15th Roster Spot?

[PedroFlu]

IMO the Cavs really need a solid backup PG. I don't think Dellavedova can be part of a solid 8 men rotation in the playoffs.

Right now we have 7 guys who are good enough to be in the playoff rotation of a contender: Irving, JR, Shumpert, LeBron, Love, TT, Mozgov.

Marion and Delly can be useful in certain situations, but I don't think they can be relied on a regular basis in the playoffs.

Jordan Farmar could definitely be that guy. He can be a reliable backup pg.

If we could also nail Blatche, it would make it perfect.

But I'd be good with Farmar/Shumpert/TT logging in big minutes from the bench in the playoffs. This could be enough to get to the finals.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

What if we trade James Jones and Joe Harris for Hassan Whiteside? Then we sign Ray Allen. I'm sure Riles has his price - git 'er done!

 

[raisen]

What if we trade James Jones and Joe Harris for Hassan Whiteside? Then we sign Ray Allen. I'm sure Riles has his price - git 'er done!

Put Whiteside aside, can't image we trade the guys persuaded by LeBron. (Mike Miller, James Jones)

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Put Whiteside aside, can't image we trade the guys persuaded by LeBron. (Mike Miller, James Jones)

It's an exchange! LeBron gets 2 buddies, who occupy the lockers to the left and right of his, and who fluff him before every game. We are just swapping one out for the other. Jones for Allen. He still keeps two buddies. That's more than fair.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Look - I'm trying to solve problems here! I'm using my noggin!

We need another big, and we need another guard with handles, who can shoot. Nobody is more pleased than me that we brought in The Vanilla Gorilla 2.0, but now we need Chocolate Thunder 2.0. That's where Whiteside comes in. Any guy who blocks 12 shots in a game belongs on my roster. I want humiliations galore. I want shattered backboards. Whiteside = CT2. Get it done, Griffin!

 

[Sir John]

IMO the Cavs really need a solid backup PG. I don't think Dellavedova can be part of a solid 8 men rotation in the playoffs.

Right now we have 7 guys who are good enough to be in the playoff rotation of a contender: Irving, JR, Shumpert, LeBron, Love, TT, Mozgov.

Marion and Delly can be useful in certain situations, but I don't think they can be relied on a regular basis in the playoffs.

Jordan Farmar could definitely be that guy. He can be a reliable backup pg.

If we could also nail Blatche, it would make it perfect.

But I'd be good with Farmar/Shumpert/TT logging in big minutes from the bench in the playoffs. This could be enough to get to the finals.

What's interesting is that while this is the widespread conventional wisdom, it turns out that only the top 6-77 or so players make any statistical impact on playoff wins.

That's different than the regular season, where deep rotations can help a team get to the playoffs.

But once the playoffs start, the only players that matter is your top 6-7. Players 8+ make zero statistical difference in outcomes. (Arturo Galleti has a good explanatory breakdown here.)

That doesn't mean that players 8-12 don't get some playing time, it means that their minutes have no statistical outcome on the series. They don't play enough to impact the game, positively or negatively. And they certainly don't play enough to make a difference over a merely league average player.

I know that sounds insanely counterintuitive but the math is there.

Most, if not all, teams radically tighten their rotations during the playoffs. Depth, fatigue, injuries don't matter as much. NBA players can power through post-season series and you want your best players on the floor as much as possible.

So...I'm all for adding another quality player or two.

But that's primarily so that the top players can keep their minutes low in the regular season and be fresh for when it matters, not cause it's likely anyone the Cavs would add now would be a top 7 rotational piece.

(But of course if they can get a Top 7 rotational player, better than someone in our current Top 7, then so much the better.)

 

[TFIR]

But that's primarily so that the top players can keep their minutes low in the regular season and be fresh for when it matters, not cause it's likely anyone the Cavs would add now would be a top 7 rotational piece.

Nice post, and I liked it. But to add to it...

Another reason to add a big would be as insurance. Say one of the bigs get hurt. Then that borderline top 7 guy suddenly vaults to top 7-8 status.

Another reason to add a point guard who plays more offense than Delly is because perhaps there might be a matchup situation in the playoffs where putting Kyrie at SG might work better. Also, Delly plays nice D, and shoots 3's but assists and penetration are not strengths.

If Kyrie got hurt, then all of a sudden a good backup PG would become an important piece.

So....insurance and potential matchups.

 

[KLove14]

Haywood & Harris for Koufos and Calathes anyone? We'd be set for both C and PG.

 

[malus]

Haywood & Harris for Koufos and Calathes anyone? We'd be set for both C and PG.

Memphis isn't looking to move Koufos unless they're getting someone who can contribute immediately.

 

[Jordan]

What's interesting is that while this is the widespread conventional wisdom, it turns out that only the top 6-77 or so players make any statistical impact on playoff wins.

That's different than the regular season, where deep rotations can help a team get to the playoffs.

But once the playoffs start, the only players that matter is your top 6-7. Players 8+ make zero statistical difference in outcomes. (Arturo Galleti has a good explanatory breakdown here.)

That doesn't mean that players 8-12 don't get some playing time, it means that their minutes have no statistical outcome on the series. They don't play enough to impact the game, positively or negatively. And they certainly don't play enough to make a difference over a merely league average player.

I know that sounds insanely counterintuitive but the math is there.

Most, if not all, teams radically tighten their rotations during the playoffs. Depth, fatigue, injuries don't matter as much. NBA players can power through post-season series and you want your best players on the floor as much as possible.

So...I'm all for adding another quality player or two.

But that's primarily so that the top players can keep their minutes low in the regular season and be fresh for when it matters, not cause it's likely anyone the Cavs would add now would be a top 7 rotational piece.

(But of course if they can get a Top 7 rotational player, better than someone in our current Top 7, then so much the better.)

That's a truly amazing article, and thanks for posting, but one flaw I notice is it doesn't account for matchups and homecourt throughout the entire playoffs. I.E., if I'm correct, the 5 seed is the least desirable in making a playoff run because they face the toughest teams with no home court. So, while it may be a good tool in series-by-series analytics, I don't think it does a great job of necessarily predicting who wins titles. For example, San Antonio's starting five was not the NBA's best last year, but their depth allowed them to power through and utilize the best matchups against various teams.

 

[TFIR]

What Amare needs is a placement that requires nothing more than 15 minutes off the bench per game. Hmmmm

Amare Stoudemire - F/C - Knicks

Amare Stoudemire will decide if he wants to ask the Knicks for a buyout during the All-Star break.

The Knicks obviously aren't going anywhere in the Eastern Conference, so it's understandable if he wants to get as far away as possible from them. Stoudemire has been battling injuries for years now, so it will be interesting to see what kind of interest he can generate from other NBA teams.

 

[brownsbuck6]

Ha. Before the season's over a quarter of our roster will be ex Knicks at this rate. Make me giggle thinking about how that will go over in NY watching them contribute to a title run.

 

[wuck]

Windhorst said again today that the Cavs are still looking for another big man and a backup PG. The win streak and good health have meant they have been fortunate to have some patience waiting for the right deal. They only have 4 more games before the trade deadline (Feb. 19) and the possibility of picking up players waived or bought out after the trading rush also looms.

Rather than improving through trades, I still think they'll have better opportunities with players who are bought out and clear waivers, or players who finish their seasons in China. The more they win between now and then, the more attractive they will be. Amare is just one example of this.

 

[TFIR]

Exactly. A guy like Amare could come (happened in Miami all the time) and simply play for the vet's minimum to have a shot at a ring.

 

[mokbu]

oh no...another All Star break Amare safari.