2014 - 2015 Eastern Conference

[Cassity14]

The Cavs will get off to a slower start than we'd like, being somewhere in the neighborhood of like 12-7 early on. Not sure about that comment regarding LeBron's Cavs beating 'better Chicago teams' earlier. They were the 8 seed and Rose was in his 2nd year playing for Del Negro...

Chicago is good, but they aren't as good as they were in 2010-2011 when Miami ate their lunch in the ECF. That team was soooo deep and full of quality players at every rotation spot. They're going to be a great regular season team as usual. Joakim Noah is being undersold a lot in this thread. He's a problem for every single team in the league and is by far their 2nd best player. If his scoring ability continues to improve, he'll be a hassle. Outside of Rose and Noah, however, they struggle offensively. Gasol is a major issue defending 4s as well. Against the Cavs, Gasol will be torched by Love, or Noah will be pulled out of the paint. The Bulls have some very good defenders, but not as many as they're used to. Chicago, if healthy, wins 55+

I love Charlotte this year. With Indiana falling off, I see this team hosting a playoff series. Another team who plays great defense for their coach, and they just added a very good 2 way player in Stephenson. They'll have 2 all-stars in Lance and Big Al. The supporting cast will leave them wanting, however, and probable 2nd round playoff fodder. They'll play some interesting series hopefully against Miami and/or Washington. Those would each be entertaining. Charlotte wins 48-51.

Miami has experience from the front office to the end of the bench. I personally believe Bosh is going to have a big year. They will be a tough out in the postseason for anyone other than Cleveland. LeBron will want to sweep them because Riley will say some stupid shit to rile him up. Miami wins 48-51.

Toronto is solid but not scary. They bring back pretty much the same team. Other than Jonas, they're topped out in terms of player development IMO. 45 ish wins

I think Washington is going to take a colossal step back and everyone will be shocked even though they shouldn't be. Their guards can't be too much improved, because they were both first wave cuts at team USA camp. John Wall is good, but he's not great, and he can't carry an offense. Neither can Beal. They compliment each other, but neither is a superstar. Beal can't make his teammates better, and Wall can't truly punish a defense for not directing all their attention at him. Washington hovers around .500 all year.

The NBA fan in my is bummed for Indi's fortune because I was looking forward to a strong eastern conference again. As a Cavs fan, I love it. I think the Cavs win 56 games this season.

 

[catfish]

Not sure if this has been posted here:


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Team Effort
These Cavs Could Be LeBron’s Best Supporting Cast Ever

9:52 AMAug 9 By Neil Paine
LeBron James waits for play to resume in a 2010 NBA game against the New Orleans Hornets in Cleveland.

LeBron James waits for play to resume in a 2010 NBA game against the New Orleans Hornets in Cleveland.

Tony Dejak/ AP

As we wrote Thursday, the 2014-15 Cleveland Cavaliers figure to be a very good basketball team after acquiring Kevin Love from the Minnesota Timberwolves in a trade this week. That move came on top of the offseason’s biggest coup — persuading LeBron James to return to Ohio after a four-season stint in Miami — and it gives the Cavs two of the top six or so players in the NBA. According to our calculations, Cleveland has the talent to rattle off more than 60 wins next season.

James is no stranger to helping rack up big win totals. His teams have won 60 or more games in a season three times in his 12-year NBA career, and 50 or more games eight times (pro-rating the 2011-12 Heat’s 46 wins in 66 games up to 57.2 wins in the NBA’s usual 82-game schedule). But, provided they stay relatively healthy next year, James’s new Cleveland teammates could supply him with the best supporting cast he’s ever had.

We can measure the contributions of James’s teammates by looking at how well a statistic like Real Plus/Minus (RPM) or Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) would predict they’d play if his team replaced him with an average player. For example, RPM calls for the 2014-15 Cavaliers to produce a +9.6 efficiency differential, or the gap between offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency (and a predictor of future success). James is projected for a +9.1 RPM while playing 72.9 percent of the team’s available minutes. Given his performance and playing time, his teammates would need +0.7 RPM apiece for the team’s overall differential to add up to 9.6. This implies that a team composed of James’s Cavs teammates — plus an average player (with a rating of 0.0) taking up James’s 72.9 percent of available minutes — would instead have a differential of +2.9.

We can calculate this for each of James’s teams, using both SPM and RPM, to find the most talented supporting casts he’s played alongside:

paine-datalab-lebronteammates-table

If we use our earlier projected distribution of minutes played, then the 2014-15 Cavaliers will easily feature the best supporting cast James has ever lined up with. However, as we noted earlier, there are a few reasons to think James’s new teammates might be closer to the pack.

First, injuries could matter quite a bit for this group. Kyrie Irving and Love combined for 148 games played last season but were limited to 67 the year before. Using Houston Rockets analyst Ed Kupfer’s rule of thumb that players should be penalized one game for each six missed last season and one for each 20 missed two years before (from a baseline forecast of 76 games played), the Cavs would project to give 2,125 minutes to players unaccounted for on our roster projection. If those replacement-level players performed at a level of -2.0 points per 100 possessions, then the 2014-15 Cavs’ supporting cast would produce an RPM differential of +1.4 without James, which would be only marginally ahead of that provided by James’s teammates on the 2013-14 Heat.

There’s also the issue of growing pains — and diminishing returns — when a new roster comes together. Love might be a perfect fit with James and the Cavs, but players joining unfamiliar teams tend to perform worse than their plus/minus ratings would predict. This could especially be true because of the adjustment that will be required of Love, who used 28.6 percent of the Timberwolves’ possessions while on the floor last season. He’ll be joining forces with James (31.0 percent of possessions used with the Heat), plus Kyrie Irving (28.1 percent) and Dion Waiters (25.8 percent). Following in the footsteps of the 2010-11 Heat, next year’s Cleveland squad will probably blow away records for possession-users coming together on a team. However, it’s not always easy to predict how much of a difference there will be between the sum of a team’s parts and its actual performance.

Even so, the Cavaliers are considered the favorites to win next year’s NBA championship. A lot of that is due to James’s return, but it doesn’t hurt that he’ll play with the most gifted set of teammates he’s ever had.

 

[stowfan]

siap;

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11334160/2014-summer-forecast-east-standings

 

[Mr. Orange]

The Cavs are not going to lose more than 20 games next year. I still don't think people realize how ridiculous we are going to be. Blatt will make the pieces fit. James and Love will make everyone play their roles. Wire to wire in the East.

 

[Cashius X]

Just now dawning on me how deep the Bulls are. Starting 5 of Rose, Butler, Dunleavy, Gasol, Noah and then a bench of Kirk Hinrich, Tony Snell, Doug McDermott, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, and Nazr Mohammad. And they just signed Aaron Brooks a couple weeks ago too.

I think the East is going to be a two team conference for the next few years. Bulls and Cavs are neck and neck imo. Should be some real great battles for a long time.

 

[gourimoko]

Just now dawning on me how deep the Bulls are. Starting 5 of Rose, Butler, Dunleavy, Gasol, Noah and then a bench of Kirk Hinrich, Tony Snell, Doug McDermott, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, and Nazr Mohammad. And they just signed Aaron Brooks a couple weeks ago too.

I think the East is going to be a two team conference for the next few years. Bulls and Cavs are neck and neck imo. Should be some real great battles for a long time.

Why are the Bulls neck and neck with the Cavs?

 

[OptimusPrime]

The Bulls have almost no shooting. They are going to have to play McDermott big minutes and hope he can guard someone. Dunleavy is finished and Snell is ok, but Butler is an awful offensive player, Rose could never shoot, and none of their bigs are stretch guys.

Their frontcourt is very impressive, and if they beat the Cavs in a series that will be the reason why. But a team with bigs that can man up to them should have no problem with them. Just pack the paint and rebound the misses.

 

[Cashius X]

Why are the Bulls neck and neck with the Cavs?

Largely because our biggest weakness is one of their biggest strengths...the frontcourt. Kevin Love is a superstar but I think the rotation of Gasol, Gibson, Mirotic, and Noah will really give us trouble come playoff time.

And you're not going to find a team more top heavy or with more pure talent than we have in Cleveland. A team like the Bulls though that is legitimately two deep at every position is imo the best way to go about beating us though. Some say LeBron is our trump card but it's not that simple as the Bulls have one of the best "LeBron stoppers" in the league in Jimmy Butler.

We should have one of the best offenses in the league and the Bulls are routinely one of the elite defensive teams in the league. They matchup very well with us and unfortunately we're in the same conference and division. They even won 48 games last year without their MVP PG in Derrick Rose.

I think it's only fair and objective to say the Bulls and Cavs are neck and neck in terms of which team is better. I actually wouldn't blame anyone who views the Bulls as the best team in the conference even with all the recent signings we've had. It's that close imo.

 

[Cashius X]

The Bulls have almost no shooting. They are going to have to play McDermott big minutes and hope he can guard someone. Dunleavy is finished and Snell is ok, but Butler is an awful offensive player, Rose could never shoot, and none of their bigs are stretch guys.

Their frontcourt is very impressive, and if they beat the Cavs in a series that will be the reason why. But a team with bigs that can man up to them should have no problem with them. Just pack the paint and rebound the misses.

Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks, Derrick Rose, Tony Snell, Jimmy Butler (on spot ups), McDermott, Dunleavy, and Nikola Mirotic all can shoot the ball.

And Gasol and Mirotic are their bigs that can stretch the floor. Taj also has a reliable mid-range jumper if I'm not mistaken.

You can keep selling them short if you want but they're definitely a team on the same level as ours.

Edit: The underlined is my worry. We have guys that can check Gasol, Mirotic, and Gibson but Noah is a guy who I don't think we can match up with right now. He'll be a problem and then the Buls also have big physical defenders that could cause problems for our guards. The way they're built is annoying...seems like they were tailor-made to go up against us.

 

[Ohio]

Chicago's bench is just not that good. Tony Snell? Kirk Hinrich? Ehh, okay.

Delly, Allen, Miller, Marion, TT shits all over their bench.

 

[OptimusPrime]

They are a bad matchup for us because we only have one center and he misses as many games as he plays. They aren't a team on "the same level as ours". San Antonio and Memphis and other good teams that have bigs will smother them. They aren't a championship caliber team. They are a good team that because of matchups could ruin our chance at a championship.

 

[Ohio]

Chicago is our biggest threat in the East, so people will gas them up because they feel they have to. Plus, everyone just badly wants MVP Rose back.

Let's see what Rose can do for 35 minutes against an NBA team. Going hard to the hole once a quarter in an exhibition game is just not impressive, I'm sorry. He was generally rusty as fuck out there, not sure why there was so much unwarranted hype about his performance. Goes back to people desperately wanting to see him return to MVP form I suppose.

All things considered, not seeing the Bulls on our level right now on paper.

 

[Bandwagoner305]

The Bulls plays a very gritty, blue collar, ugly, grinding out type of defense. They have the tendency to force every teams to play at their slow and low scoring pace, and we're going to see a lot of that this season. The Cavs will have the advantage if the coach decides to let LeBron defend Rose. LeBron knows how to limit Rose on the offensive end, and Rose isn't a great play-maker or has the type of IQ to create crisp effective plays for his teammates like CP3, Rondo, LeBron, etc, are capable of doing. He's almost like Westbrook because they're both shoot-first, pass-second type of PG's, but Rose is slightly a bit more disciplined. LeBron will do what he always does to Rose whenever he played against him in the post-season, limit Rose's scoring = limit Bulls offense.

 

[Cashius X]

They are a bad matchup for us because we only have one center and he misses as many games as he plays. They aren't a team on "the same level as ours". San Antonio and Memphis and other good teams that have bigs will smother them. They aren't a championship caliber team. They are a good team that because of matchups could ruin our chance at a championship.

You're under-selling them...a lot.

Chicago is our biggest threat in the East, so people will gas them up because they feel they have to. Plus, everyone just badly wants MVP Rose back.

Let's see what Rose can do for 35 minutes against an NBA team. Going hard to the hole once a quarter in an exhibition game is just not impressive, I'm sorry. He was generally rusty as fuck out there, not sure why there was so much unwarranted hype about his performance. Goes back to people desperately wanting to see him return to MVP form I suppose.

All things considered, not seeing the Bulls on our level right now on paper.

Who's gassing them up? That's a team that won 48 games last year without Derrick Rose. He's coming back this season and apparently he's still a pretty good player because he beat out Dame Lillard and Kyrie for the starting PG spot on Team USA.

They're a well constructed team and I'd have them as championship contenders even if they were in the West. Their roster looks that good.

If you want to rationalize why so many people think they'll give us a challenge then go ahead. But the truth is so many people think we'll be in close competition with them because we're both really good teams.

 

[CavsHomer]

Just now dawning on me how deep the Bulls are. Starting 5 of Rose, Butler, Dunleavy, Gasol, Noah and then a bench of Kirk Hinrich, Tony Snell, Doug McDermott, Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, and Nazr Mohammad. And they just signed Aaron Brooks a couple weeks ago too.

I think the East is going to be a two team conference for the next few years. Bulls and Cavs are neck and neck imo. Should be some real great battles for a long time.

I won't disagree with you on this. It's scary how deep they are. In terms of roster depth, they have a bunch of very good/versatile players.
It will be a great rivalry between those two teams in the upcoming years.

I don't want to go to deep right now in breaking down their roster... However, they have some big question marks as well:
Health, Age, Rooks, outside shooting.
While the first two points are pretty obvious (Gasol/Dunleavy/Hinrich are all 34+ years old come playoff time), let me explain the last two points.
They are relying heavily on good performances from their rookies a la McDermott/Mirotic. If the McDermott experiment doesn't pan out (who knows?), Bulls have a real big hole at the small forward position...not good for them.
Mirotic is unproven as well and on defense is where both players really struggle.
Now you might think that outside shooting isn't a problem at all for Chicago with the acquisitions of McDermott, Mirotic and Moore...
But: Their expected starting line up (Rose/Butler/McDermott/Gasol/Noah) is not good at shooting the 3 ball AT ALL. McDermott probably is the only player capable of draining 3 pointers on a consistent basis.
Of course, they have good flexibility with Mirotic, Snell and Moore. But the questions is: What are you willing to give up to get better outside shooting? And the obvious answer, in this case, is defense.
Snell/Moore for Butler and Mirotic for Gasol/Noah will certainly help their shooting but at the same time, it downgrades their perimeter and paint defense - their biggest strength...
Imo, our starting five is more well balanced in that aspect, which will help a lot.

Bulls and Cavs really are neck and neck right now, but we clearly are the more talented team. And in the end, talent is what wins playoff games!