Love/Wiggins Trade Revisited

[Randolphkeys]

I never said anything negative about Wiggins' longterm potential. I said he looks three years away from being a #2 or 3 best player on a contender. I would have said the same about Kyrie when he was a rookie.

As for the Love bashing, I don't buy it. He looks a little physically battered, probably because it took Griffin a few months to shape the front court. Verajao going down left the team with one viable big man in Thompson, who like Dale Davis is a little undersized to be a center but lacking the perimeter skills to be a power forward. Why, when the front court was so clearly the weakness on the team, do you protect a luxury like a raw shooting guard who stands to be very good in four years?

Love has played like he always has, but the offense doesn't go through him. I've not been disappointed in his play. If some Cavaliers fans expected him to replicate his numbers as a #1 option in a third option role, they need to learn a little more about the sport. If some Cavaliers fans think Wiggins would replicate his #1 option numbers if he were the Cavaliers' shooting guard, well again you have some learning to do.

 

[gourimoko]

I never said anything negative about Wiggins' longterm potential. I said he looks three years away from being a #2 or 3 best player on a contender. I would have said the same about Kyrie when he was a rookie.

Gotcha... I don't agree, but second option on a contender isn't Corey Brewer so I guess that's fair enough.

As for the Love bashing, I don't buy it.

I'm not bashing Love.

He looks a little physically battered, probably be a use it took Griffin a few months to shape the front court. Verajao going down left the team with one viable big man in Thompson, who like Dale Davis is a little undersized to be a center but lacking the perimeter skills to be a power forward. Why, when the front court was so clearly the weakness on the team, do you protect a luxury like a raw shooting guard who stands to be very good in four years?

This is ex post facto reasoning, and obviously irrational, no?

You're arguing that the Wiggins offseason trade was justified because Varejao was later injured during the season?

But more to the point, Kevin Love didn't do anything for our front court defense; I can post numerous articles and analyses beside my own to further back up that point.

It was the presence of Timofey Mozgov that changed our front-court, not Kevin Love.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Love can't be effective and can't have a considerable impact, he can.

But the way our coach chooses to use him negates a great deal of what makes Love a standout All-Star player.
Simply perching him out on the 3-pt line for 36-minutes of often unnecessary floor spacing isn't helping us run a great offense. Instead, it merely enables Kyrie and LeBron to isolate.

Love has played like he always has, but the offense doesn't go through him. I've not been disappointed in his play.

I don't know how/why you can say this though?

Love, by his own admission, isn't playing his game. He's taking a tremendous amount of threes, not playing in his familiar spots on the floor, and is not getting ample touches in position.

With regards to being disappointed, well, I think most people would disagree with you. Love has been disappointing this season. Sure, there exists the hope that he will improve due to health or better fit, or a change in systems, but this season, Love's performance has left quite a lot to be desired considering what he was billed at.

I don't think anyone thought we'd be getting 16.8/10/2 on 43% FG.

So to say that stat line isn't a disappointment, is well, odd.

If some Cavaliers fans expected him to replicate his numyers as a #1 option in a third option role, they need to learn a little more about the sport.

I agree. But if you go back to my posts, I said he wouldn't be a second option on this team, but he'd be third behind Kyrie.

I expected 18ppg+, but more importantly, what I think everyone expected, was that with lower point production we would see higher efficiency, more assists (he has the ability if just given the ball), and a return to being a Top 3 rebounder in the league.

None of those three things happened.

If some Cavaliers fans think Wiggins would replicate his #1 option numbers if he were the Cavaliers' shooting guard, well again you have some learning to do.

I don't think anyone said this.

 

[The Red Viper]

Can we just close the topic for this season?

Its not fair on Wiggins to be judged after a season, just like its not fair on Love to be judged within a season. Ideally, we should judge this trade after a couple of years when both the players have gelled with their teams properly. Because currently its just to and fro without any convincing arguments.

 

[TitleTown]

Yes. Close this shit down. It's really just a Wiggins thread.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Ideally, we should judge this trade after a couple of years when both the players have gelled with their teams properly. Because currently its just to and fro without any convincing arguments.

In time, we will have that luxury. For now, the clearest vindication of the trade is not looking at Love's stats in isolation of team success. It is a convenient ruse for those who early on wanted to see Wiggins stay a Cavalier. What matters is that the Cavaliers appear to be the heavy favorite to make it to the finals out of the East. The only games they lost are to top teams on the road. That is what a championship team looks like. So, if Love isn't getting post touches the way Blatt originally wanted but the team is still looking this good, all the evidence in the world is staring back at you. The. Plan. Worked.

BTW: Sorry for the bad spelling today. My spell check is changing words into nonsense. It's been really frustrating when trying to explain my points.

 

[gourimoko]

In time, we will have that luxury. For now, the clearest vindication of the trade is not looking at Love's stats in isolation of team success. It is a convenient ruse for those who early on wanted to see Wiggins stay a Cavalier.

I wish we didn't need to resort to ad hominem attacks to avoid critical analysis. Attack the argument, not the person.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I wish we didn't need to resort to ad hominem attacks to avoid critical analysis. Attack the argument, not the person.

Limiting the most important evidence in favor of the Love trade as inadmissible was in need of attack.

 

[gourimoko]

Limiting the most important evidence in favor of the Love trade as inadmissible was in need of attack.

So future events can justify past decisions?

 

[Randolphkeys]

So future events can justify past decisions?

Griffin had a plan for changing over the majority of the roster to fit LeBron and Kyrie. To be honest, we had heard about either LaMarcus Aldridge or Love as trade targets back when Grant was fired. It meant the PF and C positions needed a huge upgrade. He wanted to get a new set of starters to keep AV and TT as the 3rd and 4th bigs. He wanted Mozgov to start at C since July. I just wish the Denver deal came through earlier to save the wear and tear on AV and Love... but that isn't future events. It's looking at the strategy as a whole rather than just one move of the strategy.

 

[LeShaq]

Limiting the most important evidence in favor of the Love trade as inadmissible was in need of attack.

True, it did.

However, there is simply no evidence -- of any kind -- that I am aware of to try to put Wiggins over Love. Obviously, the Cavs' standing at the moment speaks for itself.

There is no other measurement which would favor Wiggins, either. At least not to my knowledge.

Love's stats in isolation are superior to those of Wiggins. I don't think there's any serious debate of that.

Any measurement of almost any kind -- Per 36 stats; offensive rating/defensive rating; BPM; VORP; PER; win shares per 48, on off court -- favors Love. There's nothing to discuss. The statistics are clear. It's ludicrous, I think, to try to compare Wiggins to Love.

Earlier I compared Wiggins with fellow rookie Jordan Clarkson. If we had to compare Wiggins with someone currently on the Cavs, I would probably compare him with JR Smith in terms of stats. Here's how it looks.


Smith per 36 = 14/4/3; 12.6 FGA
14.6 PER; 55% TS; 18.0% usage
+4.1 on/off court
+1.4 VORP


Wiggins per 36 = 16/5/2; 13.8 FGA
13.1 PER; 51% TS; 21.8% usage
-0.4 on/off court
-0.2 VORP


To give you an idea of how poor a -0.2 VORP is, Joe Harris has a -0.2 VORP. So does Mike Miller.

I think it was The Bullshit Whisperer who said that Smith is a better fit for this team than Wiggins is. The Bullshit Whisperer appears correct, as the stats seem to bear out.

As bad as the Wolves are this year, they are still better with Wiggins off the court.

Love's on/off court?
+7.3


Someone asked why this thread was ever made. The thread was made, if I recall correctly, because those in favor of keeping Wiggins would not leave the Kevin Love thread alone. And so in order to discuss Love vs Wiggins this separate thread was made.

The Wiggins defenders seemed to be very eager to discuss the trade earlier in the season. Now, not so much perhaps.

Be careful what you wish for. Sometimes you get it. Those putting Love down wanted a discussion. Here's your discussion. Knock yourselves out.

 

[gourimoko]

Griffin had a plan for changing over the majority of the roster to fit LeBron and Kyrie. To be honest, we had heard about either LaMarcus Aldridge or Love as trade targets back when Grant was fired. It meant the PF and C positions needed a huge upgrade. He wanted to get a new set of starters to keep AV and TT as the 3rd and 4th bigs.

The bolded is an issue in and of itself. Paying your 3rd and 4th bigs over $22M/yr is absurd, especially when almost half of that money is going to someone who has one of the worst histories of continuous injuries in the NBA.

Let me put this into some context.

Of the top 8 teams in the NBA (based on playoff positioning), the average expenditure over all teams is roughly $28.4M for their primary bigs. That's roughly 45% of the 2014-15 salary cap.

Interestingly, no team really goes much higher or lower, with the lowest teams being roughly $25M and the highest being ~$35M.

But none of these teams spends a proposed $22M on their "3rd and 4th bigs;" not even remotely close.

If that really was Griffin's plan, on top of having Love with a max contract and Mozgov with something north of $10M in following year, then that means David Griffin wanted to devote roughly 7/10ths of the salary cap to the Cavaliers front court, in an isolation heavy, spacing dependent, system?

Seriously?

The math doesn't get that much better even with a large spike in the salary cap because both Love and LeBron will be wanting max contracts, long-term.

So frankly, I have a hard time believing that the Cavaliers are right where they want to be in terms of front-court, even if they had a plan in the offseason.

Price/Performance we are not getting a good deal compared to other NBA front courts. In fact, we're paying a premium.

He wanted Mozgov to start at C since July. I just wish the Denver deal came through earlier to save the wear and tear on AV and Love... but that isn't future events. It's looking at the strategy as a while rather than just one move of the steategy.

We've gone through a rabbit hole of twists and turns here justify how Varejao's injury somehow makes the previous decision to trade Andrew Wiggins (in essence, the first round pick in the draft since he never played) + picks + filler, logical at the time, and in the present tense.

I understand the strategy you present here, although I disagree with it. I just don't think Varejao's injury makes sense in the context you're using it in.

Simply put, if Griffin knew Varejao would continue to be injured then why include him in this plan at all? Seems not to make much sense.

I can understand the thought process if we say "LeBron demanded Varejao," I get that, but other teams have players that they are attached to and aren't basically handing them a $30M disability check.

Kevin Love does very little for our interior defense, and Tristan has so many matchup problems it's questionable if he's really worth what he's asking.

Sorry to get sidetracked on the whole Griffin thing, but, if this was all planned then I prefer the Wiggins plan to devoting that much salary to a front-court we barely use in our offense, let alone the potential risk of Kevin Love being injured or walking as a free agent.

 

[LeShaq]

Now, how do the Cavs lineups with Love stack up against other league top lineups?

http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

For all NBA 5 man lineups which have played at least 100 minutes together in the 2014-15 season, the top Cavs lineup is second best in net rating behind only the Warriors best 5 man lineup.


Curry/Thompson/Iguodala/Green/Speights
+28.9 net rating (#1)

Irving/Marion/Lebron/Love/Thompson
+28.2 net rating (#2)

Irving/Smith/Lebron/Love/Mozgov
+21.9 net rating (#5 for 100+ minute lineups)


There are only three teams in the league who have a 5 man lineup that has played at least 100 minutes together this season which has a top 5 net rating. They are-

Warriors
Cavs
Spurs

Love is a critical element to our having one of the best lineups in the NBA. He is part of each of our five best 5 man lineups, and his strong on/off court figure (+7.3) further points out his value on the court to the team.

 

[gourimoko]

True, it did.

However, there is simply no evidence -- of any kind -- that I am aware of to try to put Wiggins over Love. Obviously, the Cavs' standing at the moment speaks for itself.

There is no other measurement which would favor Wiggins, either. At least not to my knowledge.

Love's stats in isolation are superior to those of Wiggins. I don't think there's any serious debate of that.

Any measurement of almost any kind -- Per 36 stats; offensive rating/defensive rating; BPM; VORP; PER; win shares per 48, on off court -- favors Love. There's nothing to discuss. The statistics are clear. It's ludicrous, I think, to try to compare Wiggins to Love.

Earlier I compared Wiggins with fellow rookie Jordan Clarkson. If we had to compare Wiggins with someone currently on the Cavs, I would probably compare him with JR Smith in terms of stats. Here's how it looks.


Smith per 36 = 14/4/3; 12.6 FGA
14.6 PER; 55% TS; 18.0% usage
+4.1 on/off court
+1.4 VORP


Wiggins per 36 = 16/5/2; 13.8 FGA
13.1 PER; 51% TS; 21.8% usage
-0.4 on/off court
-0.2 VORP


To give you an idea of how poor a -0.2 VORP is, Joe Harris has a -0.2 VORP. So does Mike Miller.

I think it was The Bullshit Whisperer who said that Smith is a better fit for this team than Wiggins is. The Bullshit Whisperer appears correct, as the stats seem to bear out.

As bad as the Wolves are this year, they are still better with Wiggins off the court.

Love's on/off court?
+7.3


Someone asked why this thread was ever made. The thread was made, if I recall correctly, because those in favor of keeping Wiggins would not leave the Kevin Love thread alone. And so in order to discuss Love vs Wiggins this separate thread was made.

The Wiggins defenders seemed to be very eager to discuss the trade earlier in the season. Now, not so much perhaps.

Be careful what you wish for. Sometimes you get it. Those putting Love down wanted a discussion. Here's your discussion. Knock yourselves out.

Stahp....

As the much maligned (with good reason) Kevin Pelton put it, Wiggins' performance strongly depends on the support of his roster. He has not excelled as the number one option on offense, with a limited roster plagued with injuries, where teams are putting their primary defender against him.

However, when Muhammad or Rubio are in the lineup and the Wolves are playing well, so is Wiggins.

This is evidenced by his 17 game stretch in January where he put up an impressive 19.8/4.6/2.5 on .546 TS%.

As the lineup became more volatile, and with fewer home games in February, that went down to a respectable 17/5/2 on .523 TS.

Right now, Wiggins is in a shooting slump (his 3pt% has fallen off a cliff) and he's struggling as teams are again guarding him as the primary option.

But to say that Wiggins should be considered below that of a replacement-level player is ridiculous. He's a rookie, playing as the number one option on a team that often plays without a point guard. As the commentators who most often use these stats to make baseless arguments have said recently, "Wiggins is a star in the making."

 

[Randolphkeys]

Frankly, gour, your points seem to be a lot of fury over minutiae.

Love isn't being used correctly? Sure, I agree that when LBJ or Irving are out they need to use more sets that Blatt drew up early in the year. Get a lot of screens off the ball, let Love pass out of the high post. But LeBron's power play and Irving's comfort level kind of nixed that set of plays. I hope that by next year LeBron sees the benefit of the diversification of our offensive sets.

Is the Varejao contract a bad one? Well now that he blew out his tendon it is. But, he has a below the rim game anyway. I think he will be able to bounce back by the end of the 2016 season. Thompson's contract demands are very frustrating, but if the Cavaliers win it all this year, a lot of players will be happy to play on cheaper contracts to mesh with this core of players in the short term. Front court players of quality are never cheap. Kwame Brown retired a rich man and was never very good for Crissakes. It's all about making a run at multiple championships in a window. This is the window, starting this season.

So Love defense is still below perfect, Thompson is still limited, Griffin still reminds me of Frank Underwood's personality in Louie CK's body, and LeBron still shirks the wishes of coaches. And we are still in a great position to win a few championships and dominate the league in the next five years.

 

[LeShaq]

But to say that Wiggins should be considered below that of a replacement-level player is ridiculous. He's a rookie, playing as the number one option on a team that often plays without a point guard. As the commentators who most often use these stats to make baseless arguments have said recently, "Wiggins is a star in the making."

Sorry, that's just not going to get it done.

The VORP is what it is. Wiggins is at a -0.2, and that's where it stands.

As can be seen at this link (scroll to the right for highlighted VORP)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_advanced.html#advanced::28

Wiggins is ranked #422 out of 481 players in VORP. That's not good.

JR Smith is ranked #106.

Would I rather have Wiggins over Smith at the moment?

No. I agree with The Bullshit Whisperer (I think it was him) who said the same.

Mentioning Wiggins in the same breath as Love at the present moment is laughable.