Are the 2009 Orlando Magic the Godfathers of today’s modern offense?

[foucault87]

Why does everyone hate threes and dunks so much? Guys are well rounded now, even bigs. Especially bigs. Talent is deeper than ever.

When I go back and watch late 80s and 90s basketball where it was all mid range shooting guards and post-up centers, it was really clogged up basketball. It was not basketball in its final form. Then that stretch of late 90s- early 00s basketball led by AI, Kobe, Fat Shaq, Garnett was absolutely putrid.

Guys are starting to shoot mid-range again. And bigs are flashing some post game.

I think bball is great.

Dunks were more hype back then. Everyone just does soft baby layins. You do get the occasional poster, but I want guys doing windmills in traffic. Bring back the VC, young Bron, Gerald Wallace, Baron Davis drive games. Or even for you old heads, Harold Miner.

The modern game is terrible. Everyone shoots open 3s. No skill involved unless DDR is out there. I want my offense to be a forward jabstepping 69 times and then shooting a fade away 2 a foot inside the line. Or my guard doing his best to dig a hole in the court by pounding the ball for 22 seconds. That is the hype offense.


In all seriousness, I do think we need some rule changes to encourage more post play, slightly reduce the impact of the 3, outlaw James harden drives, and allow some real physical defense

 

[The Oi]

I think the game is changing organically.

Jokic and SGA are making mid-range cool again for bigs and guards respectively.

I think every year you will see more players using the post game and mid-range because of those two.

 

[cavsfever]

I generally like the modern game but I do think the three point shot is getting out of control and negatively affecting the diversity of the offensive game. I’d like to see the three point line moved out moderately and the corner three eliminated in order to rebalance things

 

[foucault87]

I think the game is changing organically.

Jokic and SGA are making mid-range cool again for bigs and guards respectively.

I think every year you will see more players using the post game and mid-range because of those two.

Post up Okoro. I am ready for it

 

[cavsfever]

I think the game is changing organically.

Jokic and SGA are making mid-range cool again for bigs and guards respectively.

I think every year you will see more players using the post game and mid-range because of those two.

Jokic is just an absolutely historic freak who is insanely talented - can’t generalize from him. Watch a typical game and you can see how the logic of the three pointer is inexorably taking over the game. Last year three point attempts were 39% of all field goal attempts. Ten years ago they were 24%. What is the game going to look like when half or more of all shots are three pointers? It’s coming.

 

[The Oi]

Jokic is just an absolutely historic freak who is insanely talented - can’t generalize from him. Watch a typical game and you can see how the logic of the three pointer is inexorably taking over the game. Last year three point attempts were 39% of all field goal attempts. Ten years ago they were 24%. What is the game going to look like when half or more of all shots are three pointers? It’s coming.

Jordan was a freak too. So is Steph.

Both had massive impacts on the game.

Jordan is why shoes are what they are and why a whole generation of players played the way they do. Steph is why this generation of kids shoots the way they do.

Outliers always have a big impact because the next generation notices them and wants to be like them.

Why can’t I generalize from Jokic? His game is very teachable and accessible. Euros already play like him. He’s just better. What I’m telling you is that there are going to be more players who do what he does, obviously not as well.

 

[The Oi]

I understand variety is more interesting.

But stopping teams from shooting threes inorganically using new rules is silly. If it’s the best, most efficient shot on the floor, then teams are going to take it.

It’s a positive that teams are skilled enough to make the shot. We’re here to watch the most skilled players in the world right?

The best thing that can happen is teams learn to defend the shot better or marketable players hit more mid-range shots.

Both of those things will happen over time.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Why can’t I generalize from Jokic? His game is very teachable and accessible. Euros already play like him. He’s just better. What I’m telling you is that there are going to be more players who do what he does, obviously not as well.

The reason Jokic' game works is precisely because he's so good at it. The other Euros who play like that but aren't as good are still in Europe for a reason.

Jokic reminds me a lot of Larry Bird in that they both are considered "unathletic", but in fact are ridiculously athletic once you recognize that hand-eye coordination is a type of (unteachable) athleticism as well.

 

[cavsfever]

I understand variety is more interesting.

But stopping teams from shooting threes inorganically using new rules is silly. If it’s the best, most efficient shot on the floor, then teams are going to take it.

It’s a positive that teams are skilled enough to make the shot. We’re here to watch the most skilled players in the world right?

The best thing that can happen is teams learn to defend the shot better or marketable players hit more mid-range shots.

Both of those things will happen over time.

It makes no sense to criticize addressing the three point shot by changing rules as “inorganic”. There is nothing “organic” about where the three point line is. It was a totally arbitrary decision made by changing rules in the past. What makes it so efficient and the “best shot on the floor” is how easy it is to hit from the current distances, which were set by an arbitrary and “inorganic” decision once upon a time.

To match the expected points of a 36% three point shot - the league average - you have to shoot 54% from midrange. Very very few players will ever get anywhere close to that. The league averages for 3-10 foot shots and 10-16 foot shots are only about 45% each. SGA can’t hit 50% shooting between 3 feet out and the three point line.

 

[The Oi]

It makes no sense to criticize addressing the three point shot by changing rules as “inorganic”. There is nothing “organic” about where the three point line is. It was a totally arbitrary decision made by changing rules in the past. What makes it so efficient and the “best shot on the floor” is how easy it is to hit from the current distances, which were set by an arbitrary and “inorganic” decision once upon a time.

To match the expected points of a 36% three point shot - the league average - you have to shoot 54% from midrange. Very very few players will ever get anywhere close to that. The league averages for 3-10 foot shots and 10-16 foot shots are only about 45% each. SGA can’t hit 50% shooting between 3 feet out and the three point line.

That’s a good argument.

 

[cavsfever]

That’s a good argument.

This must be sarcastic no one ever admits this on the internet

 

[The Oi]

This must be sarcastic no one ever admits this on the internet

I’ve noticed.

Only so much time in the day though, right? When someone absolutely nails an argument like you did, I’d rather just give them credit than make up some bullshit and stretch things out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sometimes you take your lumps, shake hands, and move on.

 

[Dr No]

It makes no sense to criticize addressing the three point shot by changing rules as “inorganic”. There is nothing “organic” about where the three point line is. It was a totally arbitrary decision made by changing rules in the past. What makes it so efficient and the “best shot on the floor” is how easy it is to hit from the current distances, which were set by an arbitrary and “inorganic” decision once upon a time.

To match the expected points of a 36% three point shot - the league average - you have to shoot 54% from midrange. Very very few players will ever get anywhere close to that. The league averages for 3-10 foot shots and 10-16 foot shots are only about 45% each. SGA can’t hit 50% shooting between 3 feet out and the three point line.

The game will usually adjust over time, but right now the 3 point line is king. The types of players drafted and developed will change. The schemes will change. The rules will get tweaked. Eventually someone is going to figure out how to defend the 3-point line at a high level. When they do, it may mean a revival of the post game or it may mean the development of guys who can nail 12-17 footers in their sleep. But, right now, its about making the 3.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

The game will usually adjust over time, but right now the 3 point line is king. The types of players drafted and developed will change. The schemes will change. The rules will get tweaked. Eventually someone is going to figure out how to defend the 3-point line at a high level. When they do, it may mean a revival of the post game or it may mean the development of guys who can nail 12-17 footers in their sleep. But, right now, its about making the 3.

I think it's all dependent on the bolded. What we've been seeing for the last 40+ years is the adjustment to the introduction of the three point shot at its current distances. There isn't a solution of "defending the line better" because there are some speed/distance/coverage issues that put a ceiling on the ability to do that. Shooting the three just has such a high expected value that it is going to remain the dominant factor in NBA offenses. If anything, it will become even more so as the emphasis on the three-point shot becomes even more entrenched at lower levels of basketball.

 

[cavsfever]

The game will usually adjust over time, but right now the 3 point line is king. The types of players drafted and developed will change. The schemes will change. The rules will get tweaked. Eventually someone is going to figure out how to defend the 3-point line at a high level. When they do, it may mean a revival of the post game or it may mean the development of guys who can nail 12-17 footers in their sleep. But, right now, its about making the 3.

I just don’t think it’s possible for the game to “organically” adjust out of the current three point dominance as long as the line stays where it is. Three point shots just have a higher payoff than midrange shots ever could. The only players I have ever found who exceeded 54% (the break even efficiency you have to shoot to make a two point midrange equal to a league average three) for a season for shots between 3 feet out and the three point line are Kevin Durant and Chris Paul, and even they only did it for two or three seasons in their entire career. There will never be a critical mass of guys capable of that, while at least half the league can hit that 36% league average from three.

P.s Q-tip just said it better