I thought we had a thread devoted to 2015 and beyond planning and strategy, but this is the best thread I can find.
Jacob Rosen at WFNY recently posted an interesting article on this topic:
http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2...liers-and-future-salaries-wfny-faqs/#comments
It's interesting not least because he provides a CBA tax calculation tool (which I didn't try, but I assume it works). Rosen's estimate for the Cavs' team salary in 2015-16 is $109M.
We can question some of his assumptions, as many of the comments to the post graciously do, but I think the $109M estimate, which basically brings the current team back, is a good ballpark figure. Per Rosen's tax calculator, a prospective $109M team salary would mean a tax bill of some $77M.
The $109M figure does not include utilizing the Haywood contract. It doesn't include using the taxpayers MLE. In fact, it provides for only a 12 man roster. Every team needs to carry at least 13 players, and I would be very surprised if the Cavs don't carry at least 14.
In other words, we will need to increase the $109M figure a bit more, even if the Cavs fill out their roster with minimum salary players.
In view of this huge tax bill, Rosen suspects the Haywood chip won't be used, again, assuming pretty much the entire team is back. A commenter makes a good point, which I may have also seen in RCF, that in this scenario the Cavs could trade Haywood and a minor asset (likely the Portland 2nd round pick which Griffin ably acquired in the Mozgov deal with Denver) to a team with capspace, generating a $10M+ TPE for the Cavs. That team would immediately release Haywood, but would have the #53 pick in this draft for their trouble. That sort of deal would ideally be worked out before the draft, but couldn't be executed till July.
It would be a way to preserve some of the value of the Haywood contract through July 2016, providing the Cavs with a tool to add salary that they wouldn't otherwise have at their disposal.