2021 Cleveland Indians Predictions

[CATS44]

The Indians offense will be improved this season, if only by default. The pen will be volatile at times, but over 162 games one of the top ten in baseball...with a chance at top five. The rotation may be shaky early, but will be strong in the middle of the season. The question will come in the last six weeks. We will use 10-12 starters, and our depth starters will be better than the others in the division.

As usual, injuries will dictate the final standings. Assuming that our key players/pitchers stay healthy...if Chicago and Minnesota have health issues, we will win the division. If either stay fairly healthy, we will not. Their 26 man rosters are better. Our top 45 are better.

Chicago has already lost Eloy Jimenez, and are turning others into pretzels to cover it up. Its a much bigger loss than we are imagining.

Going thru our lineup individually....

Catcher will improve significantly.
DH will improve significantly.
1B will at least maintain.
2B will maintain.
SS will decline somewhat.
3B will maintain.
RF will improve significantly.
CF will improve significantly.
LF will improve somewhat.

There is gonna be some shuffling of the entire roster. As such a young team, patience will be an even bigger necessity than normal. Fans will want instant results or instant changes, which is not a good way to run a baseball team. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Tito will manage for the entire season, not just for a week, or a game, or even an inning. He is very good at it.

Although there will be more volatility than usual, the usual plan...which has been so successful...will be followed. 40 games to sort out the roster. 40 games to see where the team stands. Assessment of whether the needs can be filled in house or from outside. If the team is in contention, a trade for a significant upgrade. Then either a stretch run or the beginning of tryouts for next year.

IMO the team will win 86 games, plus or minus five. If everything goes right, it could win 91. If everything goes wrong, it's a .500 team.

 

[Benway]

I figure that question marks fail two-thirds of the time. I've done no research to back this up; it's merely a lazy estimation tool I use. The key then, I guess, is to have at least two back-up question marks for every starting or high leverage question mark. We have at least 7 question marks in starting/high leverage roles. (It's purely a subjective claim)

The more question marks a team fields, the closer they get to .400 baseball.

On the other hand, we can expect about 2 pleasant surprises, with a couple more mid-season pleasant additions.

Predictions for this year's team should skew heavily toward pessimism, especially early on. I expect at least 5 major disappointments right off the bat. How far behind we fall and how quickly we adjust our personnel should be the variables which define any success we may have.

There, I've lowered my expectations. Now I can enjoy my team!

 

[Alabuckeye]

I think 80 wins is achievable for what we have. So, I'm starting at .500. Assuming the pitching is solid as we think it is, ANY hitting could take us to 81-85 wins. Significant hitting improvements would take us to upper 80's in wins.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think we start with last year's team which had a winning percentage of .583 which corresponds to 94.5 wins over a normal season. That team went 35-25 despite one of worst hitting outfields in baseball history, a first baseman who hit .199, a catcher who hit .165 and his three backups hit a combined .111. We also had three crappy relievers in Cimber, Leone, and Hill. Lindor had the worst season of his career at .258/.750 and his numbers with runners on base were far worse. They finally had to move him out of the #3 spot because he was a serial rally killer.

There's no possible way the offense can't be much improved. They won't finish 13 of 15 in runs scored again. There are multiple options at every position in case the guy they start the season with can't cut it. For example, first base. Bauers, Bradley, Naylor, Chang, Nolan Jones. Start with Bauers and work your way down. At some point you'll find somebody who can hit better than Santana last year.

So if the pitching and defense stay the same and the offense improves this team will win more than 95 games.

I expect the starting pitching will fall off as McKenzie and Allen replace Carrasco and Clevinger/Plutko/Quantrill. Also, Bieber and Plesac won't be able to replicate their ridiculously low ERA's. The question is how far the starting pitching will fall and whether a (hopefully) better bullpen can pick up the slack so the overall number of runs allowed is consistent with last year.

Also the schedule will change since the Tribe did not play the A.L. East and West last year. No Yankees, Rays, Astros, A's last year....but no Orioles or Rangers, either. The Royals and Tigers are not the doormats they used to be where you could count on going 13-6 or better.

I guess the optimistic view would be 94-98 wins if the pitching stays the same and the offense improves. That would be with no major injuries and everybody has a solid year. The pessimistic view would be 81-84 wins, IMO, and the realistic view is in the high 80's or low 90's.

One thing that should help the Indians is they have a young team, especially the pitching, except for Perez and Shaw, who only throw an inning at a time. Young pitchers tend to get hurt less (at least IMO) and you don't see sudden drop-offs in effectiveness you sometimes see in ptichers in their 30's. Same with the positon players. Heck, Nelson Cruz turns 41 in July. Is he really going to put up another .992 OPS?

 

[bushwick_bill]

They win the whole fucking thing.

 

[PIP]

I really like a lot of the pieces on this team...I don’t think anyone improves upon last season. Definitely feel like everyone will take at least 2 steps back, if not more. No awards for any players.

Definitely feeling pretty good about them...Last
place finish for sure..

39-123 (Indians Fever?)

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

The Indians offense will be improved this season, if only by default. The pen will be volatile at times, but over 162 games one of the top ten in baseball...with a chance at top five. The rotation may be shaky early, but will be strong in the middle of the season. The question will come in the last six weeks. We will use 10-12 starters, and our depth starters will be better than the others in the division.

As usual, injuries will dictate the final standings. Assuming that our key players/pitchers stay healthy...if Chicago and Minnesota have health issues, we will win the division. If either stay fairly healthy, we will not. Their 26 man rosters are better. Our top 45 are better.

Chicago has already lost Eloy Jimenez, and are turning others into pretzels to cover it up. Its a much bigger loss than we are imagining.

Going thru our lineup individually....

Catcher will improve significantly.
DH will improve significantly.
1B will at least maintain.
2B will maintain.
SS will decline somewhat.
3B will maintain.
RF will improve significantly.
CF will improve significantly.
LF will improve somewhat.

There is gonna be some shuffling of the entire roster. As such a young team, patience will be an even bigger necessity than normal. Fans will want instant results or instant changes, which is not a good way to run a baseball team. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Tito will manage for the entire season, not just for a week, or a game, or even an inning. He is very good at it.

Although there will be more volatility than usual, the usual plan...which has been so successful...will be followed. 40 games to sort out the roster. 40 games to see where the team stands. Assessment of whether the needs can be filled in house or from outside. If the team is in contention, a trade for a significant upgrade. Then either a stretch run or the beginning of tryouts for next year.

IMO the team will win 86 games, plus or minus five. If everything goes right, it could win 91. If everything goes wrong, it's a .500 team.

Going by improvements at SS from 2020 to 2021, Lindor only had a 1.2 WAR in 60 games vs 1.0 WAR in 49 games for Gimenez. If Gimenez can at least repeat 2020 numbers, I'd say it's basically a wash. Also, if Rosario can capitalize on his Jake numbers, that very well may be a massive upgrade in LF considering the crap we got from LF, let alone the entire OF, in 2020.

Nit picking done.

 

[Criznit]

Somewhere between 80-90 wins so I guess 88. If we can scrounge up some offense we might be looking pretty good. A little unknown on both sides of the ball, some early wins would be a real boost.

Central is pretty damn competitive now.

 

[Ohio]

Tribe will be better than last year and will go further than last year.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Most of the writers and FanGraphs are on the pessimistic side. They are trying to wrap their heads around the fact that in the last couple of years the Indians have lost Kluber, Bauer, Clevinger, Carrasco, Hand, Lindor and Santana. We apparently have Jake Bauers playing first base, Josh Naylor and his .249/.692 career line in right field, and either Luplow, Gamel, or Amed Rosario in center. We have a 22-year-old shortstop. The White Sox look awesome and the Twins are always good.

So there are a lot of pessimistic predictions out there.

I'm actually fairly optimistic simply because there's no way the offense can be as bad as last year, or even close.

The Indians used nine outfielders last year and they hit a combined .194 (118-for-609) with 11 homers. Four of them are no longer with the team -- Tyler Naquin, Delino DeShields, Domingo Santana and Greg Allen. - Paul Hoynes

There is no way the outfield production won't increase significantly with some combination of Eddie Rosario, Amed Rosario, Naylor, Luplow (verus lefties), Gamel, and possibly Daniel Johnson replacing that crew from last year. There is also the possibility that Mercado finds the batting stroke he had in 2019 when he had an OPS of .761 in 438 at-bats.

[Franmil Reyes] batted .312 with runners on base, but went 3-for-23 (.130) with runners in scoring position and two out. - Joe Noga

I'm expecting El Mole to bounce back this year with RISP and two out.

[Lindor] batted just .167 with runners in scoring position (14 strikeouts in 60 at-bats). - Noga

Not only did Lindor hit .258/.750, but he was horrible in his most important at-bats to the point where they moved him out of the #3 spot because he was killing rallies. We won't miss his bat. IMO he hurt the Indians more than helped them at the plate last year. Gimenez may actually improve the offense if he just hits the same as he did last year. Lindor admitted he stopped working out last year and lost some of his conditioning.

In his last 60 plate appearances of the regular season, [Lindor] batted .188.

That's what happens when you throw in the towel. And we were battling for a playoff spot right down to the final week. WTF Francisco???

Indians catchers hit .138 for the 2020 season which is the lowest in baseball history according to the ESPN announcing crew in the playoffs. The next lowest was .159. The next lowest in 2020 was .172. The wRC+ was 27. - Pluto

Worst hitting performance in baseball history - by far! Perez was playing with a bum shoulder but it's fine now and he hit very well this spring (.296/.997). He also lost 25 pounds. The catching won't be a black hole in the lineup this season, except when Perez takes a day off.

The Indians were 29-6 when scoring three runs or more, which was the best winning percentage in baseball in that context, but they only scored three runs or more in 35 out of their 60 contests. - Joe Noga

With a much improved offense this year the Indians will not be held to two runs or less in 42% of their games. OK, I don't think they'll win 83% of the time when they score three or more runs like last year, but it should be in the ballpark, like maybe 70% of the time.

Is this still a 94-win team? Probably not because there is likely to be a decline in the starting pitching. No way Beiber and Plesac start 32 games and finish with ERA's of 1.63 and 2.22. I don't see Allen matching Carrasco's 2.91 ERA, although he looked great this spring. McKenzie is a wild card and we have no proven starters after the top five.

The question is whether the improvement in the offense will compensate for the decline in the starting pitching. The bullpen was good but not great last year and we could see an improvement there. The division will be stronger as the Tigers and Royals continue their rebuilds and the White Sox look like World Series contenders. And we have to play the Yankees, Rays, A's, and Astros this year.

I'm always optimistic in the spring. It will take Tito a couple of months to figure out the best lineup and the bullpen roles, but once he does the Tribe should be a pretty good team. Put me down for 92 wins.

I swear, we’re gonna surprise you. I swear. We have something special for you guys. Trust that. - Franmil Reyes, 3/22/21

 

[BimboColesHair]

84-78.

They'll have themselves in a position where a streak in the last couple of weeks could get them in a Wild Card spot.

Bieber takes a slight step back statistically, as does Plesac (both look similar statistically to their 2019 versions). Civale takes a step forward, and Allen impresses. Bold prediction, wins and ERA leader is Allen (for those old school stat fans).

Bullpen takes a small step forward. Bold prediction is Perez doesn't last the entire season with the team and we see either Hentges or Gose take his spot and the bullpen rises to a different level.

Offense improves as a whole (hard not to) with Naylor breaking out and establishing himself as an every day bat. Bold prediction, someone establishes themselves at 1B and CF by July.

Indians have 3 All-Stars. Bieber, Karinchak, & Jose.

Top 5 prospects by seasons end, in order: Espino, Freeman, Jones, Arias, and Naylor with Valera, Bracho, Hankins, Rocchio, and Torres rounding out the remainder of the to 10 in some order. Unanimous top 5 farm in baseball.

Arias and Jones both debut in 2021.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

I look forward to every new season, but I am very pessimistic on the 2021 team record. I see them finishing about 76-86. Outside of Bieber, I am not sold on the strength of the rotation. I do think at least 1 guy will emerge from the pack as a rotation keeper to join him but I also expect that 3 of the spots will be a wild roller coaster ride all season and when they get 6 or 7 deep, the upside options are too thin. The bullpen concerns me. I think Clase is going to be real good. Karinchak is worrying me a lot. He seems to be a bit nuts even when pitching great and I fear that the worse he pitches the more difficult it will be for him to emotionally deal with it. On offense, I don't see nearly enough run production to be competitive without an elite staff. I expect Jose to be moved for a huge package of guys near the trade deadline and the team to start giving guys like Bradley and Johnson a chance. In the long run that will be a good thing. In the short term, this season will be pretty messy.

 

[DCTribefan]

79-83

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I'll say 81-81. The Indians seem to be better as a team than the sum of the parts. I think that's due to future HOF manager Terry Francona. I swear he could coach the Washington Generals to a competitive game.
I think the Indians have above average SP. But not as consistent as the past. They will probably need about 7 starters this season, so depth will be tested.
In the pen, I have never seen a collection of flame throwers like this. They will miss a lot of bats. But they can miss the zone too. But I will call the pen a strength.
Offensively I think we will be challenged at 1B, RF, C, and probably CF.
I think Rosario will eventually take over full time in CF. But I don't think Tito will put him out there regularly until he works and shows he can handle it.

 

[DCTribefan]

I look forward to every new season, but I am very pessimistic on the 2021 team record. I see them finishing about 76-86. Outside of Bieber, I am not sold on the strength of the rotation. I do think at least 1 guy will emerge from the pack as a rotation keeper to join him but I also expect that 3 of the spots will be a wild roller coaster ride all season and when they get 6 or 7 deep, the upside options are too thin. The bullpen concerns me. I think Clase is going to be real good. Karinchak is worrying me a lot. He seems to be a bit nuts even when pitching great and I fear that the worse he pitches the more difficult it will be for him to emotionally deal with it. On offense, I don't see nearly enough run production to be competitive without an elite staff. I expect Jose to be moved for a huge package of guys near the trade deadline and the team to start giving guys like Bradley and Johnson a chance. In the long run that will be a good thing. In the short term, this season will be pretty messy.

You obviously hit Gson’s sweet spot with the Jose Ramirez trade idea.