2017 Browns Mock Draft Thread

[Lee]

If you're basing that off completion percentage, which is a false equivalency IMO, than you're likely not to answer that question as honestly as possible.

I am basing of completion percentage, and in a small sample of about 40 QB's, i found in a pro offense it usually doesnt get better in the NFL.

I get your point, but my fear is Derek Andersons can be predicted off of low completion percentage in college. Its decently reliable.

No metric is 100%, but it is my opinion college completion percentage matters. But, the Gimmick offenses in college can throw that off a bit like a David Carr.

 

[Pick6]

Use adjusted completion percentage and no thanks on Josh Dobbs. Also agree that accuracy doesn't seem to generally doesn't improve much. Is there any case study to disprove that statement?

 

[Soda]

I am basing of completion percentage, and in a small sample of about 40 QB's, i found in a pro offense it usually doesnt get better in the NFL.

I get your point, but my fear is Derek Andersons can be predicted off of low completion percentage in college. Its decently reliable.

No metric is 100%, but it is my opinion college completion percentage matters. But, the Gimmick offenses in college can throw that off a bit like a David Carr.

What does your stat say about Dak? While he can be an outlier in this, I still do remember him being knocked about his accuracy during draft season.

 

[Pick6]

What does your stat say about Dak? While he can be an outlier in this, I still do remember him being knocked about his accuracy during draft season.

Quick look shows he is completing a little under 2% more passes this season than last year at Miss St.

 

[bob2the2nd]

I am basing of completion percentage, and in a small sample of about 40 QB's, i found in a pro offense it usually doesnt get better in the NFL.

I get your point, but my fear is Derek Andersons can be predicted off of low completion percentage in college. Its decently reliable.

No metric is 100%, but it is my opinion college completion percentage matters. But, the Gimmick offenses in college can throw that off a bit like a David Carr.

yep i remember you putting that together lee. If i remember correctly a QBs completion percentage from college to the NFL almost never went up more than 2-3%. I think there were a couple of outliers, but almost everyone was pretty much the same.

 

[AZ_]

Tying completion percentage to accuracy is a commonly misused as an evaluation measure for accuracy.

There just isn't much to suggest this to be the case. I'd liken it to using Wins as a metric for a pitchers overall season. It's dependent on so much beyond ability, that it leaves you with no answers.

Cam Newton, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Mariota are just a few examples of completion percentage going down at the next level. It doesn't make them less effective.

Take him out of a mediocre offensive system at Tennessee and into an NFL offense, you would be focused on improvement in a completely different offensive system.

I just don't see how that data proves anything.

 

[Lee]

What does your stat say about Dak? While he can be an outlier in this, I still do remember him being knocked about his accuracy during draft season.

As per @Pick6 Said, he is completing about the same as in college. 66.2 senior year, 67.9 now. That actually proves my point to a degree.

Early on he wasnt accurate, but Miss St runs a pro offense and accuracy typically carries over. I think the knock is because he was being compared to other running QB's in a Gimmick offense like a Texas A&M.

Personally he was my 2nd favorite QB in the draft on a metric stand point. But these systems are flawed like anything.

I told Drew Brees to his face (we knew each other pretty good in college) that I didnt think he would be a very good pro QB. I thought Tiller's spread wouldnt relate well to the pros and he was just to under sized to stand up to the beating of a pro defense. Now his career is not complete, but my guess is I might have been wrong on that one, lol.

 

[Lee]

yep i remember you putting that together lee. If i remember correctly a QBs completion percentage from college to the NFL almost never went up more than 2-3%. I think there were a couple of outliers, but almost everyone was pretty much the same.

Yes, thats what it ended up being, i think i pulled all QB's from 4 drafts. The biggest outlier where qb's who ran spread offenses.

I mentioned Brees, I think the reason he ended up doing so well is he ended up in one of the few places that ran a spread offense similar to what he ran in college. Quite simply he is the perfect QB for Payton and Payton is the perfect Coach/OC for Brees.

 

[MoFlo]

SBNation:

1. Cleveland Browns — Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Garrett is the top prospect in next year’s draft, and a player the Browns need. But would Cleveland entertain offers for the top spot?

11. Cleveland Browns (via Philadelphia Eagles) — Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Trubisky’s mom recently told the local newspaper her son is scheduled to graduate this month, and will announce his pro decision after the Tar Heels’ bowl game. For some reason, I think he’ll go pro despite starting just one season. He’s the choice for Cleveland over Watson because he’s more of a traditional thrower with a bigger body. It’s only a bonus that Trubisky played high school football a bit outside Cleveland. A potential good thing happening for the Browns? Who said mock drafts have to be wholly realistic?

Brugler:

1. Cleveland Browns
Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M: The Browns have needs all over the roster and unless they fall in love with a quarterback, this pick needs to be the best talent in the draft, which is Garrett.


9.

Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia)
Jamal Adams, SS, LSU: The Browns' secondary has been routinely torched this season with upgrades needed across the board. Adams is a do-it-all safety who will quickly become one of the best players on the Cleveland roster.

 

[Soda]

@MoFlo saw that Rob Rang at CBS had Trubisky & Reuben Foster yesterday.

 

[Spectre]

Trubisky’s mom recently told the local newspaper her son is scheduled to graduate this month, and will announce his pro decision after the Tar Heels’ bowl game.

This is the first I've seen this... that would be awesome because it means he's Senior Bowl eligible as a graduated redshirt junior.

Would be a fantastic scouting opportunity if he went and got put on our roster (assuming we're not dumb enough to decline the offer to coach it).

 

[AZ_]

This is the first I've seen this... that would be awesome because it means he's Senior Bowl eligible as a graduated redshirt junior.

Would be a fantastic scouting opportunity if he went and got put on our roster (assuming we're not dumb enough to decline the offer to coach it).

Great point and absolutely major for his draft stock, should he choose to go.

 

[CBBI]

Today's Two-Round Mock from Matt Miller of Bleacher Report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-scouting-notebook-updated-2-round-mock-draft

1. DE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
9. QB DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
33. CB Sidney Jones, Washington
45. EDGE Carl Lawson, Auburn

I don't love Kizer at 9, but I at least understand the rationale behind getting a young QB in here even if I don't agree with the pick.

Going off Miller's mock, instead of Jones and Lawson, I'd probably take Cordrea Tankersley at 33 and Budda Baker at 45.

 

[AZ_]

I'd probably take literally anyone else at 9.

 

[CBBI]

I'd probably take literally anyone else at 9.

Considering Miller has guys I'd be very interested in at 9 going 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 8 - I'd just double down on pass rush and take Derek Barnett in that scenario.