Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[Triplethreat]

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

For reference, OBJ is the eighth highest paid receiver on a per year basis while also being the eighth rated WR by PFF over the course of his career, and is in his age prime. The injury could change that, but the contract is in line with his production as a WR1.

Those "over the course of his career" numbers are only that high because of the first three years of his career, where he outperformed everything he's done since then. What I really care about is how he's performed more recently, and especially for the Browns. And in that regard, he was 53rd last year. This year, he wasn't in the top 25 before the injury. Now maybe it's because of him, maybe it's because of Baker, maybe it's because of a very run-heavy offense. Probably some combination. But regardless of why, if he's the 8th highest paid WR, then he's clearly getting paid more than his performance with the Browns warrants, because he isn't close to producing like the 8th best WR here.

Now then add into that the injury. This year is obviously shot, and he's unlikely to be 100% for all of next season either. So odds are he very likely isn't going to be worth the 8th highest salary for the Browns next year either. That may -- or may not -- be different with another team, which is why another team may see him as more valuable on their roster than he is to ours..

I understand you are of the position that a WR1 isn't a position to pay a high premium on.

How do you understand something I never said?

That isn't my position at all. Again, whether it is because of Odell himself, Baker, or the scheme/playcalling, OBJ hasn't produced like a high-end No.1 since he's been here. If he had been putting up numbers like Keenan Allen, for example, I'd have no issue paying him because that would indicate that we're running a lot of offense through him successfully. We'd be getting production commensurate with the salary.

But OBJ is not producing like that here, and that's all I'm saying. I also think it would be overly-optimistic to assume that -- with the same QB and offensive scheme -- a post-ACL surgery OBJ is going to leap back into producing top 8 PFF numbers here in Cleveland when he couldn't crack the top 25 prior to that injury. It's possible...but unlikely.

Again, it's not that I think he's a bum, or that we need to get rid of him for reasons of chemistry, or even that it doesn't make sense for the Browns to have a "No. 1" WR., etc.. I'm not trashing the guy. It is just a bottom-line monetary issue. Considering the very real holes we have on the defense, and bills coming due for guys like Ward, Chubb, Teller, and Mayfield on offense, we cannot afford to pay 8th best WR in the league money to a guy who isn't producing numbers to justify that salary. We just need that money more elsewhere on the roster.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Those "over the course of his career" numbers are only that high because of the first three years of his career, where he outperformed everything he's done since then. What I really care about is how he's performed more recently, and especially for the Browns. And in that regard, he was 53rd last year. This year, he wasn't in the top 25 before the injury. Now maybe it's because of him, maybe it's because of Baker, maybe it's because of a very run-heavy offense. Probably some combination. But regardless of why, if he's the 8th highest paid WR, then he's clearly getting paid more than his performance with the Browns warrants, because he isn't close to producing like the 8th best WR here.

There is a wide gap between the production in 2019 and 2020. I think you should stick to his play so far this season, but if you really dislike OBJ I suppose last season's horrible performance by the entire unit benefits an argument against the player.

Up until his injury, his production was right there with Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper and other players in his tax bracket. I think that's one reason why I'm not bullish on a trade. He was a third of the way through a season that proved his worth.

As for the defense, I just believe the Browns are drafting for defensive talent rather than paying for it in free agency.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

There is a wide gap between the production in 2019 and 2020. I think you should stick to his play so far this season,

Okay - then he was 25th after 5 games, when we were 4-1. Still doesn't warrant being the 8th highest paid WR.

25. ODELL BECKHAM JR., CLEVELAND BROWNS
Beckham is starting to look like the player he was earlier in his career, but he isn’t all the way back to that level yet. At his best, Beckham was earning PFF grades above 90.0 with the Giants, but this season his grade is 76.7, which is a significant jump over his debut season in Cleveland but still some way short of his best play

PFF Rankings: The NFL’s top 25 wide receivers through Week 5 of the 2020 season | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

With five weeks of the 2020 NFL season in the books, these are the NFL's top 25 wide receivers based on performance this year and in the past.

www.pff.com

 

[raiders91sc]

Again, it's not a question of scapegoating anyone. I don't even get ESPN, and don't give two shits about what Smith or any other talking head says about trading OBJ. It's simply a matter of allocating money.

Defensively, we are a disaster. We basically have one starting quality DB, and he is going to be up for major pay increase. Otherwise, the DB's and LB's are below average as a group. We also need another pass rusher.

Offensively, we are a run heavy team that has invested heavily in the OL, and that has a strong TE group. We're going to have to spend even more to extend Teller, Chubb, and likely Mayfield.

I don't see a roadmap to fixing the defense and retaining other critical offensive players while paying Landry and OBJ a combined $26M. Given that we seem to have some young WR's that aren't completely incompetent, OBJ and his $15M+ seem more of a luxury than a necessity, and I just don't think we can continue to afford that.

Saying we have 1 NFL quality starting DB is kinda of a exaggeration. For the season from PFF Ward is currently ranked overall 18th(18th coverage), Mitchell is 46th(52nd), Johnson is 83rd(72), and Thomas 89th(89). In reality there is 96 starting CBs in the NFL. To put it in more perspective Peters who just signed a big time contract with Baltimore is ranked 91st, Lattimore at 93rd, and Peterson from Arizona is 79th.

Ronnie Harrison is 2nd(3rd), Joseph 74(73), Sendejo 83 (78).

 

[Randolphkeys]

Okay - then he was 25th after 5 games, when we were 4-1. Still doesn't warrant being the 8th highest paid WR.

25. ODELL BECKHAM JR., CLEVELAND BROWNS
Beckham is starting to look like the player he was earlier in his career, but he isn’t all the way back to that level yet. At his best, Beckham was earning PFF grades above 90.0 with the Giants, but this season his grade is 76.7, which is a significant jump over his debut season in Cleveland but still some way short of his best play

PFF Rankings: The NFL’s top 25 wide receivers through Week 5 of the 2020 season | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

With five weeks of the 2020 NFL season in the books, these are the NFL's top 25 wide receivers based on performance this year and in the past.

www.pff.com

I guess I don't see a reason for dissatisfaction. If you want a list of players who make top 20 WR money and do less, it's easy to type up.

Baker has had a rough start to the season up until he found his groove, and he found his groove after OBJ was injured. Some people want causation, I'm not sure about it. I think it's just as likely Baker stepped up knowing he lost one of his best weapons and he hadn't been pulling his weight for a bit.

Receiver production is so connected to quarterback success, I find it hard to get worked up about ranking 25th at WR when the QB was struggling.

 

[Wrathe]

If you want a list of players who make top 20 WR money and do less, it's easy to type up.

Do they play for CLE? If so, he'd probably feel the same way about them.

I get where he's coming from.

My opinion goes more the other way though. I've been impressed w/ OBJ's effort, demeanor and attitude during his time in CLE, as it pertains to CLE sidelines and not LSU ones anyways, hehe. I know him and Landry love playing together and I'm a big Landry fan too. So wouldn't it be nice if we could work out something w/ them both for less $ and slide that over to the D.

I will say though, if Baker continues to light it up w/o OBJ, and does it via spreading the ball around; makes you wonder why that can't happen w/ OBJ on the field then.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I will say though, if Baker continues to light it up w/o OBJ, and does it via spreading the ball around; makes you wonder why that can't happen w/ OBJ on the field then.

Personally, if that's the case, I'm inclined to think the issue is more with Mayfield than with OBJ. OBJ looked absolutely amazing with the corpse of Eli Manning throwing him the ball, and yet Baker can't seem to hit him in stride and hasn't managed to develop any sort of chemistry with him.

I subscribe to the theory that others have posted here that OBJ gets more freedom with his routes than our other receivers because he's so damn good, but that throws Baker off and leaves him staring down OBJ and waiting for him to get open rather than going through his reads and putting the ball where it needs to be.

 

[Lee]

Sportscenter just put up a stat.....When Baker is throwing to beckham vs all other receivers...

Beckham .................... All Others
54% completion% 79%
6.9 Yards per att. 10.6
28% of target % 11%
73.6 ...... QBR .......96.2

Interesting

 

[mAo_mAo]

Sometimes chemistry is more important than raw talent. If both players, mayfield and obj, can not adjust to each other's strengths and tendencies it is time to look elsewhere.

 

[Kiddo]

Sportscenter just put up a stat.....When Baker is throwing to beckham vs all other receivers...

Beckham .................... All Others
54% completion% 79%
6.9 Yards per att. 10.6
28% of target % 11%
73.6 ...... QBR .......96.2

Interesting

Baker is a young QB trying to keep his star WR happy, he locks in on him and waits to throw until he's open. If he doesn't get open there isn't enough time to go to option 2. It was clear on Sunday that Baker was much quicker going through his reads and was playing free. I've always liked OBJ but i don't think he fits well with a young QB trying to find his footing in the league.

 

[CBBI]

 

[Surge]

Hate to say it, but I think I agree with Orlovsky. The problem is Baker's first thought likely being "where's OBJ" isn't Beckham's problem. It's Bakers problem.

Also it doesn't explain his general lack of accuracy when throwing to OBJ.

 

[Los216]

We've seen Baker look horrible throwing to every receiver though so it's weird seeing it painted as just Odell. he misses high to our TE's a lot. They're are taller so maybe he feels like he has to get the ball up higher but usually when he misses to a TE it's a high ball. That's how Njoku got hurt last season. he puts too much zip on some passes that require more touch. His pocket awareness. reliance on being rolled out. Inability to throw in the face of pressure. None of those are Odell problems or any other receiver problems. Those are all Baker problems.

 

[Vee-Rex]

We've seen Baker look horrible throwing to every receiver though so it's weird seeing it painted as just Odell. he misses high to our TE's a lot. They're are taller so maybe he feels like he has to get the ball up higher but usually when he misses to a TE it's a high ball. That's how Njoku got hurt last season. he puts too much zip on some passes that require more touch. His pocket awareness. reliance on being rolled out. Inability to throw in the face of pressure. None of those are Odell problems or any other receiver problems. Those are all Baker problems.

I think you misunderstand if you're assuming anyone's blaming OBJ here.