Why the Guardians will win over 100 games this year

[sportscoach]

From FanGraphs:

Controlling the running game will be far more important in 2023 than it’s been in decades, thanks to a new rule that limits the number of pickoff throws pitchers can make. Stolen base attempts exploded and success rate climbed when various minor leagues instituted versions of the same rule; you can expect more steals, particularly from elite-speed types, in the big leagues next year.

The Guardians are one of the "elite-speed types"; they tied for first in the "speed" category (FanGraphs) and were 3rd in stolen bases.

The limited number of throws to 1B will be a huge mistake... I'm waiting for the rule that has to be changed cause out changes the game too much and cause more throws in previous years...

 

[CDAV45]

63-99

@The Oi

 

[CDAV45]

Its quite early to be prognosticating, because we don't yet know what our roster will be, or the rosters of Chicago and Minnesota.

A big acquisition by any could make a considerable difference.

And those 24 less games within the division will be replaced in part by games vs Atlanta, Philly, the Mets, Washington, Miami, St Louis, Milwaukee, the Cubs, and Pittsburgh.

The biggest concern, more than number of wins overall, is how we stack up vs the teams in the AL Central...and so far, so good.

As for this moment in time, on paper our roster now is better than our basic roster we played with last year, assuming Hedges returns.

I would caution about any expectations for Morris, esp as a rotation piece.

He has a history of health problems...pitched 45 innings last year, 61 in 2021, no competitive innings in 2020, and 89 innings in 2019. He has less than 200 IP in his pro career. Thats not the foundation for a workload as a SP over 162 games.

This^

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The limited number of throws to 1B will be a huge mistake... I'm waiting for the rule that has to be changed cause out changes the game too much and cause more throws in previous years...

I think it could be great for the game. In your opinion, what percentage of throws to first were legitimate attempts to pick off the runner? I'm thinking maybe 20%, if that. In most cases the ball is just lobbed over to buy time or try to discourage too big a leadoff.

When a team wants to make a pitching change but needs more time they have the pitcher throw over 3-4 times, being careful not to make a throwing error. That's what is being eliminated by the new rule.

If runners take too big a lead they'll get picked off. If not, there won't be a throw. Pitchers will be forced to pitch or try a legitimate pickoff - no more waste throws.

If, after two unsuccessful throws the runner takes a huge lead, he'll get picked off. The worst that could happen is the pickoff fails and the runner gets second base. He would have stole second anyway with a huge lead.

So we'll see what happens, but I think this rule will eliminate hundreds of waste throws without affecting the game dramatically except that runners may take a slightly longer lead and we'll see more stolen base attempts, which means more action.

A secondary effect will be fewer walks. If there's a fast runner at-bat and bases are easier to steal then pitchers will be less likely to walk him. Pitchers will have to attack the hitters and try to get them out knowing a walk probably means he'll be in scoring position a couple of pitches later. So...less nibbling and more aggressive pitching, meaning fewer balls out of the zone, shorter at-bats, fewer walks, and more action.

 

[The Oi]

63-99

@The Oi

 

[CATS44]

In 2022 we were 34-34 vs .500 or better teams.....58-36 vs losing teams (62%).

In 2023 we play 76 games vs teams that were .500 or better. We play 86 that were below 500.

Statistically, the 2022 Guardians would have won 91 games against the upcoming schedule. Spread over 162 games, the degree of difficulty doesn't change that much.

So, when I begin looking at our record next year, I begin with the theory that we ended with a 91 win team for next year..and add or subtract from there.

Other teams, of course, add or subtract, too...and that makes a difference. But we are talking about a finite number of games, 162 for everybody. If the Yankees improve by two games, somebody that we play has to get worse by two more games.

Next, I look at health, plus the likelihood of health, because health and depth are probably the biggest factors in how a team will perform over 162 games.

We got 137 starts out of our scheduled rotation last year. We only got 108 out of those guys in 2021. Those 29 additional starts...not the improved offense and defense...is the biggest factor in 12 additional wins.

Adding Bell is a big improvement to our offense. Losing Bieber, TMac, or Quantrill for a third of a season more than wipes that out. More than almost any other team, our success over 162 games is dependent upon our rotation...both the number of IP and the quality of those innings.

So, with the addition of Bell, I'm gonna start at 92 wins, and watch what every team does over the next three and a half months before making any definitive prediction.

But I will say two things...

So far, our two main rivals haven't gotten better, and probably worse.

For the next several years, Chicagos success is dependent upon several players who have long histories of not being able to stay on the field...and there is no indication that that will change.

Players have track records. Once they have established themselves, they don't usually veer too much from those track records. Health is as much of a track record as K and BB rates.

 

[CATS44]

I hadnt thought of all the non competitive throws to first base. Teams have used them for years to slow down a running game and to stall.

Probably not in the box score, but it will change the game some, and make them shorter.

I am worried that new rules will turn the running game into a travesty and force a reversal. Base stealing is exciting, but only if is competitive. If the new rules allow base runners to pretty much swipe bases at will, that's not a good thing.

I taught baseball to kids for thirty years. Where I live, there were two main nationally affiliated leagues...Little League and Hot Stove.

I refused to have anything to do with Hot Stove, because it allowed unfettered base stealing...and there is no way to teach 9/10 yr old pitchers and catchers how to hold base runners, unless you spend your time on nothing else. Games were nothing but unchallenged track meets.

I have my doubts that this won't happen in MLB. We could see success rates as high as 90%. Its fine to have a few guys who swipe 50 bases. Its not fine to have two on every team.

There is one thing that could change...the relative value between contact and power. Theres not a whole lot of difference between a double and a single+stolen base.

Oscar hits 40 doubles. Straw ends up on second 40 times via SB.

 

[macbdog]

Any truth to the rumor I just read on Twitter that the Guardians are considering adding a racing stripe to their jerseys, since they are now a team of speed merchants?

 

[CDAV45]

I seriously doubt this team wins close to 100 games but anything is possible. We've improved our lineup for sure, but how much is to be determined and it's not even close to Chicago's on paper. On paper, their rotation is better too. What I'll be waiting and watching for is if they can stay healthy and history isn't on their side for that. Should they stay healthy, they will bludgeon us to death and run away with this division.

The value between contact and power isn't going to change. In truthfulness, the value of power will increase if the focus on contact takes precedent around the league. That won't happen with any team other than the ones that can't afford to sign it though.

How much have KC and Detroit improved? KC is loaded with young talent and if their pitching continues to get better then they will no longer be a pushover. I think Detroit is yrs away and I'm not really concerned with them at all.

The Twins have some potential, but the loss of Correa will be difficult to replace. I'll be keeping a close eye on what they do to replace him. Their rotation has some potential and depth as well. The wildcard in that rotation will be Paddack. If they get him right he'll be a handful and a good addition.

If I had to guess right now I'd go with 88-90 wins and that will depend on the other 3 in the division minus Detroit. We have quite a bit of time left in the offseason so a lot can change between now and the start of the 23 season. So subject to change should be attached to any prediction.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I seriously doubt this team wins close to 100 games but anything is possible. We've improved our lineup for sure, but how much is to be determined and it's not even close to Chicago's on paper. On paper, their rotation is better too. What I'll be waiting and watching for is if they can stay healthy and history isn't on their side for that. Should they stay healthy, they will bludgeon us to death and run away with this division....

If I had to guess right now I'd go with 88-90 wins and that will depend on the other 3 in the division minus Detroit. We have quite a bit of time left in the offseason so a lot can change between now and the start of the 23 season. So subject to change should be attached to any prediction.

The Guardians only play the White Sox 13 times next year so how much the Sox improved shouldn't have too much effect on whether the G's win 100.

I'm looking at the G's as a 99-win team last year because that was their winning percentage after starting 19-24. Why discount the first 43 games? Because the first part of last season we had Straw leading off, Franmil hitting cleanup, Oscar in the minors, Karinchak injured, Shaw as the setup guy, and Civale pitching like crap. No wonder we were under .500.

Once those problems were resolved, and they were, the Guardians finished 73-46, which projects to 99-wins over a full season. That's where the G's will start in April, only with the additions of Bell and Zunino. Not to mention Jose not playing with a broken hand from June on.

I'm optimistic that will a full spring training Civale will be ready to go in April and not get hurt three separate times next year. I'm optimistic Plesac will not suffer a third self-inflicted injury and if he does, Cody Morris will fill in more than adequately and we won't have guys like Pilkington, Gaddis, McCarty, and Curry starting 17 games. I'm also optimistic either Freeman or Arias will give us more production at UIF than Owen Miller and Ernie Clement.

I also posted how the rule changes with regard to the shift and the shorter base paths will help the G's more than all but about three other teams based on the Guardians' high contact rates, team speed, and prevalence of left-handed pull hitters (the Sox are more right-handed heavy).

I can't see how anybody can predict this team will be worse than last year.

 

[CDAV45]

The Guardians only play the White Sox 13 times next year so how much the Sox improved shouldn't have too much effect on whether the G's win 100.

I'm looking at the G's as a 99-win team last year because that was their winning percentage after starting 19-24. Why discount the first 43 games? Because the first part of last season we had Straw leading off, Franmil hitting cleanup, Oscar in the minors, Karinchak injured, Shaw as the setup guy, and Civale pitching like crap. No wonder we were under .500.

Once those problems were resolved, and they were, the Guardians finished 73-46, which projects to 99-wins over a full season. That's where the G's will start in April, only with the additions of Bell and Zunino. Not to mention Jose not playing with a broken hand from June on.

I'm optimistic that will a full spring training Civale will be ready to go in April and not get hurt three separate times next year. I'm optimistic Plesac will not suffer a third self-inflicted injury and if he does, Cody Morris will fill in more than adequately and we won't have guys like Pilkington, Gaddis, McCarty, and Curry starting 17 games. I'm also optimistic either Freeman or Arias will give up more production at UIF than Owen Miller and Ernie Clement.

I also posted how the rule changes with regard to the shift and the shorter base paths will help the G's more than all but about three other teams based on the Guardians' high contact rates, team speed, and prevalence of left-handed pull hitters (the Sox are more right-handed heavy).

I can't see how anybody can predict this team will be worse than last year.

It's not all about this team. It's what others look like as well. If Chicago can stay healthy(huge if) then they will likely win the division. KC is getting better and their young players have a season of experience now. The Twins always put together a good team and I highly doubt they're done.

Yes, we improved after the first 43 games last season, but there were circumstances that magnified those improvements outside of the Guardians' control. I don't think our chances of winning the division are less than they were at the beginning of last season. I just doubt so many things that are out of our control fall our way. If they do then we'll run away with the division again and win 90+ games. If they don't then I'm sticking with my 88-90 wins. I'll also have a better idea when everyone's roster is set.

 

[petes999]

For those who think we can get 100 wins, you should start betting on the WS ... seen two recent odds, and we are consistently at 16th/17th spot around +3300 to +3500 ... and behind White Sox ... A bit of big city bias (and money being laid down) but still no love with a long way to go. I can see better WS odds this year if we can get one or two of our big 3 to do a Jaret Wright/1997 year/post-season (just hope for a better career).

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

It's not all about this team. It's what others look like as well. If Chicago can stay healthy(huge if) then they will likely win the division. KC is getting better and their young players have a season of experience now. The Twins always put together a good team and I highly doubt they're done.

Yes, we improved after the first 43 games last season, but there were circumstances that magnified those improvements outside of the Guardians' control. I don't think our chances of winning the division are less than they were at the beginning of last season. I just doubt so many things that are out of our control fall our way. If they do then we'll run away with the division again and win 90+ games. If they don't then I'm sticking with my 88-90 wins. I'll also have a better idea when everyone's roster is set.

It looks to me like the White Sox made a couple of lateral moves.

They signed Andrew Benintendi (.304/.772) and lost Jose Abreu (.304/824).

They signed Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33) and lost Johnny Cueto (8-10, 3.35).

They also lost Elvis Andrus (.271/.773 in 43 games after coming over in a trade) and Danny Mendick (.289/.786 in 31 games).

It looks to me like they haven't gotten better on paper, but certainly the potential for improvement is there if they can keep their main guys healthy. Luis Robert (98 games), Tim Anderson (79 games), Leury Garcia (97 games), and Eloy Jimenez (84 games) all missed huge chunks of the season. Lance Lynn only started 21 games.

If all or most of these guys stay healthy all year then the Sox definitely could win the division. But the Guardians play 149 games against teams other than the White Sox and I can easily see them being a better team than last year's team that was a 99-win team once they got their batting order and relief pitching squared away.

The Guardians added Bell and Zunino; they lost Shaw, Miller, Hedges, and Maile. Jose Ramirez hopefully won't play two-thirds of the season with a broken hand that required surgery and curtailed his power. The rules changes will help their offense both in terms of a higher team OBP and more stolen bases. That's a net plus IMO.

The Sox losses may be greater than their gains or at best it's a wash. And since left-handed pull hitters are helped more than right-handers by the elimination of a shift, the G's will benefit more than the Sox with Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez being right-handed.

The G's match up well against the Sox because we have excellent right-handed starters and the Sox have been right-hand dominant at the plate, although swapping Abreu for Benintendi gives them better balance.

 

[CATS44]

I dont see Chicago as positively as some posters.

Our rotation is at least as good as theirs...a half run in ERA better last year. Swapping out Cuetos 2022 for Clev doesn't make them better. More starts from Lynn will help.

Chicagos pen isn't close to ours....a full run in ERA worse last season.

Benintendi will improve their outfield defense immensely, but in no way compares to Abreu offensively. Meanwhile, we replaced Miller/Naylor vs lefties with Bell, a big increase in production.

We scored more runs than Chicago last year and our position players were worth 6 fWAR more. Benintendi-Abreu wouldn't make up that difference, even without the addition of Bell.

Chicagos entire hope is that two core position players and two members of their rotation do something that none of them have done in years....make it thru an entire season.

They have no SP depth. Their 6th-9th SPs are incredibly bad. If both AAA pitching staffs were combined, not one Chicago pitcher would make the Columbus rotation. If Chicagos kids were in the Cleveland system, I dont think any of them would be on our 40 man.

We ran them out of the ball park last year. With the new rules, we will do it again...and so will a lot of others.

They were 4th worst in SBs allowed, 9th in stopping SBs, worst in passed balls, second worst in wild pitches. None of those problems have been addressed, and they take on more importance next season.

 

[PIP]

Chicago also has a first time manager with no track record of success.