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Baker prolly shaved for Movember. Grow that caterpillar from scratch. Dirt Squirrel.
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Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons
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Triplethreat
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Go ahead and take a gander at all the top QB's in the league's INT numbers in their first 3 seasons in the league and then try to tell me 15-7 at the just about the halfway mark is not pretty fucking good...
He's on pace to throw about 32 TD's and 15 INT's...
Those would be impressive statistics the first year in an offense and we don't even know how this looks without the shadow Beckham has been casting. He will only continue to get better and better as he gains more comfort in the system, knowing where his reads should go and the plays that he needs to check into when defenses give him certain looks.
This year is all about learning the system, again he's essentially a rookie... If he can duplicate those year 1 stats where he went 28-14, and actually even improve upon them slightly? How is that not as major major win for us?
He's on pace to throw about 32 TD's and 15 INT's...
Those would be impressive statistics the first year in an offense and we don't even know how this looks without the shadow Beckham has been casting. He will only continue to get better and better as he gains more comfort in the system, knowing where his reads should go and the plays that he needs to check into when defenses give him certain looks.
This year is all about learning the system, again he's essentially a rookie... If he can duplicate those year 1 stats where he went 28-14, and actually even improve upon them slightly? How is that not as major major win for us?
Los216
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Baker is not essentially a rookie. He's not the first QB to learn a new system or play for multiple coaches. How about we stop handling him with kid gloves and hold the #1 overall pick in the draft to a higher standard?
You can't reference his rookie season after he was the #1 overall pick and cherry pick all the good things and two years later say he's essentially a rookie. No. Hold him to the standard that he should be held. #1 overall pick.
He didn't duplicate those 2018 stats last year and before Sunday he wasn't on pace to duplicate them either. Let's wait and see what he does.
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You also cannot ignore 2018 nor can you ignore what happened Sunday.
This is too quick of a judgement. Baker is on pace to have a good season and the Browns are on pace to make the playoffs. I'd call that a successful season for any QB.
Lee
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Lmao, math isn't your thing. If he has 7 INTs in 7 games and there are 16 games to the season, how is that on pace for 15 INTs? I will give you a minute to check your math and figure this out, lol
PS, also he is on pace to throw 34 TD's or 34.26 to be more specific, lmao. (4 semesters of college stats, I am 100% I am right, but 15 int's you are better than that)
Out of the Rafters at the Q
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Are we trying to talk about if he's been good enough so far this season, or are we trying to talk about if he can still be our franchise QB for the future? Because those are two very different conversations.
If you're looking ahead, not only do you have to discount all of last year as missed growth, but you have to look at the way Baker is working through issues that last season presented, and factor that into the evaluation. What bad habits did he develop last year, and is he going to be able to shirk those bad habits for the future?
The easiest one to look at on film is his ability to make plays from the pocket. You can see that Baker is trying to stay in the pocket. You can see him climbing up to make a play downfield, rather than rolling out the back like he was prone to doing earlier in the season. So, from a GM, HC, or QB Coach's perspective, he's doing the right things and that's all you can ask. Being coachable certainly puts him in the right group moving forward.
You guys bickering over counting stats just isn't relevant to the evaluation. Sure, he has 7 picks, but the question isn't if 7 is a lot or not. The question is what is leading to those interceptions. For a lot of them, to my untrained eye that can't evaluate a college QB for shit (I was a Rosen guy), it appears to be an inability to read zone coverages. So, is that something that is a showstopper for a young QB? I'd say no--plenty of QB's learn to read coverages and work the field better as they progress. But, it's something to keep an eye on. If our coaching staff feels Baker will never get it, then that's cause for concern.
Another thing to keep an eye on is his accuracy. He had a few un-Baker-like accuracy issues earlier this year, and I don't know what the cause was. Was it mechanical problems with Van Pelt's new footwork? If so, those are to be expected and I think you can write those off from the future-Baker evaluation process.
I'm just glad that I think we have the right people helping our players grow and evaluating them. They aren't going to make an evaluation off something stupid like "fifteen touchdown passes to seven interceptions. Is that good or bad?" and I can't say that confidently for our previous regimes
Lee
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Out of the Rafters at the Q
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@Lee your stats teacher would be ashamed of you.
You forgot to factor in the probability of each game being played when you added on the 9 yet-unplayed games.
Clearly @Triplethreat was taking into account the likelihood of COVID or other circumstances canceling a game. With less than 100% certainty of a game being played, you have to move the statistical expected results down as well. Using my unpublished algorithm, I feel comfortable saying Baker is on pace for a total of 8 interceptions this season. This model predicts that no NFL games will be played after the Monday night game on November 2nd.
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Part of the reason Baker's numbers are worse when targetting OBJ is that the other team's best corner covers OBJ - and usually with the help from a safety or linebacker.
The problem is Baker forces throws, even in that situation, which means the other team has no incentive to cover other receivers. I think that when OBJ is not in the game, for whatever reason, Baker's first move is to read the defense, which lets him find open receivers; whereas, with OBJ, I am pretty confident it is that Baker is trying to anticipate where OBJ is going to be.
The problem is Baker forces throws, even in that situation, which means the other team has no incentive to cover other receivers. I think that when OBJ is not in the game, for whatever reason, Baker's first move is to read the defense, which lets him find open receivers; whereas, with OBJ, I am pretty confident it is that Baker is trying to anticipate where OBJ is going to be.
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Yet while I agree with you that OBJ does indeed attract that much defensive attention, I am a little salty that some have insisted that the offense is better off without him. No, no, a thousand times no... that kind of attention creates opportunities for other pass catchers and Baker needs to finally take advantage of that attention.
Triplethreat
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This.
No one is saying it's a Beckham problem. It's CLEARLY a Baker problem. The issue is he's so hell bent on how he needs to get the ball to this electric playmaker that it's making his brain run circles. It's always there in the back of his mind.
The hope here is that Mayfield can play great to finish this season without Beckham and then we can incorporate him back next season when Baker has developed some better habits at scanning the field and reading the defenses.
I also want to point out some major issues.
1. Beckham's average yards per target this season are the lowest of his entire career. His average depth of target however is 13.3 yards down the field. So, it's very clear Mayfield is forcing some downfield throws to Beckham that just aren't being completed. Example the first throw in the Bengals game. Instead of making the smart play, he's trying to "give O'dell a chance to make a play" in 1 on 1 situations and it's simply not working. So Beckham has been catching almost exclusively his short targets this year.
2. Mayfields YPA is 3 yards more when targeting players not named O'Dell Beckham while his completion percentage is almost 80% targeting those players vs 54% when targeting Beckham. He's simply finding better matchups, and taking and making better throws downfield when it's not going to O'Dell.
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To be clear, I think the offense is going to be noticeably worse without OBJ. Teams will be able to stack another man in the box and, on passing plays, do what they did to Jarvis two years ago. Stefanski is going to need to be creative with guys like Hunt in order to overcome the extra focus against our run game and shot-passing game.
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It won't be as explosive, for sure, and I think the rushing attack could get worse. However, unlike a few years ago, I think the Browns have more passing weapons than in 2018, especially with the TE group.
col63onel
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Did a bit of a dive in 2018 Baker. Mainy, his difference in his first 6 games (under Hailey/Hue) and his last 8 (Freddie/Gregggggg).
In his first 6 games:
58.3% completion, 1.3:1 td:int, 6.6 ypa. Each one of those are bottom 5 numbers
Last 8 games:
68.4%, 2.4:1, 8.65 Those would make him easily a top 10 QB
Obviously, coaching changed. But I think and interesting before/after comparison was targets per game of some of his receivers. Keep in mind, he average 37.2 attempts per game in the first 6 games, and 32.9 in the second. (caveat the the 'before' numbers include the 1st half of the Jets game in which Tyrod played)
Player Targets pre coach change/ post coach changes
Landry 12 / 6.9
Njoku 7.4/4.6
Callaway 6.7/4.3
Those were the top 3 in targets for the year. Combines, went from averaging 70% of the targets to just under half of the targets.
Where did those targets go? Duke went from 3.5 to 4.1 (slight increase, but remember Baker had 4 less attempts per game, he went from about 9.4% to 12.5%). Hollywood only had 12 total targets in those first 6 games due to injuries (so average .5 per game played), but then averaged 3.9 per game. Perriman had 2 total targets before the change (.3 per game) and then average 2.9 the rest of the way. So this trio went from 11.6% of the targets to a 3rd of the targets.
And the thing is, with lest targets, Landry, Njoku and Callaway saw their efficient numbers (catch % and yards per target) go way up.
Now, the fact that Hollywood was hurt and we didn't even have Perriman till near midseason means we had less viable options at the start of the year. But it's evidence that Baker does better when he has more options.
So, if we have an offense where Landry, Hollywood, DPJ, Hooper, Bryant, Njoku and Hunt are all viable options, that looks a lot more similar to what we had in 2018.
So, perhaps he will be better without OBJ.
In his first 6 games:
58.3% completion, 1.3:1 td:int, 6.6 ypa. Each one of those are bottom 5 numbers
Last 8 games:
68.4%, 2.4:1, 8.65 Those would make him easily a top 10 QB
Obviously, coaching changed. But I think and interesting before/after comparison was targets per game of some of his receivers. Keep in mind, he average 37.2 attempts per game in the first 6 games, and 32.9 in the second. (caveat the the 'before' numbers include the 1st half of the Jets game in which Tyrod played)
Player Targets pre coach change/ post coach changes
Landry 12 / 6.9
Njoku 7.4/4.6
Callaway 6.7/4.3
Those were the top 3 in targets for the year. Combines, went from averaging 70% of the targets to just under half of the targets.
Where did those targets go? Duke went from 3.5 to 4.1 (slight increase, but remember Baker had 4 less attempts per game, he went from about 9.4% to 12.5%). Hollywood only had 12 total targets in those first 6 games due to injuries (so average .5 per game played), but then averaged 3.9 per game. Perriman had 2 total targets before the change (.3 per game) and then average 2.9 the rest of the way. So this trio went from 11.6% of the targets to a 3rd of the targets.
And the thing is, with lest targets, Landry, Njoku and Callaway saw their efficient numbers (catch % and yards per target) go way up.
Now, the fact that Hollywood was hurt and we didn't even have Perriman till near midseason means we had less viable options at the start of the year. But it's evidence that Baker does better when he has more options.
So, if we have an offense where Landry, Hollywood, DPJ, Hooper, Bryant, Njoku and Hunt are all viable options, that looks a lot more similar to what we had in 2018.
So, perhaps he will be better without OBJ.