s ranking, so maybe reassess what is consensus and contrarian opinion here.

Manzardo and DeLauter are most probably better hitters, absolutely, but that isn't all that matters here.

Manzardo/Rocchio was a coin flip and DeLauter was close to that group but I want to see him do it against real upper minors pitching first even though by a indicators he should crush it.

Most rankings within a tier can be rearranged anyway, especially deeper down the system.

Here's a question that I haven't asked and forgive me if it has been. Why isn't there talk of Rocchio converting to CF? Seems as if Martinez is/was a possibility, but why not Rocchio? I'm not advocating for that to happen, but I wonder why it doesn't appear to have been an optio.

 

[Gson]

Here's a question that I haven't asked and forgive me if it has been. Why isn't there talk of Rocchio converting to CF? Seems as if Martinez is/was a possibility, but why not Rocchio? I'm not advocating for that to happen, but I wonder why it doesn't appear to have been an optio.

Rocchio is all Middle infielder, primarily Shortstop and ONLY MI/shortstop.. He'd be the younger guy who moves Arias off SS to 3B or RF.. that would be the "option" the CleFO/Field Management would follow.. imho..

 

[Kiddo]

Here's a question that I haven't asked and forgive me if it has been. Why isn't there talk of Rocchio converting to CF? Seems as if Martinez is/was a possibility, but why not Rocchio? I'm not advocating for that to happen, but I wonder why it doesn't appear to have been an optio.

Because if Rocchio hits well enough he's the SS. If Arias also hits well enough he's the RF, he's looked good out there in limited games.

 

[CDAV45]

Rocchio is all Middle infielder, primarily Shortstop and ONLY MI/shortstop.. He'd be the younger guy who moves Arias off SS to 3B or RF.. that would be the "option" the CleFO/Field Management would follow.. imho..

You mean "be the younger" by less than a year? There's a real good chance that Rocchio will not supplant Arias from SS.

Why is Rocchio only a MI when someone like Martinez isn't? If anything, Rocchio's profile would seem to be a better transition to CF than Martinez.

For conversation's sake let's assume that Arias has all but secured SS. Then what?

 

[MirORich]

Rocchio is a top 50 overall (and 2nd) at both FG and mlbpipeline and at the top of Law's Athletic’s ranking, so maybe reassess what is consensus and contrarian opinion here.

Manzardo and DeLauter are most probably better hitters, absolutely, but that isn't all that matters here.

Manzardo/Rocchio was a coin flip and DeLauter was close to that group but I want to see him do it against real upper minors pitching first even though by a indicators he should crush it.

Most rankings within a tier can be rearranged anyway, especially deeper down the system.

A fair and more magnanimous response then my snarky post deserved.

 

[FFRva]

Better defense and build

You mean "be the younger" by less than a year? There's a real good chance that Rocchio will not supplant Arias from SS.

Why is Rocchio only a MI when someone like Martinez isn't? If anything, Rocchio's profile would seem to be a better transition to CF than Martinez.

For conversation's sake let's assume that Arias has all but secured SS. Then what?

It's been reported by multiple people that Angel's defense isn't as good and he would be one ideally to move off of short. Plenty of the scouting services and Bimbo have said as much

 

[Gson]

You mean "be the younger" by less than a year? There's a real good chance that Rocchio will not supplant Arias from SS.

Why is Rocchio only a MI when someone like Martinez isn't? If anything, Rocchio's profile would seem to be a better transition to CF than Martinez.

For conversation's sake let's assume that Arias has all but secured SS. Then what?

Then he doesn't play SS or 2B.. He becomes a utility guy who can play 2B/SS/3B... 3B being his poorest spot..

 

[CDAV45]

Better defense and build

It's been reported by multiple people that Angel's defense isn't as good and he would be one ideally to move off of short. Plenty of the scouting services and Bimbo have said as much

I don't know if that's the best approach. I mean you're suggesting that they move a guy because he isn't as adept at SS as Rocchio even though Rocchio may be the better candidate for CF.

I think they should figure out(quickly) who they want in the middle IF and then try to secure some SP or actual OF help with the extras(whoever that may be). Easier said than done, but that would be my intention.

 

[Tondo]

Btw, I didn't rank DDLS because 2/3 of the outcomes are: he's offered back or he stays and loses prospect eligibility quickly.

He'd slot in at the top of the 40+ group in the high teens, if they make a trade and send him to Columbus.

 

[Tondo]

Since I won't be able to write up every prospect, I've decided to concentrate on players that have moved up (or entered) a tier (or more) from last year.

70 RHP Magnus Ellerts (22.7yo)

Ellerts was considered one of the best JuCo arms available in the 2022 draft. He made several top 200 draft lists, so Cleveland got really good value when they drafted the 6'5 Ellerts in the 11th rd (331st ovr) of that draft for slot 125K (forfeited chance to go to Florida and pitch in the SEC).
Ellerts did start in JuCo, but was purely seen as a two pitch RP prospect with his FB/SL combo potentially being both plus. He didn't pitch in live games after the draft, but he split his debut season in Lynchburg and Lake County. He appeared in 16 games each for both teams, covering 41 innings.
The results were very encouraging. Out of 84 farmhands with 30+ IP, Ellerts had the best K/9 in the system at 14.71. His FIP was 3rd best behind org breakouts Franco Aleman and Will Dion, his xFIP was the best in the organization at 2.48.
To put those numbers even more into perspective: Out of 1832 pitchers in all of affiliated minor league baseball with 40+ IP, Ellerts' K/9 still ranked 16th best (5th best in his age group) and his xFIP was still good for 6th best.
IOW, Elllerts' two pitch mix came as advertised, he has elite swing and miss stuff out of the pen. Add his 6'5/225 frame to the profile and it's easy to envision a setup type ceiling with a middle reliever floor.
Ellerts will probably open the 2024 season as a backend RP in Lake County as he struggled a bit with command there, but I fully expect him to make his way to Akron by mid season. He's one of the best pure RP prospects in the system and he has just started his ascension.

 

[Tondo]

63 C Kody Huff (23.0yo)

Huff was considered one of the better all around HS catchers in the 2019 draft, but he didn't sign after the Rays took a late 32nd rd flyer on him and instead went to Stanford, where he was the starting C in his SO and JR seasons. After a modest first season there, he enjoyed a breakout in his draft year, slashing 315/411/567 in a big conference setting. This put him back on the draft radar and he was widely considered a mid to late 2nd day player. That's exactly where the Colorado Rockies took him, in round 7 of the 2022 draft.

The Rockies gave him a conservative assignment to their low A affiliate where Huff remained all season. It turned out to be the right call, as Huff really struggled in April and May (610 OPS). But from June on he hit 290 with an OBP just under 400 and 840ish OPS. Overall, that allowed him to finish the season above average as a hitter. After the season he was named the league's best defensive catcher by BA after throwing out 29% of base stealers.

The Guardians traded for Huff a few weeks ago as return for Cal Quantrill, so he's now part of the infamous Mike Clevinger haul.

Huff will enter 2024 as 23yo in A+ Lake County, where he will share C duties with Robert Lopez, who's only 20 and should be the primary development focus there. Huff will still see plenty of action, but can already apply his Pack 12 experience in a role he's most likely to develop into, namely that of a solid backup C with above average defensive skills. Huff doesn't have a high ceiling, but his good defense, career pedigree and very low swing and miss give him a high floor with a realistic shot to reach the Majors in a backup role. And you never know with catchers, maybe more if he continues to hit like he did in the second half last season.

 

[Tondo]

56 OF Tommy Hawke (21.5yo)
53 INF Christian Knapczyck (22.0yo)

Knapczyck and Hawke were the Guardians 5th and 6th round picks from the 2023 draft, where they seemed to really focus on ACC conference hitters, as they picked 5 in a row (Kayfus, Ingle and Mooney with 2nd rd P Walters also ACC). Maybe of note: one of the potential no1 prospects for the 2024 draft, Nick Kurtz, is also an ACC bat.

Both are smallish (under 5'10), extreme hit over (very little) power with good speed. Both have been among the best ACC conference hitters from day one in college, so both came with strong track records. And they also performed in their summer league appearances.
Knapczyck was consistently ranked around 150 on most draft boards and that's where he landed (161st overall). Hawke (188th) was ranked anywhere from 100 to 250, but was higher than Knapczyck on some boards (PG had him 107). So both were very solid values where they were taken.

Here are their draft profiles from FSS/PL:
Christian Knapczyk started as a true freshman for Louisville as their everyday shortstop, and had a productive campaign that carried over into a strong summer on the Cape for Bourne. Knapczyk has a simple swing that stays short to the ball and is geared for line drive contact. He shows good plate coverage and works counts to find pitches that he can drive into the gaps. Limited power, has yet to hit a collegiate home run. Put up a few 70 grade run times on the Cape, speed is going to be a huge part of his game. Mostly played shortstop in 2021, athletic defender that can make plays with his range and his arm. Has soft hands, a good internal clock, sound footwork, and surprising arm strength and utility for a guy that's 5'9'' 155 lbs.

Hawke is a dynamic, unassuming table-setter with a patient, slasher mindset and the ability to do some damage once on-base. He doesn't have much power, but that's not his game either. He's a singles hitter who can play a solid average center- or left field. He's got a shot to go on day two if a team buys into the seemingly top-of-the-scale bat-to-ball skills.

Hawke has a lot of Kwan out of college in his profile, while Knapczyck's reminded me of Ernie Clement, another former ACC bat. I expect both to open conservatively at single A Lynchburg, simply because of the prospect logjam ahead of them, as both have the track record to open in A+ right away, but it shouldn't take long for them to get there, just like the very similar Nate Furman, who was the org's 4th rd pick a year before.
Future defensive home will be an important part of their prospect journey. If Knapczyck can remain at SS and Hawke in CF, it would rewally elevate their stock and fit their profiles best.

 

[sportscoach]

56 OF Tommy Hawke (21.5yo)
53 INF Christian Knapczyck (22.0yo)

Knapczyck and Hawke were the Guardians 5th and 6th round picks from the 2023 draft, where they seemed to really focus on ACC conference hitters, as they picked 5 in a row (Kayfus, Ingle and Mooney with 2nd rd P Walters also ACC). Maybe of note: one of the potential no1 prospects for the 2024 draft, Nick Kurtz, is also an ACC bat.

Both are smallish (under 5'10), extreme hit over (very little) power with good speed. Both have been among the best ACC conference hitters from day one in college, so both came with strong track records. And they also performed in their summer league appearances.
Knapczyck was consistently ranked around 150 on most draft boards and that's where he landed (161st overall). Hawke (188th) was ranked anywhere from 100 to 250, but was higher than Knapczyck on some boards (PG had him 107). So both were very solid values where they were taken.

Here are their draft profiles from FSS/PL:
Christian Knapczyk started as a true freshman for Louisville as their everyday shortstop, and had a productive campaign that carried over into a strong summer on the Cape for Bourne. Knapczyk has a simple swing that stays short to the ball and is geared for line drive contact. He shows good plate coverage and works counts to find pitches that he can drive into the gaps. Limited power, has yet to hit a collegiate home run. Put up a few 70 grade run times on the Cape, speed is going to be a huge part of his game. Mostly played shortstop in 2021, athletic defender that can make plays with his range and his arm. Has soft hands, a good internal clock, sound footwork, and surprising arm strength and utility for a guy that's 5'9'' 155 lbs.

Hawke is a dynamic, unassuming table-setter with a patient, slasher mindset and the ability to do some damage once on-base. He doesn't have much power, but that's not his game either. He's a singles hitter who can play a solid average center- or left field. He's got a shot to go on day two if a team buys into the seemingly top-of-the-scale bat-to-ball skills.

Hawke has a lot of Kwan out of college in his profile, while Knapczyck's reminded me of Ernie Clement, another former ACC bat. I expect both to open conservatively at single A Lynchburg, simply because of the prospect logjam ahead of them, as both have the track record to open in A+ right away, but it shouldn't take long for them to get there, just like the very similar Nate Furman, who was the org's 4th rd pick a year before.
Future defensive home will be an important part of their prospect journey. If Knapczyck can remain at SS and Hawke in CF, it would rewally elevate their stock and fit their profiles best.

So it sounds like in the draft on day two we will see a lot of the Brennan/Kwan type of hitters and/or Bibee/Bieber style of pitchers going forward? The heavy contact or heavy command pitchers which are strong floor types...