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2021 Cleveland Indians Predictions

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jup

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Team ERA, over/under this year.

If we set the break point at 3.75, I will take the over.
If we set the break point at 4.0, I will still take the over.

Team batting avg., over/under this year

If we set the break point at .255, I will take the under
If we set it the break point at .245 I will take the over
 
Rookie of the year candidate - Andres Gimenez (top ten finish)
Cy Biebs - 3rd place

Team finish - 3rd in central, miss the playoffs - 83 wins
 
It is that time - predictions we can all look back on and weep :conf (9):
 
Berto traded at the deadline
JRam's option picked up and traded in the off season.
 
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I started to say I'll take the over on the team ERA, but I was thinking more along the SP lines. This BP is filthy and I think the team ERA will be under 4.00.

The BA isn't as clear to me. I think they'll hover around 250, but they won't score many runs and we'll be looking up at a lot of teams in the offensive standings.

I don't think Berto is going anywhere, and actually signs an extension. He's too vital to the success of this young pitching staff.

3rd place in the AL Central sounds about right to me for this current roster. If they make a move or 2, and they have the means to do so, then they could be in contention.

If they're out of contention by the AS break then JRam will be dealt for a haul. If they're in it past the break then it will wait until the offseason, unless they extend him. I don't think that is likely to happen because they haven't done anything to inspire the casual fans to come to the ballpark. Lindor exiting is going to put a big dent in the already meager attendance.
 
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I'm going to be Captain Obvious here, at least for the first one.

1. The offensive production from all three outfield positions, first base, and catcher will increase significantly over last year. (Duh) Also DH - I'm banking on Franmil to bust out and exceed his .795 OPS from last year. That's six of the nine positions will see more production. Overall the Indians will move up from 13th in the A.L. in runs scored to around 5th.

2. Jake Bauers will be NFL as the starting first baseman. He'll be replaced by Bradley and later by a Chang/Naylor platoon. Sorry, I'm still not buying Bobby Bradley, the fat or the skinny one. Hope I'm wrong.

3. Bieber and Plesac will regress from last year. Bieber's ERA will be closer to the 3.28 of 2019 than the 1.63 of last year's 12-start sprint. Plesac will be similar to 2019's 3.81, not the 2.28 of last year. Civale will be in the 4.00 area. Allen will be the next Plesac. McKenzie will disappoint and the Indians will struggle all season to find a #5 starter with Quantrill, Hentges, and maybe even Morgan getting trials.

4. The bullpen will not be as strong at closer (Hand had a career year) but will be deeper. Cimber, Hill, and Leone were pretty bad. Perez will be replaced by Nelson or Sandlin at some point. Shaw will contend for Comeback Player of the Year.

5. At some point Francona will put Ahmed Rosario in center field and just live with his defense until it improves. We won't see Zimmer or Mercado all season.

6. Cesar Hernandez will be moved in July following a bidding war for his services and Owen Miller will step in at 2B after wrecking the International League. Eddie Rosario could also be moved and replaced by Daniel Johnson as the third place Tribe looks to get a head start on 2022 while continuing to augment the already strong farm system.

7. The Indians will win 90 and finish third. Gimenez and Allen will have solid rookie seasons. Clase will establish himself as the Closer of the Future. Stephan will stick around all year and become a Tribe property. Karinchak will lead all major league relievers in both strikeouts and walks. The Wild Thing lives.

8. Having been born after 1948, I will go to my grave never having seen the Cleveland Indians win a World Series. But the franchise, whatever it's called starting next year, has talented young starting pitching, some great arms in the pen, one of the top farm systems in the game, and the "pitching factory" of instructors that have proven they know how to develop young arms. They'll also get a haul of prospects for Jose Ramirez at some point. The future looks bright, although it may not be in Cleveland and it won't be as the Indians.

This will be a most interesting season as I can see the potential for a much different lineup later in the year than what we start with.
 
Make sure you guys don't forget to do my prediction thread since it has a gift card attached to it!!!! Winner gets an amazon gift card lol

Team ERA under 4 above 3.75 though
Team AVG under .245
Rookie of the Year- Clase since Gimenez isn't under rookie status anymore
Both Bieber and Plesac get Cy Young noms, neither win it.
Team finish, 90 wins- wild card berth
We buy not sell at the trade deadline. I think Haniger to help the OF offense.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
I'm going to be Captain Obvious here, at least for the first one.

1. The offensive production from all three outfield positions, first base, and catcher will increase significantly over last year. (Duh) Also DH - I'm banking on Franmil to bust out and exceed his .795 OPS from last year. That's six of the nine positions will see more production. Overall the Indians will move up from 13th in the A.L. in runs scored to around 5th.

2. Jake Bauers will be NFL as the starting first baseman. He'll be replaced by Bradley and later by a Chang/Naylor platoon. Sorry, I'm still not buying Bobby Bradley, the fat or the skinny one. Hope I'm wrong.

3. Bieber and Plesac will regress from last year. Bieber's ERA will be closer to the 3.28 of 2019 than the 1.63 of last year's 12-start sprint. Plesac will be similar to 2019's 3.81, not the 2.28 of last year. Civale will be in the 4.00 area. Allen will be the next Plesac. McKenzie will disappoint and the Indians will struggle all season to find a #5 starter with Quantrill, Hentges, and maybe even Morgan getting trials.

4. The bullpen will not be as strong at closer (Hand had a career year) but will be deeper. Cimber, Hill, and Leone were pretty bad. Perez will be replaced by Nelson or Sandlin at some point. Shaw will contend for Comeback Player of the Year.

5. At some point Francona will put Ahmed Rosario in center field and just live with his defense until it improves. We won't see Zimmer or Mercado all season.

6. Cesar Hernandez will be moved in July following a bidding war for his services and Owen Miller will step in at 2B after wrecking the International League. Eddie Rosario could also be moved and replaced by Daniel Johnson as the third place Tribe looks to get a head start on 2022 while continuing to augment the already strong farm system.

7. The Indians will win 90 and finish third. Gimenez and Allen will have solid rookie seasons. Clase will establish himself as the Closer of the Future. Stephan will stick around all year and become a Tribe property. Karinchak will lead all major league relievers in both strikeouts and walks. The Wild Thing lives.

8. Having been born after 1948, I will go to my grave never having seen the Cleveland Indians win a World Series. But the franchise, whatever it's called starting next year, has talented young starting pitching, some great arms in the pen, one of the top farm systems in the game, and the "pitching factory" of instructors that have proven they know how to develop young arms. They'll also get a haul of prospects for Jose Ramirez at some point. The future looks bright, although it may not be in Cleveland and it won't be as the Indians.

This will be a most interesting season as I can see the potential for a much different lineup later in the year than what we start with.
Click to expand...

I've stayed out of this Bauers v Bradley thing. While I think Bradley would put up better numbers than Bauers, that doesn't mean I think Bradley will be good. His BB/SO ratio is just looking really bad, and the pitching he has faced sits between high A and AA. I'd guess he would be in the lower .700 OPS range, which would be better than I think Bauers can produce, but that clearly is not 'the answer' for first base long term.
 
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I will throw out another reminder to also make predictions in the @sportscoach thread, just a few clicks away.

How decidedly "Old School" of @jup with his ERA and Batting Average -- No total amount of sticky stuff applied, spin rates or exit velocities?1? :shame222::vio (30):

...but of course, I will play.

ERA -- Bullpen drags them under 4
BA -- over .250 (probably .252)
ROY -- Classe gets a few votes
CY -- Top 5 finish for Biebs
MVP -- Top 3 finish for JRam
Team -- 88-74 ...get a Wild Card....White Sox pitching disappoints and they end up third
Buyers at the deadline, but nothing super splashy
Nolan Jones does not get 100 AB in the bigs (do not really need him this season)
Amed sticks in CF
 
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Wham with the Right Hand said:
3. Bieber and Plesac will regress from last year. Bieber's ERA will be closer to the 3.28 of 2019 than the 1.63 of last year's 12-start sprint. Plesac will be similar to 2019's 3.81, not the 2.28 of last year. Civale will be in the 4.00 area. Allen will be the next Plesac. McKenzie will disappoint and the Indians will struggle all season to find a #5 starter with Quantrill, Hentges, and maybe even Morgan getting trials.

4. The bullpen will not be as strong at closer (Hand had a career year) but will be deeper. Cimber, Hill, and Leone were pretty bad. Perez will be replaced by Nelson or Sandlin at some point. Shaw will contend for Comeback Player of the Year.
Click to expand...
Ouch on the starters.

I have thought we would see regression towards the 3.5 ERA level on Bieb's for a couple years, but it hasn't happened yet. And watching him pitch this Sat., and seeing his CB live, I am not sure we will see that much regression in '21. But your 3.25 area might be close.

But Plesac and Civale could easily end up high 3's to low 4's.

Bullpen is pretty much the Captain Obvious group for this team. For several years they hadn't had a reliever that could push 95 regularly, now they have some triple digit guys. The Bullpen will be much improved in power arms and K's but will sport more walks. Overall it will be the gem of the team.
 
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LL3 said:
I will throw out another reminder to also make predictions in the @sportscoach thread, just a few clicks away.

How decidedly "Old School" of @jup with his ERA and Batting Average -- No total amount of sticky stuff applied, spin rates or exit velocities?1? :shame222::vio (30):

...but of course, I will play.

ERA -- Bullpen drags them under 4
BA -- over .250 (probably .252)
ROY -- Classe gets a few votes
CY -- Top 5 finish for Biebs
MVP -- Top 3 finish for JRam
Team -- 89-73 ...get a Wild Card....White Sox pitching disappoints and they end up third
Buyers at the deadline, but nothing super splashy
Nolan Jones does not get 100 AB in the bigs (do not really need him this season)
Amed sticks in CF
Click to expand...
Haven't got a count on the packages of stickie arriving at the docks in Cleveland yet, when I do LL3 I'll get you an update. :toast:
 
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