Commentary Thread - 2020 RCF NFL Mock Draft

[Triplethreat]

Nobody is making it personal here. At the same time, this was the expectation posted by @Soda:

Trades MUST be reasonable. You can discuss trades with anyone whether or not they have indicated they'd be open to it.

If people aren't acting in good faith on this, we should ban trades for picks in future years.

Just trying to make a mock draft worth participating in for everyone.

Fantastic

Good thing the trade value chart makes this trade COMPLETELY AND OBJECTIVELY reasonable.

Legitimately something the Chargers could do.

 

[Jordan]

How so?

You’re vastly overvaluing mid 1st round and 2nd round picks then compared to a franchise quarterback.

Also, your hard on for me is showing a lot more as of late.

Get a room.

In all seriousness, while the Redskins would absolutely view this trade as a win on their part, I think it makes sense for the Dolphins, too.

The team has two more first-round picks this year, a team that is already overperforming, and a stable of other key-long term guys. If they hit on all three firsts (one superstar and two long-term starters) then the move makes some sense.

With that said, the shrewd analytics guy in me is very weary. Humans all believe we are better at what we do than actuality. There have been numerous economic papers that show NFL GMs are overconfident in their ability to scout the best talent and rank that talent across positions. Even the "best-drafting" teams tend to struggle at drafting certain positions and/or do well in early rounds and are miserable late.

Thus, if I were a GM in the position that the Redskins are in (they just took a QB with a strong end to the season), I would totally make a trade like this. The more picks you can compile, the higher your chances of hitting on a superstar, and you need many of them to win in the NFL.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Get a room.

In all seriousness, while the Redskins would absolutely view this trade as a win on their part, I think it makes sense for the Dolphins, too.

The team has two more first-round picks this year, a team that is already overperforming, and a stable of other key-long term guys. If they hit on all three firsts (one superstar and two long-term starters) then the move makes some sense.

With that said, the shrewd analytics guy in me is very weary. Humans all believe we are better at what we do than actuality. There have been numerous economic papers that show NFL GMs are overconfident in their ability to scout the best talent and rank that talent across positions. Even the "best-drafting" teams tend to struggle at drafting certain positions and/or do well in early rounds and are miserable late.

Thus, if I were a GM in the position that the Redskins are in (they just took a QB with a strong end to the season), I would totally make a trade like this. The more picks you can compile, the higher your chances of hitting on a superstar, and you need many of them to win in the NFL.

The Dolphins aren't interested in trading up. Year one of the rebuild and we just stripped the roster down last year. We want picks, not to trade them all away and get the QB we traded up to grab murdered.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I think Triplethreat gave up too much here.

However, would the RGIII trade have been "Reasonable" before it happened?

Isn't this trade almost exactly the Carson Wentz deal?

The Eagles gave up a third and fourth in 2016, plus a '17 first, and an '18 second to get Wentz. This was to go from 8 to 2. @Triplethreat went from 6 to 2 for nearly an identical price--just not giving up that fourth rounder this year.

At this time last year, if anyone drafted Daniel Jones at #6 would it have been viewed as reasonable? I know liking a prospect and trade values aren't the same, but wouldn't it give you a similar vibe? I got Jones at #105 in our last mock.

If @Triplethreat believes that Tua is a franchise QB--someone who if you have the chance to get, you get him... then it's not really an egregious or unrealistic overpay. It's just the price of a franchise QB in the top two picks of the draft.

 

[Triplethreat]

Last year two people swapped Mathew Stafford and Marcus Mariota and we’re calling my trade unreasonable.

For Christ’s sake man.

 

[Jordan]

The Dolphins aren't interested in trading up. Year one of the rebuild and we just stripped the roster down last year. We want picks, not to trade them all away and get the QB we traded up to grab murdered.

I won't delete my last post so y'all can laugh at me. But that does change things... Though, I still think one can argue that the Chargers have a very complete team. If they feel that they are a QB away, well hell, they should make this type of trade.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Fantastic

Good thing the trade value chart makes this trade COMPLETELY AND OBJECTIVELY reasonable.

Legitimately something the Chargers could do.

I don't think it was that bad a trade, but I think you could have gotten the 'Skins to throw in something else to pair with your new young QB.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Last year two people swapped Mathew Stafford and Marcus Mariota and we’re calling my trade unreasonable.

For Christ’s sake man.

And we gave them shit. That's how it works.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I won't delete my last post so y'all can laugh at me. But that does change things... Though, I still think one can argue that the Chargers have a very complete team. If they feel that they are a QB away, well hell, they should make this type of trade.

Yeah, the Chargers are in a better position to move up for sure. They've got Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, and will probably add a RB in the draft. Good weapons for a QB to have.

 

[Triplethreat]

And we gave them shit. That's how it works.

Yet mine is completely reasonable.

In fact, there is MULTIPLE similar instances to compare to in just the last 10 years. Watson, RGIII and Wentz.

Yeah, the Chargers are in a better position to move up for sure. They've got Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, and will probably add a RB in the draft. Good weapons for a QB to have.

And a very solid base of young, stud defensive players.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Yet mine is completely reasonable.

In fact, there is MULTIPLE similar instances to compare to in just the last 10 years. Watson, RGIII and Wentz.

Let's see how the real draft shakes out. Tua is a pretty good fit with the Chargers franchise. The West Coast has a large Samoan community. With his injuries, I expect Tua is there at #6. Let's see how reality plays out. Again, nothing personal... but what @DJTJ wrote about your reasoning for the trade stood out. Ideally, the mock draft assumes each GM wants to keep his job next year, unless you work for the Texans.

 

[Triplethreat]

Let's see how the real draft shakes out. Tua is a pretty good fit with the Chargers franchise. The West Coast has a large Samoan community. With his injuries, I expect Tua is there at #6. Let's see how reality plays out. Again, nothing personal... but what @DJTJ wrote about your reasoning for the trade stood out. Ideally, the mock draft assumes each GM wants to keep his job next year, unless you work for the Texans.

Taking a chance on someone being there when you pick at 6 sounds unreasonably stupid if you really want to secure a player.

 

[DJTJ]

Let's see how the real draft shakes out. Tua is a pretty good fit with the Chargers franchise. The West Coast has a large Samoan community. With his injuries, I expect Tua is there at #6. Let's see how reality plays out. Again, nothing personal... but what @DJTJ wrote about your reasoning for the trade stood out. Ideally, the mock draft assumes each GM wants to keep his job next year, unless you work for the Texans.

There’s also been a revamp of how draft capital works in the NFL- the old point schedule for picks is not really a thing, and has become outdated.

The RG3 trade happened nearly a decade ago, and the Wentz trade was four years ago. Those packages are not the norm, nor expected.

2019- the highest pick trades was 10th- the capital recurved to go down 10 spots was a single late second.
2018- Indy moved back from 3 to 6 for three seconds- one early, one mid, and one future. This is probably the most applicable trade, which was also to move up to get a starting QB. There were also multiple picks traded (7 for two additional late seconds to move back five, and 10 for a third to move back 5).

Even the Wentz deal, to move back six spots and was seemingly the framework here, came in a draft where there 1. Wasn’t a Chase Young, and 2. With the second coming in 2018, 2 drafts later.

Factually, the hauls to move up just aren’t realistic, and if you had to come back next year and draft... yuck.

 

[CBBI]

According to the "new" value chart...

No. 2 pick is worth 717 points

No. 6 pick is worth 446 points
No. 71 pick is worth 68 points
2021 1st is worth approximately 305 points
2022 2nd is worth approximately 56 points

Verdict: Overpay by 158 points which is the equivalent of a high 2nd round pick in 2020.

Not egregiously bad to the point of being unrealistic, but still a definite overpay.

Switching the 2021 1st to a 2021 2nd would have made it very even.

 

[WorldFreeB]

Initially I thought it was a really bad trade but the more I look at it if I have a chance to draft a pure stud
like Chase Young its going to take an overpay for me to give that pick up,,so its really not a bad trade from both sides.
I would hesitate to do it because of Tua's health but its a gamble that could be a big win.