Cavs Trade w/ Memphis (Speights, Selby, Ellington, and #1 pick for Leuer)

[MikeOC33]

If Oden can actually be healthy, he'd be better than a 2014 first. He was overall #1 pick for a reason.

And it is possible we could do both. Oden with our cap space this year, guaranteed next year, team option 2014

Then something like

Gibson + Casspi + Miles for Okafor (150% rule) and a #1 pick.
Luke for Ariza also works if we need to add incentive to get that pick unprotected (the assumption is this saves washington about $8 million assuming Ariza isn't opting out).

From our end we tie up some money short term, but should still go into 2014 with enough for a max free agent.

imagine a roster that has 8 first round picks from the past 4 drafts, plus a healthy greg oden, possibly still Andy, plus max free agent money heading into 2014 free agency.

It all starts with the first word of your post... "If".

I'm as big a Buckeye fan as any, really liked Oden's game, and it might be worth the gamble to sign him but there hasn't been a whole lot of positive for him the past few years to project he will ever be healthy... not to mention the lost conditioning, timing, and daily practice/game experience....not sure how anyone can expect a lot from him.

A bonus tho is his desire. Same as Z with his foot issues... he kept battling thru the surgeries and rehabs because of his desire to play again... I think Greg has that desire, but the recovery has to be there too.

 

[RonG]

Flawed logic
Injury history is what it is ...

If Oden can actually be healthy, he'd be better than a 2014 first. He was overall #1 pick for a reason.

Kwame Brown (2001 by Washington Wizards)
Michael Olowokandi (1998 by Los Angeles Clippers)
Joe Smith (1995 by Golden State)
Sam Bowie Portland Trail Blazers, 1984
Stromile Swift Vancouver Grizzlies, 2000
Darko Milicic Detroit Pistons, 2003
Adam Morrison –, Charlotte Bobcats, 2006


I mean these guys were all number 1 or 2 picks for a reason

I can find you more if you like.

 

[Pyro]

Nah, I'd rather just point the finger at you for being the outlier. :chuckles:

I can post a picture if you'd like that proves that I still haven't voted...

 

[Jack Brickman]

Flawed logic
Injury history is what it is ...


Kwame Brown (2001 by Washington Wizards)
Michael Olowokandi (1998 by Los Angeles Clippers)
Joe Smith (1995 by Golden State)
Sam Bowie Portland Trail Blazers, 1984
Stromile Swift Vancouver Grizzlies, 2000
Darko Milicic Detroit Pistons, 2003
Adam Morrison –, Charlotte Bobcats, 2006


I mean these guys were all number 1 or 2 picks for a reason

I can find you more if you like.

The difference between Oden and most of those guys that you listed is that Oden didn't bust from a lack of talent. He busted from recurring injuries and having the bad luck of playing for the team with the worst medical staff in the NBA.

Oden is the type of guy you take a flyer on if you can get him for a bargain and your team is in the midst of a rebuild. If he doesn't pan out, big deal. You've got tons of cap space. If he does pan out, you just hit a home run.

 

[dawgpridetosu]

Adam Morrison –, Charlotte Bobcats, 2006


I mean these guys were all number 1 or 2 picks for a reason

I can find you more if you like.

You could start by getting the facts right. In 2006 #1 was Bargnani and #2 was Aldridge. Both panned out. There are a lot more #1 and #2 picks in the 2000s that panned out than those that didn't.

So, I can find more if you like, since your facts are flawed.

 

[Lee]

The difference between Oden and most of those guys that you listed is that Oden didn't bust from a lack of talent. He busted from recurring injuries and having the bad luck of playing for the team with the worst medical staff in the NBA.

Oden is the type of guy you take a flyer on if you can get him for a bargain and your team is in the midst of a rebuild. If he doesn't pan out, big deal. You've got tons of cap space. If he does pan out, you just hit a home run.

If my Aunt had a dick, she would be my Uncle.

You can tell yourself anything you want. The staff was horrible, Oden can comeback, but the fact remains that Oden is done. I feel bad. He has allot of talent.

That said, I would still take the chance and cut another scrub if he is willing to come here on a vet min'ish 2 year contract.

 

[dawgpridetosu]

if he is willing to come here on a vet min'ish 2 year contract.

I'm not sure he'd sign for two years unless the second was a player option. Much more to gain by playing out a 1 year contract, hoping to play well, and score a bigger contract.

 

[Jack Brickman]

If my Aunt had a dick, she would be my Uncle.

You can tell yourself anything you want. The staff was horrible, Oden can comeback, but the fact remains that Oden is done. I feel bad. He has allot of talent.

That said, I would still take the chance and cut another scrub if he is willing to come here on a vet min'ish 2 year contract.

The Portland medical staff was horrible. Have you ever read any of the articles published about them? They made many bad decisions and rushed players back from injuries. They're at least a part of the reason why guys like Oden and Roy aren't playing basketball right now and, for Roy at least, will never been the same.

And I'm not trying to talk myself into Oden coming back and being what he was once promised to be. I'm simply saying it's worth taking a flyer on him. It's low-risk, high-reward, which is exactly the type of gamble a rebuilding team with no real financial concerns should take. If Oden is done, we're out a couple million of Dan Gilbert's dollars (that he doesn't seem to mind throwing around anyway). If he's not, we hit the jackpot.

 

[KI4MVP]

Flawed logic
Injury history is what it is ...


Kwame Brown (2001 by Washington Wizards)
Michael Olowokandi (1998 by Los Angeles Clippers)
Joe Smith (1995 by Golden State)
Sam Bowie Portland Trail Blazers, 1984
Stromile Swift Vancouver Grizzlies, 2000
Darko Milicic Detroit Pistons, 2003
Adam Morrison –, Charlotte Bobcats, 2006


I mean these guys were all number 1 or 2 picks for a reason

I can find you more if you like.

Kwame Brown career high PER: 15.7
Michael Olowokandi career high PER: 12.4
Joe Smith career high PER: 17.2
Sam Bowie carrer high PER: 16.4
Stromile Swift career high PER: 19.2
Darko Milicic career high PER: 15.2
Adam Morrison carrer high PER: 7.9

Oden had a PER of 18.1 his rookie year, which was better than every season of every player you listed except for one year of Stromile Swift and then had 23.1 his second year (and his opponents PER was 12.5). The last game before he got hurt he had 13 points and 20 rebounds. 3 of the 4 recent games before that he had 13/10, 18/8, 24/12. A healthy Oden is a dominant center in this league. He was statistically Portland's best player that year.

We pay Luke Walton more money than it would take to give Oden a shot. Worst case we let him go at the end of next season, best case we have bird rights on a dominant center in 2015.

 

[Biw]

I can post a picture if you'd like that proves that I still haven't voted...

I believe you. Just busting your balls man.

 

[daytripper]

The 2014 Wiggins draft is getting so much hype. It's going to be hella hard to get any team to trade out of that draft. Grant would probably have much better luck acquiring another 2013 pick since the top of this draft is generally considered weak.

The Bulls might be the next logical team to move salary. They are over the luxury line and despite being a 'big market' have never paid the tax before. As Ben mentioned in the other thread Golden State could look to move a salary but like Memphis their 2013 pick has already been traded (w/ lotto protection).

 

[Lee]

I'm not sure he'd sign for two years unless the second was a player option. Much more to gain by playing out a 1 year contract, hoping to play well, and score a bigger contract.

Not wasting our staffs time if he wont sign for 2 years. Nothing to gain for us then.

 

[Lee]

The Portland medical staff was horrible. Have you ever read any of the articles published about them? They made many bad decisions and rushed players back from injuries. They're at least a part of the reason why guys like Oden and Roy aren't playing basketball right now and, for Roy at least, will never been the same.

And I'm not trying to talk myself into Oden coming back and being what he was once promised to be. I'm simply saying it's worth taking a flyer on him. It's low-risk, high-reward, which is exactly the type of gamble a rebuilding team with no real financial concerns should take. If Oden is done, we're out a couple million of Dan Gilbert's dollars (that he doesn't seem to mind throwing around anyway). If he's not, we hit the jackpot.

I do think its worth the risk, but I cant blame Gilbert for saying no since there is about a 10-20% chance he has anything left in the tank. And yes, I get how bad Portland's staff was, but he is still most likely done.

 

[KI4MVP]

3 year contract.
year 1, the rest of this season, we pay him to rehab, the $4 million or so of cap space we have left, I believe we only end up paying half of that.
year 2, next year, $5 million
year 3, team option, $5 million

We have to offer more than contenders like Miami could offer, and paying what may be a little high considering the risk gets us the team option. Having the contract start this year gets us the Bird rights.

This doesn't hurt our flexibility. We have plenty of expiring contracts this year, plenty of cap space next year, and if he fails, he's off the books for 2014 free agency.

 

[KI4MVP]

just thought I'd review his surgury history.

2007 prior to NBA he had micro-fracture surgery right knee - missed a full season, made a full recovery
2009 injured his left knee fractured left patella and missed the rest of the season
Nov 2010 had micro-fracture surgery on left knee
Dec 2011 had a setback in recovery.
Feb 2012 had a second micro-fracture surgery on left knee
May 2012, announced he would skil the 12-13 season to rehab

Here we are nearly a year after the last surgery, right in the time frame for normal recovery. It's possible he will never recover from the damage done in the 2009 injury. It's also possible that he makes a full recovery from the latest micro-fracture surgery in his left knee like he did from the surgery in his right knee. He clearly has enough talent that the upside is worth taking a chance.

Certainly other players have had full recoveries from micro-fracture surgery, such as Jason Kidd.

Cerynik et al reviewed 24 NBA basketball players who underwent microfracture surgery during a nine year period (1997-2006).16 Performance outcomes were evaluated using pre-injury and post-injury statistics. To evaluate performance, the NBA player efficiency rating (PER) was used, computing an index number based on major performance statistics kept by the league. The goal of this study was to create an objective outcome marker versus the reported subjective measures reported in other studies.

Five out of 24 NBA players (21%) were unable to return to competition in the league. Two players (8%) were only able to play for one year after surgery before retiring. The remaining 17 players (71%) were able to play longer than one year.

On average, PER fell 3.5 points the first season after returning to competition. For the 17 players who continued to play two or more seasons after surgery, the average PER reduction decreased to 2.7. For players who returned to competition, the average decrease in minutes played per game the first season after injury was 4.9 minutes. Players who played one season or less demonstrated a decrease of 9.2 minutes per game. Of the 17 players who played two or more years after surgery, the average decrease in minutes played per game was 3.0 minutes.

This study may indicate that athletes who are able to mount a sustained comeback for longer than two years after surgery will return to near their pre-injury levels of playing time and performance.

http://lowerextremityreview.com/article/microfracture-outcomes-in-pro-basketball-players