Trade ideas: Offseason edition

[Rookie]

Some of MIddleton's games againt BKN.

35 points and 15 rebounds in a 3 point, low scoring game.

25 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists.

38 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals.

And in game 7 23 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 5 steals. Back to back games with 5 steals.


Sexton might be able to get to the hole a little easier.

And there's no doubt their defense would be far worse and I'm positive if they had Sexton and not Middleton, they're out last round.

Also, as I'll keep pointing, SExton's 3 point shooting is misleading. He doesn't take any of them unless he's very wide open and has a lot of time to position the ball. Make him take 8-10 3s a game, some of them closely guarded, and he's not a 40% 3 point shooter anymore.

I'm not disagreeing with your other comments but no one takes 8-10 3 pointers a game.
I dont know why we're acting like that's a mark against him.

 

[Derek]

I'm not disagreeing with your other comments but no one takes 8-10 3 pointers a game.
I dont know why we're acting like that's a mark against him.

There were 12 guys this past year that took 8+ 3's per game and those are the guys Sextons needs to be emulating
20 guys took 7+
40 guys took 6+

 

[Rich]

I'm not disagreeing with your other comments but no one takes 8-10 3 pointers a game.
I dont know why we're acting like that's a mark against him.

I mean right now in the post-season Middleton is taking 7.3 a game. So 8-10 may have been a little high, but it's significantly more than Sexton's 4.4 a game.

 

[fncavsfan]

This is taping a bit of a leap, but there’s been rumors for a while about Indy trading Turner, and I read quite a bit of stuff during the season about them potentially wanting to trade Brogdan and let LeVert be the primary ball-handler. If that’s actually the case, I could see something like this possibly working out.

Trade #1:

Cavs Get:
Simmons

Pacers Get:
Curry
Hill
Philly ‘21 1st

76ers Get:
Sexton
Prince
Nance
Brogdan

Trade #2

Allen S&T for Turner

This potentially could be one trade, but didn’t know because of the S&T.

Cavs take Green and windup with Garland, Green, Simmons, Love, Turner. Depth would be an issue for sure, but if you’re building a lineup to maximize Simmons, that’s pretty much what you want.

Curry reunites with Carlisle. They probably start Curry, LeVert, Warren, Sabonis, and Allen, but they could also use their 2 1sts and other pieces to upgrade at SF or PG.

Philly probably starts Sexton, Brogdan, Harris, Nance, Embiid and then Nance is the first guy to sub out with Harris sliding down to PF. You don’t want Harris full-time at SF, but should be fine in spurts if he’s playing with Nance and Embiid.

Also, by making this trade the Cavs would only have around $73 mill committed to the cap in the 2023 offseason with Simmons, Garland, Green, and Okoro under contract.

Severely over valuing Ben Simmons...

 

[fncavsfan]

I mean right now in the post-season Middleton is taking 7.3 a game. So 8-10 may have been a little high, but it's significantly more than Sexton's 4.4 a game.

This is next step in Sexton's progression. He needs to shoot 2 or 3 more 3's per game in place of the 2's. Even if his % goes down to 35% that would still be a good tradeoff.

 

[adam81king]

This is next step in Sexton's progression. He needs to shoot 2 or 3 more 3's per game in place of the 2's. Even if his % goes down to 35% that would still be a good tradeoff.

Did you do the math on that? Cause shooting more 3s, at a lower percentage, and fewer 2s, means a less efficient and effective outcome...

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

Severely over valuing Ben Simmons...

How so? They aren’t going to take Love and Sexton for Simmons. That’s a pipe-dream that people are pushing, especially when they’ll have to pay Sexton next year to keep him. I think that’s something everyone is forgetting in the process. The Cavs want to trade Sexton because they don’t want to pay him and he’s a difficult roster fit.

Prince is expiring money and was pretty much worthless here. Nance is good but isn’t dependable due to injuries and I’m not sure he sticks around when his contract is up. Brogdan for Curry, Hill, and a late 1st seems pretty fair. I just don’t see an overpay when the Cavs are openly making it known they want to trade Sexton.

 

[fncavsfan]

Did you do the math on that? Cause shooting more 3s, at a lower percentage, and fewer 2s, means a less efficient and effective outcome...

So it does depend on a few things, IF he shoots less two's in theory his 2 pts % would go up-but if it stays the same the results of replacing the 2's with 3's IF the percentage goes down-nets to about the same result.

This year
18.4 shots per game
14 are two's=14.2 pts (.508)
4.4 are three's=4.8 pts (.371)
FT=5.2 ppg
TOTAL =24.2
Let's change that to
11 2 pt shots=11.176 pts (.508)
7.4 are three's=7.77 pts (.35)
FT=5.2 pts
Total is 24.146

In theory the benefit is more floor spacing also in this example.

But the math is 35% on threes= 52.5% on two's- Collin was at 50.8 on two's last year.

So IF we said he shot 35% on the additional 3 three pointers he takes--then we do net ahead slightly.

For his career he is at 38.5%-so not sure if the increase will take him down to 35%.

If he retains 37.1% on threes that he shot last year:

18.4 shots per game
14 are two's=14.2 pts (.508)
4.4 are three's=4.8 pts (.371)
FT=5.2 ppg
TOTAL =24.2
Let's change that to
11 2 pt shots=11.176 pts (.508)
7.4 are three's=8.2362 pts (.371)
FT=5.2 pts
Total is 24.6122

This is why it is easy to see him be a 25ppg++ scorer. His FT attempts will prob go up-his 2 pt % will prob go up with more floor spacing, etc etc

 

[fncavsfan]

How so? They aren’t going to take Love and Sexton for Simmons. That’s a pipe-dream that people are pushing, especially when they’ll have to pay Sexton next year to keep him. I think that’s something everyone is forgetting in the process. The Cavs want to trade Sexton because they don’t want to pay him and he’s a difficult roster fit.

Prince is expiring money and was pretty much worthless here. Nance is good but isn’t dependable due to injuries and I’m not sure he sticks around when his contract is up. Brogdan for Curry, Hill, and a late 1st seems pretty fair. I just don’t see an overpay when the Cavs are openly making it known they want to trade Sexton.

Because you can not rely on the guy to dunk the ball in a playoff game wide open.

And you want to pay that guy a super max---yeah we are not on same page here at all.

I would not trade Sexton period, but if we are I could find many many different better options than this. Most OKC fans would trade#6 for him-I would much rather have Barnes on rookie contract than Ben Simmons.

But I would actually love this trade to happen as you have it-because I could then just watch the Sixers on league pass instead of the Cavs--that Sixer team would be BIG favorites next year.

 

[adam81king]

So it does depend on a few things, IF he shoots less two's in theory his 2 pts % would go up-but if it stays the same the results of replacing the 2's with 3's IF the percentage goes down-nets to about the same result.

This year
18.4 shots per game
14 are two's=14.2 pts (.508)
4.4 are three's=4.8 pts (.371)
FT=5.2 ppg
TOTAL =24.2
Let's change that to
11 2 pt shots=11.176 pts (.508)
7.4 are three's=7.77 pts (.35)
FT=5.2 pts
Total is 24.146

In theory the benefit is more floor spacing also in this example.

But the math is 35% on threes= 52.5% on two's- Collin was at 50.8 on two's last year.

So IF we said he shot 35% on the additional 3 three pointers he takes--then we do net ahead slightly.

For his career he is at 38.5%-so not sure if the increase will take him down to 35%.

If he retains 37.1% on threes that he shot last year:

18.4 shots per game
14 are two's=14.2 pts (.508)
4.4 are three's=4.8 pts (.371)
FT=5.2 ppg
TOTAL =24.2
Let's change that to
11 2 pt shots=11.176 pts (.508)
7.4 are three's=8.2362 pts (.371)
FT=5.2 pts
Total is 24.6122

This is why it is easy to see him be a 25ppg++ scorer. His FT attempts will prob go up-his 2 pt % will prob go up with more floor spacing, etc etc

Theres a lot of hypotheticals and assumptions in your *new* examples...

I don't think it's safe to say shooting % will go up with fewer shots on 2s. I also don't think it's safe to say FTs will go up on fewer 2s; especially with the new rules benefitting defenders. Also, even *with* your Sexton-friendly hypotheticals, he doesn't come up to 25ppg++...

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

Because you can not rely on the guy to dunk the ball in a playoff game wide open.

And you want to pay that guy a super max---yeah we are not on same page here at all.

I would not trade Sexton period, but if we are I could find many many different better options than this. Most OKC fans would trade#6 for him-I would much rather have Barnes on rookie contract than Ben Simmons.

But I would actually love this trade to happen as you have it-because I could then just watch the Sixers on league pass instead of the Cavs--that Sixer team would be BIG favorites next year.

Cavs are absolutely trading Sexton. I’d prefer 6 as well, but I don’t think that’s the line of thinking for Dan or Koby. They want to make the playoffs, and trading Sexton for a rookie is unlikely to accomplish that. They want a vet, and Simmons will be one of the top names on the market and one of the few that fits the timeline of the Garland, Okoro, and our 1st this year.

I’m not even saying that’s a trade I want, but I 100% think it’s one Dan and Koby would talk themselves into. I’d take 6, but if we’re playing two rookies huge minutes along with Okoro, that team is destined to be in the lottery again next year which I don’t think Dan wants any part of.

The better trade if we could pull it off would be Sexton, Nance, #3 for Grant and #1. We take Cunnigham and Detroit probably takes Mobley or Suggs.

Cavs start Garland, Cunningham, Grant, Love, Allen. First sub is Okoro, Love goes out, Grant slides to PF.

 

[fncavsfan]

Cavs are absolutely trading Sexton. I’d prefer 6 as well, but I don’t think that’s the line of thinking for Dan or Koby. They want to make the playoffs, and trading Sexton for a rookie is unlikely to accomplish that. They want a vet, and Simmons will be one of the top names on the market and one of the few that fits the timeline of the Garland, Okoro, and our 1st this year.

I’m not even saying that’s a trade I want, but I 100% think it’s one Dan and Koby would talk themselves into. I’d take 6, but if we’re playing two rookies huge minutes along with Okoro, that team is destined to be in the lottery again next year which I don’t think Dan wants any part of.

The better trade if we could pull it off would be Sexton, Nance, #3 for Grant and #1. We take Cunnigham and Detroit probably takes Mobley or Suggs.

Cavs start Garland, Cunningham, Grant, Love, Allen. First sub is Okoro, Love goes out, Grant slides to PF.

We will see. The Pistons deal is better than Simmons for sure.

I have coached basketball for about 15 yrs now-youth all the way through HS AAU ball (I have 3 boys-some years I coached 3 teams at same time). Height means way less than people think. It is SPEED that is the best commodity on the floor. I can't tell you how many HS basketball teams I have watched that tried to get the 6'6" terrible kid on the court because he was tall- over much much better 6'2" kids. The other thing about coaching you learn is the longer a group played together the better they got period. I took a 5th grade group that had 6 rec players on it and we won 20% of our AAU games . By 7th grade, same group-80% wins. Why? They learned the system, their teammates and just knew how to play together. We were still way undersized and not as athletic as most of the teams we played. Didn't matter. We would pick apart defenses just because the kids knew where to be.

One reason I love Sexton's game is that most of what he does is with purpose--he doesnt just stand in a spot playing with the ball-he goes and tries to get to his spots. You know how many kids try to be Kyrie with their handles--that shit only works for the very very very best ball handlers-and even Kyrie at times dribbles himself to no where.

If we do trade Sexton it will come back to haunt us. Let's see what happens.

 

[BodegaBayCav]

Cavs are absolutely trading Sexton. I’d prefer 6 as well, but I don’t think that’s the line of thinking for Dan or Koby. They want to make the playoffs, and trading Sexton for a rookie is unlikely to accomplish that. They want a vet, and Simmons will be one of the top names on the market and one of the few that fits the timeline of the Garland, Okoro, and our 1st this year.

I’m not even saying that’s a trade I want, but I 100% think it’s one Dan and Koby would talk themselves into. I’d take 6, but if we’re playing two rookies huge minutes along with Okoro, that team is destined to be in the lottery again next year which I don’t think Dan wants any part of.

The better trade if we could pull it off would be Sexton, Nance, #3 for Grant and #1. We take Cunnigham and Detroit probably takes Mobley or Suggs.

Cavs start Garland, Cunningham, Grant, Love, Allen. First sub is Okoro, Love goes out, Grant slides to PF.

I totally agree with your Detroit trade for the Cavs but I doubt that Detroit would do it. Maybe, if they could move Nance for a future first.

 

[dark2332]

Based on the information last night provided by Ben that the Mavericks have been and continue to be interested in Collin Sexton, it’s difficult to see a trade fit initially. They’ve sent away so many future firsts and don’t have any promising young players on rookie deals outside of their cornerstone. Despite this, Sexton and Luka clearly would be a good offensive pairing that allows Sexton to be aggressive and work as a secondary facilitator without having to guard 2’s and 3’s consistently.

I still consider Porzingis a positive asset at 25 years of age, but the Dallas defense with him on the floor is just deplorable as they don’t really have the athletes to switch and account for him. I believe they are ready to move on—he needs a fresh start. However, I don’t necessarily find him the best fit in Cleveland either.

Enter a third team, Golden State, with veterans trying to make runs deep in the playoffs for a few final times if they can keep their roster healthy. Having the 7th and 14th pick, they have the luxury to deal one of them.

Dallas receives:

PF - Kevin Love
SG - Collin Sexton

Golden State receives:

C/PF - Kristaps Porzingis
F - Dorian Finney-Smith

Cleveland Receives:

SF - Andrew Wiggins
C - Kevin Looney
2021 1st round pick - #7 overall - from GS via MIN

Why for us? Well, despite taking back Wiggins’ bad contract, he at least can give minutes at the wing—which we sorely lack. His deal runs for the next two years, like Love’s deal, but at this point, it’s time to get off Kevin Love with his tantrums starting to come to a head.

We take a backup center in Looney who is signed to a reasonable deal, and get the #7 pick rather than having to pay Sexton long term.

There are plenty of players we like at #7.

Golden State gets a guy in Porzingis who pairs well with Draymond Green, and they keep Wiseman in that front court rotation. Finley-Smith gives much needed versatility at the forward spot, and allay Thompson is coming back at the 2.

Steph, Klay, Finney-Smith, Draymond, Porzingis gives them a chance to compete in the West the next few years, while Wiseman continues to develop.

For Dallas, they get a 22 year old scoring guard who averages 25 ppg that can be counted on to share that onus with Luka. Sexton guards opposing PG’s, which he’s shown an improved ability to do, and Luka handles primary facilitation duties. If Love is healthy and motivated following his Team USA rejuvenation, they can also get some much needed floor spacing out of him in Dallas.

 

[Derek]

Theres a lot of hypotheticals and assumptions in your *new* examples...

I don't think it's safe to say shooting % will go up with fewer shots on 2s. I also don't think it's safe to say FTs will go up on fewer 2s; especially with the new rules benefitting defenders. Also, even *with* your Sexton-friendly hypotheticals, he doesn't come up to 25ppg++...

Ideally, the 2's that get cut out are the ones that aren't at the rim.

According to bball-ref, Sexton shot the following percentages from the following ranges last year:
4.6 attempts per game from 3-10 feet - 45.5%
3.0 attempts per game from 10-16 feet - 48.3%
1.4 attempts per game from 16-3PT - 32.9%

Those shots accounted for almost half of his attempts on the season, and those are also the attempts where you're far less likely to draw fouls.

If he could even just take those 1.4 attempts from 16-3PT and move them back behind the arc, you'd see the following changes:
2PT% - 50.8% to 52.7%
3PT% - 37.1% to 34.8% (assuming he hits just 30% of those 1.4 attempts)
eFG% - 51.9% to 52.6%

It's a minuscule increase in efficiency, but I also think it's reasonable to think he'd shoot better on 3's than this projection suggests.