Cavs Trade w/ Memphis (Speights, Selby, Ellington, and #1 pick for Leuer)

[RonG]

The difference between Oden and most of those guys that you listed is that Oden didn't bust from a lack of talent. He busted from recurring injuries and having the bad luck of playing for the team with the worst medical staff in the NBA.

Oden is the type of guy you take a flyer on if you can get him for a bargain and your team is in the midst of a rebuild. If he doesn't pan out, big deal. You've got tons of cap space. If he does pan out, you just hit a home run.

I am not against a 2 year deal I am just saying the logic he used was flawed

You could start by getting the facts right. In 2006 #1 was Bargnani and #2 was Aldridge. Both panned out. There are a lot more #1 and #2 picks in the 2000s that panned out than those that didn't.

So, I can find more if you like, since your facts are flawed.

I said his logic was flawed not facts, getting snarky doesn't make your point any better, there were known medical questions about him before he was drafted. A bust is a bust, look at Sam who lied about his leg pain to get drafted. My point was qualifying your point by saying he was the number 1 pic or even a top pick when he was drafted doesn't mean shit if he busted because of talent or health. Let me know if I need to say that slower for you.

Kwame Brown career high PER: 15.7
Michael Olowokandi career high PER: 12.4
Joe Smith career high PER: 17.2
Sam Bowie carrer high PER: 16.4
Stromile Swift career high PER: 19.2
Darko Milicic career high PER: 15.2
Adam Morrison carrer high PER: 7.9

Oden had a PER of 18.1 his rookie year, which was better than every season of every player you listed except for one year of Stromile Swift and then had 23.1 his second year (and his opponents PER was 12.5). The last game before he got hurt he had 13 points and 20 rebounds. 3 of the 4 recent games before that he had 13/10, 18/8, 24/12. A healthy Oden is a dominant center in this league. He was statistically Portland's best player that year.

We pay Luke Walton more money than it would take to give Oden a shot. Worst case we let him go at the end of next season, best case we have bird rights on a dominant center in 2015.

Again I am not against a flyer but was pointing out the logic that he was a top pick really has little to zero to do with it. He is a huge, HUGE medical risk. Cheap I don't see an issue with but giving a guy 5 or 6 million a year seems silly if he won't hit the floor. The Luke Walton point is completely unrelated because he was traded for to make a deal work to get a possible 1st, his expiring deal this year is worth more than all the basket and rebounds he has put up in his almost 2 years here.

 

[Jon]

What we need and none of us have access to is a medical assessment of Greg. A lot of people wrote Zydrunas off after all his foot surgeries, but once he got them replaced with 50lb bionic implants he was fine.

With an elite 7 footer, there's a lot they can lose and still be very valuable. Heck, take Luke's father for instance. Bill contributed to a Celtic's championship long after he was written off due to his injuries. You just need some hope that Oden's knees have been stabilized and won't explode 10 games in to his next season.

I also agree with the thought that we waste money on this roster so many different ways, spending as much as $5m/season to give Oden a shot is no biggie.

 

[KI4MVP]

Again I am not against a flyer but was pointing out the logic that he was a top pick really has little to zero to do with it. He is a huge, HUGE medical risk. Cheap I don't see an issue with but giving a guy 5 or 6 million a year seems silly if he won't hit the floor. The Luke Walton point is completely unrelated because he was traded for to make a deal work to get a possible 1st, his expiring deal this year is worth more than all the basket and rebounds he has put up in his almost 2 years here.

Oden's upside is to be the dominant center in the league. That's why he was the top pick, that's why he is worth a risk if there is a reasonable chance he has recovered from his surgeries. And the risk is minimal, if he fails all we did was spend some cap space we wouldn't have otherwise spent that comes off the books before we wanted to spend it.

As things stand now, we're going to have trouble hitting the league minimum salary next year while retaining cap space for a max player in 2014.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

What we need and none of us have access to is a medical assessment of Greg. A lot of people wrote Zydrunas off after all his foot surgeries, but once he got them replaced with 50lb bionic implants he was fine.

With an elite 7 footer, there's a lot they can lose and still be very valuable. Heck, take Luke's father for instance. Bill contributed to a Celtic's championship long after he was written off due to his injuries. You just need some hope that Oden's knees have been stabilized and won't explode 10 games in to his next season.

What concerns me is that Z's problem was a structural issue that could be essentially cured. Oden's is more degenerative. And while Walton did contribute to the Celtic's championship, he did it as a backup playing less than 20 minutes game, and even that only for one year. He was nice to have, but I don't think that's really the kind of upside that would justify the dollars people are discussing here, considering the real possibility of a complete flameout. $5M may not seem like much, but Grant seems to be able to squeeze a lot of value out of assets like that.

I think he has to be projected at more than Boston's Bill Walton to have this make sense. Whether he is....who the hell knows? As you say, it all depends on the medicals.

 

[Baseline Runner]

[video=youtube;YmULW-eIRTg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmULW-eIRTg[/video]

I think this kind of shows what he is at this point. Can hit a jumper, athletic inside, strong dunker. Looks like a 3rd/4th big to me.

I wouldn't get too excited about these highlights as he was going up against the worst of all time defender in Andrea.

Anyways this trade just blows my mind. We get a first round pick, big man depths in Speights, a legit young prospect in Selby, all for a bit of cap relief? Just wow!

 

[mAo_mAo]

I wouldn't get too excited about these highlights as he was going up against the worst of all time defender in Andrea.

Anyways this trade just blows my mind. We get a first round pick, big man depths in Speights, a legit young prospect in Selby, all for a bit of cap relief? Just wow!

Andrea is not even in that game. He was against Kleiza/Gray/Johnson.

 

[Jack Brickman]

What concerns me is that Z's problem was a structural issue that could be essentially cured. Oden's is more degenerative. And while Walton did contribute to the Celtic's championship, he did it as a backup playing less than 20 minutes game, and even that only for one year. He was nice to have, but I don't think that's really the kind of upside that would justify the dollars people are discussing here, considering the real possibility of a complete flameout. $5M may not seem like much, but Grant seems to be able to squeeze a lot of value out of assets like that.

I think he has to be projected at more than Boston's Bill Walton to have this make sense. Whether he is....who the hell knows? As you say, it all depends on the medicals.

I think you're mixing up Oden with Brandon Roy. Roy had the degenerative cartilage issues. Oden dealt with multiple microfractures, but as far as I know it wasn't a degenerative issue. His main problem was improper rehab and, in at least one instance, being pushed back into playing before he was medically ready.

 

[Baseline Runner]

(RCF logic of using youtube videos)
Dude, Jon Leuer is AMAZING!!!!!!!
[video=youtube;bKC2JYQf5_0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKC2JYQf5_0[/video]

We got ripped off SOOOOOOOOOO bad.

LOL even in Leuers mix tape he looks like a scrub.

 

[Baseline Runner]

This is such worst case scenario talk. The odds of this picking being in the late 20's is very slim. The team is over the cap, has a good group of core players now, that will be old in 2016. They have no way of adding any talent via the draft in 2013, no second round picks, and no other useful assets to get better players. This is a team that will be in the decline when we get the pick. Imagine in the LJ years had we had an extra mid-teens to early 20's first round pick. This is all about having assets when the team is good, and needs to add a player, or to keep adding fresh blood to the team, so that we can maintain young talent. If this hits right we could be looking at a top 10 pick in 2016 - 2017 that would hopefully supplement a top 4 team in the league. Plus, 6 million now, to have the chance to add a cheap talent in 4 or 5 years will be huge. I think this is one thing being missed, a rookie salary will be cheap, and something the team can afford when we are close or over the luxury cap.

Actually Memphis is one season ending injury away from giving us their 8-14 pick in the next few seasons. Memphis has no real depth and if Rudy Gay, Gasol or Randolph went down for the season, they'd have a tough time making the playoffs (but wouldn't be so bad to where it would be a top 5 pick). It's a genius play by Grant.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I dropped a B on the trade. I reserve the right to raise it to an A if any of the younger players exceed my expectations. Unless I see a major difference maker joining the team, B is my ceiling.

 

[Wine and Gold]

3 year contract.
year 1, the rest of this season, we pay him to rehab, the $4 million or so of cap space we have left, I believe we only end up paying half of that.
year 2, next year, $5 million
year 3, team option, $5 million

We have to offer more than contenders like Miami could offer, and paying what may be a little high considering the risk gets us the team option. Having the contract start this year gets us the Bird rights.

This doesn't hurt our flexibility. We have plenty of expiring contracts this year, plenty of cap space next year, and if he fails, he's off the books for 2014 free agency.

I think where he is at physically ...your numbers are way too high.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I think you're mixing up Oden with Brandon Roy. Roy had the degenerative cartilage issues. Oden dealt with multiple microfractures, but as far as I know it wasn't a degenerative issue. His main problem was improper rehab and, in at least one instance, being pushed back into playing before he was medically ready.

Bad choice of words on my part. What I was trying to say was that while bones can grow back to be as stronger or even stronger than they were initially, that's not true with soft tissue. The cartilage created by microfracture surgery is not the same as natural cartilage. It's less durable, so while successful surgery helps performance, it still leaves behind the inevitability of faster wear. And Oden's had it in both knees.

Studies have shown that microfracture techniques do not fill in the chondral defect fully, forming fibrocartilage rather than hyaline cartilage. Fibrocartilage is not as mechanically sound as hyaline cartilage; it is much denser and unable to withstand the demands of everyday activities as well as the original cartilage and is thus at higher risk of breaking down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microfracture_surgery

But you're right -- I suppose that's not quite the same as it being degenerative.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I dropped a B on the trade. I reserve the right to raise it to an A if any of the younger players exceed my expectations. Unless I see a major difference maker joining the team, B is my ceiling.

Thank God you weren't my teacher. :chuckles:

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Gave the trade an A. A+ is reserved for ditching Shawn Kemp's contract.

 

[RTrees]

I agree Ben. I think his game is very similar to Waiters in that his best asset is his irrational confidence in his offensive ability, but unlike Waiters, his jumper is stronger and more consistent than his drive and he is capable of using that first to get going. If he were put in a position where he got the green light in a system like ours like Arenas did in Washington where Eddie was running this exact same offense, he'd turn some heads. Every bit the player Kemba Walker is.

I think Selby has more defensive ability and Id love to watch him match up with Kyrie and Dion in some heated practices.

Come on now.. And nobody realizes it? What? And coaches just wont let him play?

I think you may be underrating Kemba here. The load he carries at the size he carries it at is pretty amazing. Takes more than skill to do it all the time. If Selby was as consistently good as Kemba, I think we'd have seen much more of him, no? Not saying he's not as skilled, but the whole package is not nearly the same.

Kemba's pretty obviously fit for big NBA minutes. He looks like one of the best players on his team. Selby was just given away to save less than a mil. You sure he's every bit the player Kemba is?