Jarrett Allen: Nice Head of Hair

[Man Called X]

If you all want to discount the numbers in front of you, that's completely fair. It involves ignoring the numbers, though.

Jarrett Allen is 22yrs old and puts up numbers that compare to the reigning DPoY, despite not playing more than 20 minutes per game in his career. He was traded to a new team that was tanking, during a global pandemic, got a concussion and struggled a bit. Every other season, and even some stats within the new stop, were continued improvements on his career trajectory. Don't also forget that Allen is a good FT shooter so he isn't a liability at the line at the end of games like Capella.

His shooting percentages raised as he stopped shooting from further than 3 feet from the basket. When he started being asked to do it again in Cleveland, his numbers started going back down.

There's literally nothing in Allen's game that resembles the reigning DPoY Greek Freak. If you're saying his numbers are comparable to Gobert, that's the case of not actually watching what all Gobert does on the floor and blindingly looking at raw numbers.

 

[foucault87]

I don't see why Allen won't be able to extend his range. He has a nice touch and hits a good rate of his FTs. As it is, I dont view him as a hyperswitchable center (like AD) or a one man top 10 defense (Gobert). I think he is closer (but worse than) to Capela or Nurk where he is a solid starting center, maybe a top 10 center on a good day who can sometimes win 1v1 matchups with other better centers. Play him 24-28 mpg in the regular season. Then come playoff time his playing time would reduce and be more situational depending on matchup as you go to a smaller lineup (Nance at center with our current roster). I think 16-18m is fair value for that skillset. A top 15-20 player at his position. If someone comes out and offers the 4/90 max that can be offered, I look to SnT him.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I don't see why Allen won't be able to extend his range.

Well, there's nothing that says he won't. I just don't see any evidence that he actually will.

 

[inliner311]

Well, there's nothing that says he won't. I just don't see any evidence that he actually will.

Guys that put in the work to extend their range tend to have motivation to do it. Nance needed to extend his range to try to keep himself healthy and so he could transition to playing PF. Brook Lopez added 3pt range to his game because he went from being paid 22 million to 3 million.

If Allen was self motivated to just keep building out his game, we most likely would see progress in his stats over the years.

If they want to motivate him, I think they need to add incentives to his contract.

 

[adam81king]

His shooting percentages raised as he stopped shooting from further than 3 feet from the basket. When he started being asked to do it again in Cleveland, his numbers started going back down.

There's literally nothing in Allen's game that resembles the reigning DPoY Greek Freak. If you're saying his numbers are comparable to Gobert, that's the case of not actually watching what all Gobert does on the floor and blindingly looking at raw numbers.

Rudy Gobert is the DPoY, and I never mentioned Giannis.

Considering the entire basis of the conversation was "per 36 stats," I'm not sure why looking at raw numbers is wrong.

But, continue to assume a 22yr old big man won't get better with age, experience and commitment to his game.

 

[buzzdog]

It's par for the course that Cavs fans default to always expecting the worst from the players we already have on the roster. The grass is always greener and our players are looked down on, with expectations being more pessimistic than optimistic or even realistic. What fans of other teams automatically assume that players on their roster who are in their early 20's have already maxed out as NBA players? GMAFB.

 

[mds]

I think most fans are equally irrational.

 

[Man Called X]

It's par for the course that Cavs fans default to always expecting the worst from the players we already have on the roster. The grass is always greener and our players are looked down on, with expectations being more pessimistic than optimistic or even realistic. What fans of other teams automatically assume that players on their roster who are in their early 20's have already maxed out as NBA players? GMAFB.

And yet, every end of the bench scrub that rotates through the roster is treated like he's going to be the next diamond in the rough late bloomer that becomes an all star.

The longer you're in the league, the more your ceiling shrinks. Every year that ceiling gets lower and lower. Why is it unreasonable to project a guy who's had 4 years of solid production that's been the same whether it's 20 mpg or 30 mpg to not have the highest ceiling any longer?

 

[bs80]

What I'm looking at, is seeing him play 20 mpg, 26 mpg, 30 mpg, and his per 36 numbers have stayed relatively flat.

What I would expect to see happening is as he's becoming a better player for there to be some variance in his per 36 numbers. He's scoring at the same rate, rebounding at the same rate, basically looking like the same player he's been. I don't say that he's a bad player, but I think his development has plateaued and he is what he is.

I'm not overpaying on the idea that he some untapped potential. The only place I can really find any movement is in his ability to create for himself. And part of me argues that was based more on Cleveland's shitty offense than him becoming a low post threat.

While I see your point, I think that the ability to even sustain his per 36 numbers as his playing time increases is improvement in and of itself.

Jarrett Allen (pts reb / ast / stl / blk / fg% per 36 minutes over the first four years of his career):
14.7 / 9.7 / 1.2 / 0.7 / 2.2 / .589 on 20.0 mpg
15.0 / 11.5 / 1.9 / 0.7 / 2.1 / .590 on 26.2 mpg
15.1 / 13.0 / 2.1 / 0.8 / 1.8 / .649 on 26.5 mpg
15.6 / 12.2 / 2.0 / 0.6 / 1.7 / .618 on 29.6 mpg (w/ BRK: 15.1 / 14.1 / 2.3 / 0.8 / 2.1 / .677 on 26.7 mpg, w/ CLE: 15.7 / 11.8 / 2.0 / 0.6 / 1.7 / .609 on 30.3 mpg)

Compare these to the per 36 numbers over the first four years of the top seven guys on the list of highest center salaries posted by LeeBuckeye a few pages back and draw your own conclusions on how much a young player's per 36 numbers should be improving over the first four years in the league.

Gobert:
8.6 / 12.9 / 0.6 / 0.7 / 3.4 / .486 on 9.6 mpg
11.4 / 12.9 / 1.8 / 1.1 / 3.2 / .604 on 26.3 mpg
10.4 / 12.4 / 1.7 / 0.8 / 2.5 / .559 on 31.7 mpg
14.9 / 13.6 / 1.3 / 0.6 / 2.8 / .661 on 33.9 mpg

KAT:
20.6 / 16.5 / 3.1 / 1.1 / 2.6 / .542 on 32.0 mpg
24.5 / 16.9 / 3.7 / 0.9 / 1.7 / .542 on 37.0 mpg
21.5 / 17.3 / 3.4 / 1.1 / 2.0 / .545 on 35.6 mpg
26.6 / 18.0 / 4.9 / 1.3 / 2.4 / .518 on 33.1 mpg

Embiid:
28.7 / 11.1 / 3.0 / 1.2 / 3.5 / .466 on 25.4 mpg
27.2 / 13.0 / 3.7 / 0.8 / 2.1 / .483 on 30.3 mpg
29.4 / 14.6 / 3.9 / 0.8 / 2.0 / .484 on 33.7 mpg
28.0 / 14.2 / 3.6 / 1.1 / 1.6 / .477 on 29.5 mpg

Jokic:
16.5 / 11.6 / 3.9 / 1.6 / 1.0 / .512 on 21.7 mpg
21.6 / 12.7 / 6.3 / 1.1 / 1.0 / .578 on 27.9 mpg
20.4 / 11.8 / 6.7 / 1.3 / 0.9 / .499 on 32.6 mpg
23.1 / 12.4 / 8.3 / 1.6 / 0.8 / .511 on 31.3 mpg

Vucevic:
12.5 / 10.9 / 1.4 / 0.9 / 1.5 / .450 on 15.9 mpg
14.2 / 12.9 / 2.0 / 0.9 / 1.1 / .519 on 33.2 mpg
16.1 / 12.4 / 2.1 / 1.2 / 0.9 / .507 on 31.8 mpg
20.3 / 11.5 / 2.1 / 0.8 / 0.8 / .523 on 34.2 mpg

Turner:
16.3 / 8.7 / 1.1 / 0.7 / 2.3 / .498 on 22.8 mpg
16.6 / 8.3 / 1.5 / 1.0 / 2.4 / .511 on 31.4 mpg
16.2 / 8.2 / 1.7 / 0.7 / 2.3 / .479 on 28.2 mpg
16.7 / 9.0 / 2.0 / 1.0 / 3.4 / .487 on 28.6 mpg

Capela:
12.8 / 14.4 / 0.8 / 0.4 / 3.6 / .483 on 7.5 mpg
13.3 / 12.1 / 1.2 / 1.4 / 2.3 / .582 on 19.1 mpg
19.0 / 12.2 / 1.5 / 0.8 / 1.8 / .643 on 23.9 mpg
18.2 / 14.2 / 1.2 / 1.0 / 2.4 / .652 on 27.5 mpg

Not trying to be argumentative, just wanted to post these and see if you still see things the same way. I can see rational arguments to be made on both sides, but hopefully these numbers, which I tried not to cherry-pick to fit one side or the other, can help everyone form more meaningful opinions.

 

[Man Called X]

While I see your point, I think that the ability to even sustain his per 36 numbers as his playing time increases is improvement in and of itself.

Jarrett Allen (pts reb / ast / stl / blk / fg% per 36 minutes over the first four years of his career):
14.7 / 9.7 / 1.2 / 0.7 / 2.2 / .589 on 20.0 mpg
15.0 / 11.5 / 1.9 / 0.7 / 2.1 / .590 on 26.2 mpg
15.1 / 13.0 / 2.1 / 0.8 / 1.8 / .649 on 26.5 mpg
15.6 / 12.2 / 2.0 / 0.6 / 1.7 / .618 on 29.6 mpg (w/ BRK: 15.1 / 14.1 / 2.3 / 0.8 / 2.1 / .677 on 26.7 mpg, w/ CLE: 15.7 / 11.8 / 2.0 / 0.6 / 1.7 / .609 on 30.3 mpg)

Compare these to the per 36 numbers over the first four years of the top seven guys on the list of highest center salaries posted by LeeBuckeye a few pages back and draw your own conclusions on how much a young player's per 36 numbers should be improving over the first four years in the league.

Gobert:
8.6 / 12.9 / 0.6 / 0.7 / 3.4 / .486 on 9.6 mpg
11.4 / 12.9 / 1.8 / 1.1 / 3.2 / .604 on 26.3 mpg
10.4 / 12.4 / 1.7 / 0.8 / 2.5 / .559 on 31.7 mpg
14.9 / 13.6 / 1.3 / 0.6 / 2.8 / .661 on 33.9 mpg

KAT:
20.6 / 16.5 / 3.1 / 1.1 / 2.6 / .542 on 32.0 mpg
24.5 / 16.9 / 3.7 / 0.9 / 1.7 / .542 on 37.0 mpg
21.5 / 17.3 / 3.4 / 1.1 / 2.0 / .545 on 35.6 mpg
26.6 / 18.0 / 4.9 / 1.3 / 2.4 / .518 on 33.1 mpg

Embiid:
28.7 / 11.1 / 3.0 / 1.2 / 3.5 / .466 on 25.4 mpg
27.2 / 13.0 / 3.7 / 0.8 / 2.1 / .483 on 30.3 mpg
29.4 / 14.6 / 3.9 / 0.8 / 2.0 / .484 on 33.7 mpg
28.0 / 14.2 / 3.6 / 1.1 / 1.6 / .477 on 29.5 mpg

Jokic:
16.5 / 11.6 / 3.9 / 1.6 / 1.0 / .512 on 21.7 mpg
21.6 / 12.7 / 6.3 / 1.1 / 1.0 / .578 on 27.9 mpg
20.4 / 11.8 / 6.7 / 1.3 / 0.9 / .499 on 32.6 mpg
23.1 / 12.4 / 8.3 / 1.6 / 0.8 / .511 on 31.3 mpg

Vucevic:
12.5 / 10.9 / 1.4 / 0.9 / 1.5 / .450 on 15.9 mpg
14.2 / 12.9 / 2.0 / 0.9 / 1.1 / .519 on 33.2 mpg
16.1 / 12.4 / 2.1 / 1.2 / 0.9 / .507 on 31.8 mpg
20.3 / 11.5 / 2.1 / 0.8 / 0.8 / .523 on 34.2 mpg

Turner:
16.3 / 8.7 / 1.1 / 0.7 / 2.3 / .498 on 22.8 mpg
16.6 / 8.3 / 1.5 / 1.0 / 2.4 / .511 on 31.4 mpg
16.2 / 8.2 / 1.7 / 0.7 / 2.3 / .479 on 28.2 mpg
16.7 / 9.0 / 2.0 / 1.0 / 3.4 / .487 on 28.6 mpg

Capela:
12.8 / 14.4 / 0.8 / 0.4 / 3.6 / .483 on 7.5 mpg
13.3 / 12.1 / 1.2 / 1.4 / 2.3 / .582 on 19.1 mpg
19.0 / 12.2 / 1.5 / 0.8 / 1.8 / .643 on 23.9 mpg
18.2 / 14.2 / 1.2 / 1.0 / 2.4 / .652 on 27.5 mpg

Not trying to be argumentative, just wanted to post these and see if you still see things the same way. I can see rational arguments to be made on both sides, but hopefully these numbers, which I tried not to cherry-pick to fit one side or the other, can help everyone form more meaningful opinions.

I'll happily argue that Vuc improved offensively, still atrocious on defense. Myles Turner is another guy who plateaued.

I just don't feel he has an very high ceiling. Eyeball test and the stats lead me a similar conclusion.

My argument has never been that Allen was a bad player. Just that spending on his upside is a mistake as I think the upside was realized very quickly.

 

[bs80]

I'll happily argue that Vuc improved offensively, still atrocious on defense. Myles Turner is another guy who plateaued.

I just don't feel he has an very high ceiling. Eyeball test and the stats lead me a similar conclusion.

My argument has never been that Allen was a bad player. Just that spending on his upside is a mistake as I think the upside was realized very quickly.

Fair point, and I never did think that you were arguing that Allen was a bad player. I just wanted to put those numbers out there for context. Going into the exercise, I was actually expecting to see more plateaus than ended up being the case. For our sake, let's hope that other GMs share your opinion so we won't have to overpay for him, and then he ends up breaking out in a big way next season.

 

[sailfish]

 

[buzzdog]

One thing about player evaluations, we'll find out which guesses... err, opinions, are closer to being accurate in the next year or 2. If Allen ends up signing here or someplace else for $16-17 mil, then that's his market value. If it's more it's more.

 

[bs80]

One thing about player evaluations, we'll find out which guesses... err, opinions, are closer to being accurate in the next year or 2. If Allen ends up signing here or someplace else for $16-17 mil, then that's his market value. If it's more it's more.

Yup, market value is what it is. I just really hope that our FO has been doing its due diligence and its homework, has mapped out several scenarios for the future, come up with a number in their minds already, and extract maximum value, whether it be extending him, negotiating a sign-and-trade, or in the worst case, letting him walk as opposed to matching a stupid offer sheet. Shit, I can't be the only one that's wondered what DePodesta could do for the Cavs, right??

 

[kriegs]

Cleveland Cavaliers


There’s mutual interest between center Jarrett Allen and the Cavaliers on a new deal, but the Toronto Raptors are expected to be among the strong suitors for the restricted free agent, according to sources. Toronto has attempted to trade for Allen in the past, sources said. The Nets traded Allen as part of the four-team blockbuster James Harden trade. In 51 games for the Cavaliers, Allen, 23, averaged 13.2 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks.

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