Why the Guardians will win over 100 games this year

[mopete12]

Chicago also has a first time manager with no track record of success.

Basically a guaranteed upgrade to LaRussa though

 

[Criznit]

For those who think we can get 100 wins, you should start betting on the WS ... seen two recent odds, and we are consistently at 16th/17th spot around +3300 to +3500 ... and behind White Sox ... A bit of big city bias (and money being laid down) but still no love with a long way to go. I can see better WS odds this year if we can get one or two of our big 3 to do a Jaret Wright/1997 year/post-season (just hope for a better career).

I have already made a couple Guardian bets. Getting no love IMO.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Athletic's beat writer for the White Sox has this assessment of their off-season so far:

Assessing the roster moves of the past two months comes down to two gambits. The White Sox are hoping that offloading defensive responsibilities from Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn, and adding Andrew Benintendi in left field, will offset losing one of the best hitters in franchise history, José Abreu. Johnny Cueto’s 2022 excellence was a bit of a surprise and it’s natural to question whether the free-agent righty can pull it off again. But the Sox are banking on Lance Lynn and Michael Kopech being healthy, and bounce-back years from Lucas Giolito and Mike Clevinger, to cancel out Cueto’s departure.

It could definitely work. It is eminently understandable why they did what they did. But it’s not a clear upgrade of last season’s roster, which was certainly seen as strong on paper in April.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Athletic's Guardians beat writer had this:

On paper, better, because Josh Bell is a great fit and Mike Zunino can’t really be a downgrade behind the plate. But, that’s not how any of this works. So much of the Guardians’ 2023 outlook hinges on young players either duplicating their first bit of major-league success or other young players stepping in to cover for anyone who regresses. Those in the organization regularly point out “development isn’t linear,” so although the roster is in good shape and the Guardians possess a ton of depth across the board, there remains a wide range of potential individual outcomes.

He didn't mention that Jose Ramirez played two-thirds of the season with a broken bone in his hand that took away a lot of his power from the left side. I also expect the elimination of the shift will help left-handed pull hitters like Josh Naylor, Jose, and Bell.

But he's right to wonder if Oscar Gonzalez or Steven Kwan will regress in their second seasons. But Kwan started from Opening Day and was remarkably consistent all season. It's not like he came up in August and had a couple of hot months.

But it seems to me like some young pitchers took big steps in their second or third seasons; McKenzie, Hentges, Karinchak, Stephan, Morgan, and Sandlin. I don't see them as candidates for regression.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

More from the White Sox writer on their chances of winning the division:

There’s not really a switch in personnel to point to explain why the White Sox will be able to stop the rest of the division from running all over them again. They’re dependent on a lot of guys who haven’t been healthy or sharp defensively recently to be those things, after overhauling the coaching staff and enhancing the training staff. This roster was good enough to be the division favorite last season, but then the White Sox wildly underperformed. If they don’t wildly underperform again, they should have a shot.

And the Twins:

Everything to do with the Twins’ chances in 2023 will depend on how healthy they can be. They were so well-positioned to win the division if Correa had rejoined them. They have starting pitching depth and a solid one through five for the first time in a few seasons, even if it depends on Kenta Maeda coming back healthy from Tommy John surgery. They like how their bullpen looks and expect Jorge López will be much more settled in this time around.

With Correa and team health, they would have had a formidable lineup. They still could. Right now they don’t have all the pieces. But let’s see what they do the rest of the offseason. They still have work to do, and time to do it.

 

[CDAV45]

Good stuff. Thanks Wham!

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Here are the reasons why the Guardians will win over 100 games in 2023. Bear with me.

Last season, after taking a few months to figure out who should be playing and where they should be hitting, as well as getting their bullpen straightened out, the Guardians finished 24-6, then went 4-3 in the post-season against Tampa and New York. They finished the season as one of the top four or five teams in baseball.

The Guardians started the season with Myles Straw leading off and Franmil Reyes hitting cleanup. It was a disaster in both cases. By the middle of the season Kwan was leading off, Reyes had been replaced mostly by Oscar Gonzalez, and Straw was hitting 9th. Big improvement.

As a leadoff hitter Straw hit .201 with on OBP of .294 in 229 at-bats. After Straw was moved to 9th, Kwan hit .311 with a .379 OBP in the #1 spot. Next year Kwan will lead off the entire season.

The Guardians’ designated hitters last year ranked 29th in OPS, an embarrassing .587. Franmil had about 250 AB’s as a DH and was a big part of that with a .213 average and 104 K’s. Owen Miller hit .176 in his 51 AB’s as a DH. That’s 300 very unproductive DH at-bats.

Next year with the acquisition of Josh Bell, Josh Naylor will get most of the at-bats at DH. Naylor hit .256/.771 last year and should hit much better this year between the shift being abolished and being a year further away from his leg injury.

I also expect a much better season out of Straw, who hit .313 in September after changing his approach. Straw stopped taking so many strikes and started attacking the first good pitch he saw, pulling the ball in some cases instead of slapping everything to right field. The results were obvious and immediate. Next year he’ll start the season with that approach and I expect he’ll have numbers similar to the .262/.665 he put up with the Astros in 2021 or maybe even the .285/.739 with the Indians the same year.

Jose Ramirez was hitting with a thumb injury most of the season, an injury that required surgery.

[Jose Ramirez] tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb at some point before Cleveland’s road trip to Colorado, Los Angeles and Minnesota in mid-June….Over his final 98 games, Ramírez hit .264 with a .763 OPS, 13 home runs and 64 RBI. He struck out 63 times and walked just 35 while essentially batting one-handed from the left side. - Joe Noga

When that road trip started on June 14 Jose was hitting .292/1.030 with 13 home runs in 167 at-bats. From June 15 on he hit 16 home runs in 434 at-bats, so the injury definitely affected his ability to drive the ball. Assuming he can avoid a similar injury next year his production should be significantly higher.

Oscar Gonzalez hit .296/.789 in 91 games. Assuming he’ll play more like 150 next year this should also boost the offense.

Will Brennan hit .357/.900 in a small sample of 42 AB’s, but he has a chance to also increase the offensive output. Last year Benson, Jones, and Palacios combined for about 250 mostly unproductive at-bats (.235 combined BA). Gonzalez and Brennan should get those at-bats this year.

So…between a more productive Jose Ramirez, a more productive Myles Straw, Kwan hitting leadoff all season, a full year of Oscar Gonzalez, and a lot more production from the DH position, the Guardians should score far more runs than last year, and that’s not including any additional production from the catching position, which had a line of .180/.530 last year. They’ll probably sign somebody who can do better than that.

What would more runs mean to the win-loss record?

The Guardians were 61-5 this year when scoring five runs or more. Obviously they lost some games by scores like 8-2 where even if they scored five runs they would have still lost. But I found 32 losses where the opponent scored four runs or fewer, meaning five runs would have won the game for the Guardians. There were also several games where the opponents scored exactly five runs and the G’s lost. So more offense would definitely result in quite a few more wins, and there are several reasons to believe the offense will be much better.

If even eight of those 32 losses where the opponent failed to score five runs could be turned into wins the Guardians would be a 100-win team.

As for the pitching, the top three starters were nails, although it took a few weeks to ramp them up after the lockout and shortened spring training.

Aaron Civale got off to a horrible start, allowing 27 runs in 31 innings in April and May. The lockout seemed to affect him more than anyone since he depends on impeccable command of multiple pitches. The rest of the season he had a 3.55 ERA despite three separate stints on the IL, each lasting 3-4 weeks. With a full spring training this season I expect Aaron to pick up where he left off. Whether he can stay healthy is the question.

The bullpen is what I’m really excited about. James Karinchak was injured to start last season and his first game was July 4. Pitching only half the season he had a 2.08 ERA and took over Bryan Shaw’s spot as the set-up man. Shaw had an ERA of 5.40. This year we’ll have Karinchak right from the start.

Trevor Stephan started the season as a middle reliever but was moved up and by the second half was regularly pitching in high leverage situations. He finished with a 2.69 ERA.

Nick Sandlin had a 3.66 ERA as of July 5. From then on he pitched 25 innings, allowing 12 hits, 3 earned runs, and a 1.08 ERA. He really came on strong after being sent down to work on his command.

Eli Morgan had a mid-season hiccup but in his last 18.2 innings allowed 10 hits, 2 earned runs, and a 0.96 ERA.

Cody Morris got his first appearance on Sep. 2, allowing 2 runs in 2 innings. From there on out he pitched 23.3 innings with a 1.52 ERA. I think he’s got a great chance to take over Plesac’s spot in the rotation.

The bullpen should be better with Shaw gone and Karinchak available from the start. Also, Sandlin and Morgan finished very strong and should pick up where they left off. We still have Clase, Stephan, and Hentges, who were fantastic. In Hentges’ last 15.1 innings (Sep and Oct) he allowed 4 hits, 0 runs, and struck out 20. He looked like Andrew Miller the last five weeks. The growth in Hentges, Sandlin, Morgan, and Stephan was extremely impressive.

After starting 19-24 (May 29) the Guardians finished 73-46, which projects to a 99-win season. - Joe Noga

There’s no reason they should start 19-24 this year since Straw and Reyes won’t be hitting leadoff and cleanup, the starters won’t be dealing with a short spring training, Bell and Gonzalez will be in the lineup, and Karinchak won’t be injured and Shaw won’t be pitching the 8th innings. Cody Morris may be starting or at least will take Shaw’s spot in the pen. Bieber will be in a contract year and not coming off an arm injury. Straw won’t hit .221.

Finally, the shortened basepaths will allow the Guardians to use their excellent team speed to steal even more bases. The Guardians were third in baseball with 119 steals last year. They should blow that out of the water.

I see no reason the Guardians won’t win 100 games other than injuries to multiple starters and/or Jose Ramirez.

It is no surprise that it took 28 paragraphs to make that a credit argument.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

It is no surprise that it took 28 paragraphs to make that a credit argument.

Did you mean "credible" argument? If so, I'm glad you think it credible.

I could have made it one paragraph, but it would have been harder to read.

There are a lot of reasons why the G's could realistically win 100 games. It's not as simple as, "Hey, they got Bell and Zunino - there's 10 more wins!"

A normal spring training instead of an abbreviated one will help - especially a control pitcher like Civale. Starting the season with the same lineup that finished 73-46 instead of what they put out there the first quarter of the season with will he huge. The elimination of the shift and the slightly shorter basepaths will help the Guardians more than any team in the A.L. And the addition of Bell, which pushes Naylor to DH, will help the team that finished 29th in DH OPS last year.

By the way, Naylor will be a year removed from his injury and will be helped more than anyone by the elimination of the shift. And if Zunino is fully recovered from his thoracic outlet problem, which was addressed with surgery, the black hole at catcher will turn into a 30 HR asset.

 

[macbdog]

The Athletic's beat writer for the White Sox has this assessment of their off-season so far:

Assessing the roster moves of the past two months comes down to two gambits. The White Sox are hoping that offloading defensive responsibilities from Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn, and adding Andrew Benintendi in left field, will offset losing one of the best hitters in franchise history, José Abreu. Johnny Cueto’s 2022 excellence was a bit of a surprise and it’s natural to question whether the free-agent righty can pull it off again. But the Sox are banking on Lance Lynn and Michael Kopech being healthy, and bounce-back years from Lucas Giolito and Mike Clevinger, to cancel out Cueto’s departure.

It could definitely work. It is eminently understandable why they did what they did. But it’s not a clear upgrade of last season’s roster, which was certainly seen as strong on paper in April.

Its a clear upgrade, because it's clear that whatever they were on paper didn't match what they actually were on the field. Benintendis contract is a little silly, but if he can help the Sox shore up their defensive issues and bump Eloy to DH, it's a win overall.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Did you mean "credible" argument? If so, I'm glad you think it credible.

I could have made it one paragraph, but it would have been harder to read.

There are a lot of reasons why the G's could realistically win 100 games. It's not as simple as, "Hey, they got Bell and Zunino - there's 10 more wins!"

A normal spring training instead of an abbreviated one will help - especially a control pitcher like Civale. Starting the season with the same lineup that finished 73-46 instead of what they put out there the first quarter of the season with will he huge. The elimination of the shift and the slightly shorter basepaths will help the Guardians more than any team in the A.L. And the addition of Bell, which pushes Naylor to DH, will help the team that finished 29th in DH OPS last year.

By the way, Naylor will be a year removed from his injury and will be helped more than anyone by the elimination of the shift. And if Zunino is fully recovered from his thoracic outlet problem, which was addressed with surgery, the black hole at catcher will turn into a 30 HR asset.

I did mean credible. Didn't proofread and auto correct must have gotten me!

 

[Cassity14]

I don't expect Gonzalez to be as effective next year. Kwan may come down a bit too, though I'm pretty bullish on him as a hitter.

I am hopeful that the Guardians are a year ahead of the metagame with their offensive approach and that shows right away with the shift abolished.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think Josh Naylor could have a breakout year. He's still young (turns 26 in late June) and trending up. His numbers for 2020, 2021, and 2022:

wRC+: 71, 90, 117
Hard hit %: 33.7, 41.8, 42.5
Pull %: 34.1, 40.0, 45.2

So he's pulling the ball more and hitting it hard more consistently. In 2020 he pulled the ball 34%, hit to center 40%, and oppo 24%. He's become a pull hitter over the last two years.

Last year opponents shifted on him 77% of the time, according to Pluto. This year it will be 0%. Even if his batted ball profile does not change at all next year his numbers will go up due to no shift on over 3/4ths of his at-bats.

The other factor is that he's a year removed from the injury and should continue trending up. The elimination of the shift helps left-handed pull hitters more than anyone.

The other thing going on with Naylor is he's learning to put more balls in the air and do more damage. His fly ball percentages the last three years are 24.7%, 31.9%, and 33.7%. And his fly balls are going farther. His HR/FB percentages are 4.8%, 11.7%, and 15.9%. More fly balls and a higher percentage going out. Part of that is probably due to Petco being the worst hitters' park and that affected his 2020 number prior to the trade.

Between Josh pulling the ball more, getting it in the air more, increasing his hard hit percentage resulting in more home runs per fly ball, and the elimination of the shift in 77% of his at-bats, I think everything is in place for Naylor to have a 30 HR, 100 RBI season with a wRC+ in the 125-130 neighborhood. Last year he had 20 HR and 79 RBI in 449 AB's.

He may also have more runners on base next year if he's hitting behind Bell instead of behind Reyes, who killed a lot of innings. Last year Naylor hit .309/.981 with RISP.

 

[BigJ0526]

Lets say Kwan is a .260/.320/.370 hitter from leadoff next year. OG and Giminez are .250/.290/.400 hitters. (maybe andres is closer to .300 or .310 obp by sheer hbp volume) I think those 2023 numbers are reasonable to expect considering none of them had put up last years numbers ever before in the majors.

Then lets further say we get career average years from both bell (.262/.351/.459) and zunino (.200/.271/.410)

I think that is enough to get to 90-95 wins, but not 100. for 100 wins i think we need everyone to duplicate last year, plus get better than average years from bell and zunino. Which is possible, but I personally dont think its likely.

 

[CATS44]

You are talking OPS's for Kwan, Gimenez, and Oscar of...

.690.

Thats 80 points below Kwans number last year and 120 points below his career MiLB number.

Kwans OBP at every age and every pro level has never been below .353.

Thats more than 80 points below Gimenez career number in both major and minor leagues.

Thats 100 points below Oscar in MLB last year and 60 points below his career MiLB number.

Totally unreasonable to expect that kind of collapse from any of them.

 

[sportscoach]

You are talking OPS's for Kwan, Gimenez, and Oscar of...

.690.

Thats 80 points below Kwans number last year and 120 points below his career MiLB number.

Kwans OBP at every age and every pro level has never been below .353.

Thats more than 80 points below Gimenez career number in both major and minor leagues.

Thats 100 points below Oscar in MLB last year and 60 points below his career MiLB number.

Totally unreasonable to expect that kind of collapse from any of them.

Though with the fact we would get to 90 wins with that scenario, getting a bit higher than 90 wouldnt be actually out of the question...