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Matthew Dellavedova

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Really good stats based article on Delly

http://www.fearthesword.com/2015/3/2/8127061/the-problem-of-matthew-dellavedova-synergy-sports

In other words, Matthew Dellavedova can do one specific thing on the offensive end (catch-and-shoot threes) from a few specific areas (straight ahead, right wing and right corner). He isn't adept at creating off the dribble in the pick-and-roll game, doesn't get to the free throw line, is not a very good passer, doesn't rebound and doesn't make his teammates better on the offensive end.
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The Cavs are more than 5 points better per 100 possessions when he is sitting on the bench. In other words, when Delly is out there, the team reverts to pre-hot-streak-level defense.
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His Defensive Real Plus Minus also ranks him 409th out of 496 available players (as of March 1st). I don't have a PhD in statistics, so I can't explain how that metric precisely works, but what it endeavors to do is describe a player's defensive impact "by adjusting for the effects of each teammate, opposing player and coach." Single-number metrics are worthy of healthy skepticism, and must be used in an appropriate manner (i.e. to support an argument, not be the foundation for one, which leads to all kinds of problems), but Delly's -1.79 number ranks him 81st of 104 shooting guards (the position he's listed) and would be 59th of 92 point guards.
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The issue with Dellavedova has never been, and will never be, his hustle. It's his other limitations. For example, when he stands in transition to foul a player streaking down the floor, it can be mistaken for a smart play. He isn't fast and can't jump, so sinking back and defending the paint by stopping the ball or contesting at the rim aren't options for him. There's nothing particularly noble about committing hard fouls after turnovers and putting your hand up, signaling to the refs "I did it!" when that's more or less the only play available to you.
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...when Kyrie is out, Dellavedova averages nearly 37 minutes per game. The Cavs, unfortunately, are just 1-4 when that happens.
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Like I said before, this kid belongs in Europe.
 
mhi said:
Really good stats based article on Delly

http://www.fearthesword.com/2015/3/2/8127061/the-problem-of-matthew-dellavedova-synergy-sports
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Ugh, this article is devastating. Basically documents that the whole team has a significantly increased level of suckitude when Delly is on the floor:

"In other words, Matthew Dellavedova can do one specific thing on the offensive end (catch-and-shoot threes) from a few specific areas (straight ahead, right wing and right corner). He isn't adept at creating off the dribble in the pick-and-roll game, doesn't get to the free throw line, is not a very good passer, doesn't rebound and doesn't make his teammates better on the offensive end.

But what about defensively? Every coaching staff he's ever played for seems to love him, especially for his effort on that side of the ball. Surely his offensive woes are offset by the way he guards people, with effort and intensity, right?

Not exactly. Defensive metrics are far less abundant than offensive ones, but parsing through what's available tells the story of an average to below-average defender, at best. For one thing, Cleveland's defense has been much, much better since January 15th... except when Dellavedova is on the floor. The Cavs are more than 5 points better per 100 possessions when he is sitting on the bench. In other words, when Delly is out there, the team reverts to pre-hot-streak-level defense."
​
Kind of changed my views on Delly to see these stats laid out.
 
*zzzz*....*snork*...*grumble*...

"Real Plus Minus" will always dislike Delly because it uses box score priors, and Delly's box score stats suck.

If you look at RAPM that does not use box score priors (this particular version uses previous year RAPM as priors instead), he rates out as slightly above average (+0.6, +0.4) on both ends.

*returns to slumber*
 
I saw those metrics in action this whole season. I would like to know if he statistically played better D last year or if im just imagining it. Because THIS year hes not staying in front of ANYODY and hes not even being a pest anymore.

I honestly don't know why we haven't called Nate Robinson, or Jammer Nelson, or anybody else really. Delly was good last year from the eye test but maybe it was a matter that everyone was so bad that by default he looked good. Because this year dude has been trash at everything other than shooting 3s and throwing occasional lobs to TT.
 
Nate Robinson was completely ineffective coming off knee surgery and hasn't been on ANY roster for months. He relied on quickness to score and was never a particularly effective distributor even when healthy. It takes tremendous arrogance to believe that you, a common fan, have discovered some golden secret that 30 GMs never thought to check. Nate ain't healthy enough to play.

As for Fear the Sword, they looked at known reputable statistics and used the most negative filter possible to interpret those statistics. It's what young journalists mistake for accuracy. I was guilty of it myself at times when I just didn't like a player.

But it shouldn't be mistaken as a balanced analysis if you are only fishing for the biased half of the statistical data.
 
Randolphkeys said:
It takes tremendous arrogance to believe that you, a common fan, have discovered some golden secret that 30 GMs never thought to check.
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I'm not big on using stats to determine Delly's worth. He just isn't enough part of the offense to factor in and we really aren't asking him to do anything other than shoot open 3s. But I wholeheartedly agree with you on this. And it is no coincidence that teams ruthlessly go after him on defense. I have to believe that is because the league has figured out he isn't very good at it. Which is all I really want out of him.
 
NasstyNate said:
But I wholeheartedly agree with you on this. And it is no coincidence that teams ruthlessly go after him on defense. I have to believe that is because the league has figured out he isn't very good at it.
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EDIT: Now that I've actually read the piece from the journalist, he was not as overtly bias as mhi presented, mhi was much more guilty of cherry picking the most negative parts of the article. So, click on the article for accuracy, don't just read a poster with an axe to grind. mhi really misrepresents the article fairly blatantly.

Oh they figured it out in his first preseason. He needs help defense in man to man defense against quick guards, and the league is dominated by quick guards in the post-hand check era. What he can do is get physical in off ball defense and funnel his man into the help, which he normally does. This is a great defense, the opponent will obviously attack the guy with the least amount of lateral quickness in mismatches. But when Miller or Jones are out there, the easiest mark changes to one of them.
 
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Randolphkeys said:
EDIT: Now that I've actually read the piece from the journalist, he was not as overtly bias as mhi presented, mhi was much more guilty of cherry picking the most negative parts of the article. So, click on the article for accuracy, don't just read a poster with an axe to grind. mhi really misrepresents the article fairly blatantly.

Oh they figured it out in his first preseason. He needs help defense in man to man defense against quick guards, and the league is dominated by quick guards in the post-hand check era. What he can do is get physical in off ball defense and funnel his man into the help, which he normally does. This is a great defense, the opponent will obviously attack the guy with the least amount of lateral quickness in mismatches. But when Miller or Jones are out there, the easiest mark changes to one of them.
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I want to know when was the last time a PG got 10 rebounds in his first NBA start.
Or even a Double-Double? You know, like Delly did.
 
amurderofcrows said:
I want to know when was the last time a PG got 10 rebounds in his first NBA start.
Or even a Double-Double? You know, like Delly did.
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Don't need him to rebound. That's why we have Love, Mozgov, and Thompson.
 
What bullshit! We need everyone to rebound, dive for loose balls ... You know...play basketball like they mean it and not just in the big games.
The article quoted above does cherry pick the stats and starts with the premise that there is a problem and where is the proof.
The question could also be why is shumpert not getting the role when he is paid four times as much as Delly? Why does blatt trust Delly? What does blatt and the organisation see in Delly that the selectively quoted stats do not?
 
NeilR said:
Why does blatt trust Delly? What does blatt and the organisation see in Delly that the selectively quoted stats do not?
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I'm thinking depth. Who's going to backup J.R. if Shumpert starts over Dellavedova?
 
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