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The Celtics stagger into Cleveland for a rematch of last Wednesday’s game in Boston, which the Celtics won easily. They were up by 15 points with 2:20 to go before three 3’s by Garland in the last 45 seconds made the game look closer than it actually was.
Two things have changed since then. One, the game is in Cleveland and the Celtics are 20-11 on the road against 25-9 at home. Two, the Cavs were off yesterday after an easy home win against Detroit while the Celtics played the Knicks in Boston last night, losing in double overtime 131-129.
The Cavs lead the season series 2-1, having won the first two games in overtime when Robert Williams III was out. The Athletic had this on Williams returning:
After missing the first 29 games, Williams has proven he could be the key to Boston’s title hopes. The Celtics, as of March 2, have bashed teams by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Their defense, very good regardless, has jumped to nearly invincible during Williams’ time next to Al Horford (106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Celtics rotation is loaded, and the front office strengthened the frontcourt depth by adding Mike Muscala from Oklahoma City at the trade deadline. But the team’s fortunes could still be decided by whether Williams stays healthy when it matters most.
The Cavs are 2-0 with Williams out and 0-1 when he plays so Williams being out is a big break for the Cavs.
In addition to their excellent defense the key for Boston is their 3-point shooting; they are 3rd in 3-point frequency, 27th in mid-range frequency, and 26th at the rim, so it’s clear they depend heavily on 3-point shooting. In the two games the Cavs won they held the Celtics to 32% from deep, but in the Celtics win they shot 50%. They were 16-for-32 while the Cavs were 10-for-32; an 18-point difference in a 4-point game. Against Boston it’s all about defending the 3-point shot.
The other big factor in the Cavs’ loss last week was Jason Tatum. With 41 points and 8 assists he either scored or assisted on about 60 of their 117 points. In sharp contrast the Cavs got 9 points and 0 assists in 36 minutes from Okoro, Wade, and Cedi. The difference between the small forwards was night and day.
Al Horford, at 36 years of age, had 23 points in 33 minutes against the Cavs, going 6-for-8 on 3’s. He also pulled down 11 rebounds. Horford played 46 minutes last night and I doubt he will play tonight. So far this season Horford has not played on two consecutive nights, and it’s unlikely he’ll play his first back-to-back tonight after 46 minutes last night plus travel. Horford and Robert Williams both being out would be a huge boost to the Cavs’ chances.
Darius Garland was 5-for-9 on 3’s in Boston while the rest of the Cavs were 5-for-23. That continued in the next game against Detroit where Garland was 5-for-6 and his teammates went 9-for-28. Okoro, Wade, Osman, and Stevens were 1-for-11. In the last two games our four small forwards are an embarrassing 1-for-16 on 3’s. Donovan Mitchell is just 6-for-18 from deep over the last two games. The Cavs need someone other than Garland to hit 3’s if they’re going to beat the better teams in the NBA.
Jarrett Allen scored only 5 points against the Celtics in a 4-point loss last week. I expect him to come out fired up and have a much more productive game this time, especially with Robert Williams out.
Donovan Mitchell scored 44 points Wednesday and I expect the Celtics will adjust their defense to double him more frequently and try to make him give up the ball. They would rather see the Northeast Ohio Local Brickmasters Union (Okoro, Cedi, Wade, Mobley, and Stevens) shooting uncontested 3’s than Mitchell going one-on-one. However, Mitchell is listed as questionable after jamming a finger on his non-shooting hand against Detroit.
For the Cavs to emerge with a W they need to shoot better than 31% on 3’s and hold the Celtics to under the 50% they shot in Boston.
In his last 12 games Darius Garland is hitting 55.7% of his 3’s. In his last four games he’s even better; 17-for-27 from deep, or 63%. He is on fire and should try to get up more 3’s while he is locked in. The rest of the team, however….
Caris LeVert is quietly contributing. In his last three games he was a +13, +11, and +13 off the bench. He doesn’t stuff the stat sheet but his defense, rebounding, and assists have been valuable. Ricky Rubio is slowly finding his footing.
Cedi Osman, OTOH, is really struggling. In February he shot 35% from the field and 31% on 3’s. Against Boston he was pulled after five scoreless minutes in which the team was a -8, then against Detroit he had just 5 points in 19 minutes. We may see more of Danny Green and Lamar Stevens down the stretch.
With the Celtics having played a double overtime game last night that ended at 10:40 p.m. and then having to fly to Cleveland in the wee hours, they should be exhausted. Tatum played 49 minutes last night, Brown 47, Horford 46, Grant Williams 44, and Smart 39.
Their starters are going to be wiped out; I’m wondering if they might just give all of them the night off as they have a west coast trip starting this weekend. Last month the Warriors had an overtime game in Boston and played the Cavs in Cleveland the next night. They sat their entire starting lineup (but won anyway). I really question whether Tatum and Brown will be asked to go up against one of the league’s best (and well-rested) defenses after playing 49 and 47 minutes last night.
In last week’s game the Celtics’ bench scored only 12 of their 117 points; last night it was 15 of 129. Their top six players played 89% of the available minutes last night. This is a team that depends heavily on the starters playing great defense and hitting a lot of 3’s, which will be tough to do with tired legs and not a lot of sleep.
Malcolm Brogdon, their 3rd leading scorer at 14.6 points as a 6th man, was out last night and is listed as a game time decision.
Two things have changed since then. One, the game is in Cleveland and the Celtics are 20-11 on the road against 25-9 at home. Two, the Cavs were off yesterday after an easy home win against Detroit while the Celtics played the Knicks in Boston last night, losing in double overtime 131-129.
The Cavs lead the season series 2-1, having won the first two games in overtime when Robert Williams III was out. The Athletic had this on Williams returning:
After missing the first 29 games, Williams has proven he could be the key to Boston’s title hopes. The Celtics, as of March 2, have bashed teams by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Their defense, very good regardless, has jumped to nearly invincible during Williams’ time next to Al Horford (106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Celtics rotation is loaded, and the front office strengthened the frontcourt depth by adding Mike Muscala from Oklahoma City at the trade deadline. But the team’s fortunes could still be decided by whether Williams stays healthy when it matters most.
The Cavs are 2-0 with Williams out and 0-1 when he plays so Williams being out is a big break for the Cavs.
In addition to their excellent defense the key for Boston is their 3-point shooting; they are 3rd in 3-point frequency, 27th in mid-range frequency, and 26th at the rim, so it’s clear they depend heavily on 3-point shooting. In the two games the Cavs won they held the Celtics to 32% from deep, but in the Celtics win they shot 50%. They were 16-for-32 while the Cavs were 10-for-32; an 18-point difference in a 4-point game. Against Boston it’s all about defending the 3-point shot.
The other big factor in the Cavs’ loss last week was Jason Tatum. With 41 points and 8 assists he either scored or assisted on about 60 of their 117 points. In sharp contrast the Cavs got 9 points and 0 assists in 36 minutes from Okoro, Wade, and Cedi. The difference between the small forwards was night and day.
Al Horford, at 36 years of age, had 23 points in 33 minutes against the Cavs, going 6-for-8 on 3’s. He also pulled down 11 rebounds. Horford played 46 minutes last night and I doubt he will play tonight. So far this season Horford has not played on two consecutive nights, and it’s unlikely he’ll play his first back-to-back tonight after 46 minutes last night plus travel. Horford and Robert Williams both being out would be a huge boost to the Cavs’ chances.
Darius Garland was 5-for-9 on 3’s in Boston while the rest of the Cavs were 5-for-23. That continued in the next game against Detroit where Garland was 5-for-6 and his teammates went 9-for-28. Okoro, Wade, Osman, and Stevens were 1-for-11. In the last two games our four small forwards are an embarrassing 1-for-16 on 3’s. Donovan Mitchell is just 6-for-18 from deep over the last two games. The Cavs need someone other than Garland to hit 3’s if they’re going to beat the better teams in the NBA.
Jarrett Allen scored only 5 points against the Celtics in a 4-point loss last week. I expect him to come out fired up and have a much more productive game this time, especially with Robert Williams out.
Donovan Mitchell scored 44 points Wednesday and I expect the Celtics will adjust their defense to double him more frequently and try to make him give up the ball. They would rather see the Northeast Ohio Local Brickmasters Union (Okoro, Cedi, Wade, Mobley, and Stevens) shooting uncontested 3’s than Mitchell going one-on-one. However, Mitchell is listed as questionable after jamming a finger on his non-shooting hand against Detroit.
For the Cavs to emerge with a W they need to shoot better than 31% on 3’s and hold the Celtics to under the 50% they shot in Boston.
In his last 12 games Darius Garland is hitting 55.7% of his 3’s. In his last four games he’s even better; 17-for-27 from deep, or 63%. He is on fire and should try to get up more 3’s while he is locked in. The rest of the team, however….
Caris LeVert is quietly contributing. In his last three games he was a +13, +11, and +13 off the bench. He doesn’t stuff the stat sheet but his defense, rebounding, and assists have been valuable. Ricky Rubio is slowly finding his footing.
Cedi Osman, OTOH, is really struggling. In February he shot 35% from the field and 31% on 3’s. Against Boston he was pulled after five scoreless minutes in which the team was a -8, then against Detroit he had just 5 points in 19 minutes. We may see more of Danny Green and Lamar Stevens down the stretch.
With the Celtics having played a double overtime game last night that ended at 10:40 p.m. and then having to fly to Cleveland in the wee hours, they should be exhausted. Tatum played 49 minutes last night, Brown 47, Horford 46, Grant Williams 44, and Smart 39.
Their starters are going to be wiped out; I’m wondering if they might just give all of them the night off as they have a west coast trip starting this weekend. Last month the Warriors had an overtime game in Boston and played the Cavs in Cleveland the next night. They sat their entire starting lineup (but won anyway). I really question whether Tatum and Brown will be asked to go up against one of the league’s best (and well-rested) defenses after playing 49 and 47 minutes last night.
In last week’s game the Celtics’ bench scored only 12 of their 117 points; last night it was 15 of 129. Their top six players played 89% of the available minutes last night. This is a team that depends heavily on the starters playing great defense and hitting a lot of 3’s, which will be tough to do with tired legs and not a lot of sleep.
Malcolm Brogdon, their 3rd leading scorer at 14.6 points as a 6th man, was out last night and is listed as a game time decision.
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