Matthew Dellavedova

[BankShot]

While I agree with points on both sides, I gotta admit and am surprised to say, Nate has held his own in this debate, and that's coming from a huge Keys fan of many years.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I said all of this, except I'm not ready to call him an excellent 3 and D guy considering the gift he has been given to play with the players we have.

But...if we keep him, he's going to be playing with those same guys. So what difference does it make? If it works -- and shooting nearly 41% from 3 is certainly "working" -- then why complain? Guys who shoot nearly 41% from 3 and can defend multiple positions are not "end of bench" players in the NBA.

If your point is that playing with these guys would inflate anyone's 3P%, I'd just point out that doesn't seem to hold true with respect to other guys on the team. JR shot about 3% better from 3 than he did in NY, but Shump, Love, and LBJ all shot worse than where they came from. Delly, at over 40%, shot better than everyone except Kyrie. And I know you've criticized him for not moving off the ball (????), but how is he managing to get all these open looks if he's not moving off the ball to find the open space?

Anyway, at least from my perspective, this has been like trying to hit a moving target. You make arguments or claims to which responses are given, and you either ignore the response or change your claim.

You claimed he shouldn't be a rotation guy, and pointed to his negative plus/minus. It was then pointed out that nearly every 7/8 rotation player is a negative +/-. You didn't address that.

You say Kent Bazemore is someone you'd prefer. But when the plus/minus statistic upon which you previously relied shows that Bazemore's plus/minus was significantly worse than Delly's, you ignore the response.

There is general agreement he is not a good penetrator, so in response to us talking about Delly's other skills making up for his lack of penetration (at least as a backup, not a starter), you tried to disqualify him by saying:

PGs that can't create off the dribble are end of the bench players. Do you disagree? Can you think of counterexamples?

I gave you one name, and Keys gave you a ton, at least some of which were certainly PG's who couldn't create off the dribble. I don't think I ever saw Steve Kerr beat anyone off the dribble. Yet, he was the Cavs b/u PG. Your response was (essentially) that those guys all had some other quality that made up for their lack of dribble penetration, or that there were other guys on those teams who penetrated.

Well, sure, but that's the exact same argument we were making with Delly. And it was in response to our argument that he had other skills that you tried to disqualify him with the categorical "PG's that can't create off the dribble are end of the bench players." So the whole thing was kind of circular.

 

[Jordan]

@NasstyNate and @Randolphkeys , you both have been kind of condescending to each other. I love both of you but your argument has become really, uncomfortably personal.

On to the subject at hand, my question is if Delly's shooting numbers are inflated because of the talent around him, how does that explain his minute with a lot of bench guys? So I think one side, which I admittedly relate to more, is saying Delly's +/- is flawed because he plays significant minutes with scrubs. Whereas the other group is saying Delly's numbers are actually inflated because of those around him. So, my big question to the latter group, is Delly even worse that his +/- suggests? I find that hard to believe but await your responses.

 

[NasstyNate]

Nate, your tone was condescending before I got in on this post, and just out condescended you. Going forward, it might be time to take it back a notch. It clearly wasn't working for you.

Only if you define condescending as having an opinion different from yours. It's not my fault that you misread my post and went off on some wild tangent about AAU basketball in your first response to me. Q-Tip was able to engage amicably even though we disagreed. We even found out that we agree with each other on a lot of points, including Delly's strengths on our team.

I respond in kind, and you came out with your nose up high treating me like an idiot. When I pushed back, you withdrew from discussing any of my points and started running victory laps. I'm happy to take it back a notch going forward, but I am not some simpleton you can push around.

As for Lee's post, I will continue to believe Dellavedova ends up a part of the regular rotation. He might get less minutes in certain situations next season, but that can be said for everyone on the roster. The Cavaliers had a very real depth issue last year. Delly was 6th on the team in total minutes played, despite missing a few weeks with an injury. In the playoffs, the Cavaliers should have never been in a position where they only had one active point guard. Those problems shouldn't be present in year two of contending. I just don't believe you need to trash Dellavedova in the process of aquiring adequate depth.

I believe he will end up around 8th or so in minutes. If the Cavaliers didn't have souch dead weight at the end of the bench, Dellavedova wouldn't be perceived as getting too many minutes.

• Do you believe Delly will get an offer from another team? If so, what do you think that offer will be?
• Do you believe Delly is able to play the PG position on a team in the 10-25 record range? You note that he is our 8th man, which is obviously because we have a ton of talent. How do you think he would play on a team where he is the 6-7th man as the primary backup PG? Do you think he would have the same 3pt and A/TO numbers?
  
• Here is a list of players 6'4 and below sorted by win shares /48. You said Delly is one of the better 3 and D guards in the league. He is 49 out of 83 players in this list. Where do you think his right place is on that list? Are there players below that you would put above? Are there players above that you would put below?

 

[Randolphkeys]

Only if you define condescending as having an opinion different from yours. It's not my fault that you misread my post and went off on some wild tangent about AAU basketball in your first response to me. Q-Tip was able to engage amicably even though we disagreed. We even found out that we agree with each other on a lot of points, including Delly's strengths on our team.

I respond in kind, and you came out with your nose up high treating me like an idiot. When I pushed back, you withdrew from discussing any of my points and started running victory laps. I'm happy to take it back a notch going forward, but I am not some simpleton you can push around.

If you wanted the last word on writing tone, I'm giving it to you. Enjoy. Just don't expect any changes in how I respond to faulted circular logic. I've been writing like this since before the Chris Mihm draft and it seems to be well liked. The only real change is that two years ago I would have banned you for a week after your first personal dig that had nothing to do with Dellavedova. I'm actually much nicer than I used to be.

• Do you believe Delly will get an offer from another team? If so, what do you think that offer will be?

Delly is in that third tier of talent out of the free agents, and he is restricted as well. Nobody knows what the 29 other GMS are thinking, but LeBron has likely already told the front office who he wants back. Assuming Delly is on that list, and quotes from the Finals lead me to believe he is, teams aren't likely to make an offer. If a team makes an offer, Gilbert will spend to match it. He is going to keep LeBron happy.

• Do you believe Delly is able to play the PG position on a team in the 10-25 record range? You note that he is our 8th man, which is obviously because we have a ton of talent. How do you think he would play on a team where he is the 6-7th man as the primary backup PG? Do you think he would have the same 3pt and A/TO numbers?

Now we have to discuss the offensive philosophy of the coaching staff. He played under Brett Brown for Australia, who runs staggered off the ball screens just like SAS, ATL, and GS. In a system like that one, he can play 15-30 minutes a night. On a team that builds the offense off pick and rolls like Mike D'Antoni, he is a better fit at shooting guard.

• Here is a list of players 6'4 and below sorted by win shares /48. You said Delly is one of the better combo guards in the league. He is 49 out of 83 players in this list. Where do you think his right place is on that list? Are there players below that you would put above? Are there players above that you would put below?

We have discussed Delly's style of play being more valuable in the playoffs when the game slows down and becomes more physical. We have also discussed how he played with mismatching wing players when both Kyrie and LeBron were out for a few weeks. The Cavaliers need another point guard, but Dellavedova has proven to be a factor in the playoffs. I don't see how a regular season win shares statistic measures that.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

• 
  
  Here is a list of players 6'4 and below sorted by win shares /48.
  
  You said Delly is one of the better 3 and D guards in the league.​

• ​

I just want to point out that sorting all guards by win shares/48 is not the same thing as ranking "3 and D" ability, because "3 and D" is a more narrow skillset than reflected by winshares. A guy who is one of the better 3 and D players can still be below average in overall winshares.

But on to more important things....

He is 49 out of 83 players in this list. Where do you think his right place is on that list? Are there players below that you would put above? Are there players above that you would put below?

Okay, so you're going to use winshares/48? Fine. Let's stick to that.

I ran a similar thing on the same site, except I got rid of the 6'4" restriction and just went for guards in general because that's what we were debating. Although numbers wise, it doesn't make much difference as Delly's at about the same percentile in either group.

Anwyay, Delly was 73rd out of 129 guards in winshares/48. Which incidentally puts him significantly above Iman Shumpert, at 95.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...at=&order_by=ws_per_48&order_by_asc=&offset=0

Now, there are 30 teams in the league, each of whom start 2 guards. That's 60 guys. If you added the third guard on each team, that would take you up to 90 guys. But Delly is the 73rd by winshare/48.

So if we're going to use winshares/48 as the proxy for how good a guy is, Delly comes up dead smack in the middle of the range for the 3rd guard on each team -- first guard off the bench.

That squarely contradicts your claim that he should be an "end of the bench" guy.​

 

[NasstyNate]

Now we have to discuss the offensive philosophy of the coaching staff. He played under Brett Brown for Australia, who runs staggered off the ball screens just like SAS, ATL, and GS. In a system like that one, he can play 15-30 minutes a night. On a team that builds the offense off pick and rolls like Mike D'Antoni, he is a better fit at shooting guard.

I'm not sure I agree about him playing 15-30 minutes a night running staggered off ball screens. He isn't fast enough to run guys around screens and his release is still pretty slow, which would allow teams that switch on perimeter screens to close out on him rather easily. I also do not think he has the quick decision-making skills to hit the correct man in that offense. He is way, way too conservative with the ball in his hands. We've seen what he can do in a pick and roll offense, and I agree he would be fine as a stand still SG as long as he has talented guys around him to draw attention.

We have discussed Delly's style of play being more valuable in the playoffs when the game slows down and becomes more physical. We have also discussed how he played with mismatching wing players when both Kyrie and LeBron were out for a few weeks. The Cavaliers need another point guard, but Dellavedova has proven to be a factor in the playoffs. I don't see how a regular season win shares statistic measures that.

I just thought saying he is one of the better 3 and D guys in the league was a bit much. I went with WS because it generally puts guys in the right order impact-wise. To be honest, I am just trying to get a picture of your real opinion of Delly as a player, and I thought player comparisons would be the best way to accomplish that.

 

[NasstyNate]

I just want to point out that sorting all guards by win shares/48 is not the same thing as ranking "3 and D" ability, because "3 and D" is a more narrow skillset than reflected by winshares. A guy who is one of the better 3 and D players can still be below average in overall winshares.

But on to more important things....



Okay, so you're going to use winshares/48? Fine. Let's stick to that.

I ran a similar thing on the same site, except I got rid of the 6'4" restriction and just went for guards in general because that's what we were debating. Although numbers wise, it doesn't make much difference as Delly's at about the same percentile in either group.

Anwyay, Delly was 73rd out of 129 guards in winshares/48. Which incidentally puts him significantly above Iman Shumpert, at 95.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...at=&order_by=ws_per_48&order_by_asc=&offset=0

Now, there are 30 teams in the league, each of whom start 2 guards. That's 60 guys. If you added the third guard on each team, that would take you up to 90 guys. But Delly is the 73rd by winshare/48.

So if we're going to use winshares/48 as the proxy for how good a guy is, Delly comes up dead smack in the middle of the range for the 3rd guard on each team -- first guard off the bench.

That squarely contradicts your claim that he should be an "end of the bench" guy.​

I think you will find I already responded to your points in my last two posts.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'm not sure I agree about him playing 15-30 minutes a night running staggered off ball screens. He isn't fast enough to run guys around screens and his release is still pretty slow, which would allow teams that switch on perimeter screens to close out on him rather easily.

I do not agree. I watched the majority of the Warriors playoff run in the Western Conference, and nobody kept up with Curry as well as Delly did. It's not just about flat out speed, it's the ability to weave quickly in a crowded area, both on offense and defense. He has also completely transformed his body since the Summer League of 2013. I'm not going to bet on him in the decathalon, but his foot speed is now adequate. He will never have a first step that takes a guy off the dribble, but he can set picks and run off picks.

I also do not think he has the quick decision-making skills to hit the correct man in that offense. He is way, way too conservative with the ball in his hands.

Again, he had some bad moments in those last two or three finals games. I see that as a credit to the Warriors. In the week leading up to the Finals, I felt Cavs fans weren't giving them enough credit. They made a lot of good players look bad this past season. Before the finals, Dellavedova made a mistake here or there, but in basketball everyone makes errors and turns the ball over. He is a valuable system passer, but the style that Love and Delly play didn't always mesh with the New York guys. Remember why Phil Jackson traded them on the cheap: Knicks brass didn't think they could break out of their iso and PnR habits on offense. I get on my soapbox and bash AAU coaching from time to time, but it's true. Our youth aren't receiving the fundamentals of team basketball anymore. The Euroleague youth programs do. LeBron has also been slow to fully embrace the staggered screens and positionless offensive sets Blatt tried to install early last season. I do wonder which side will win out.

We've seen what he can do in a pick and roll offense, and I agree he would be fine as a stand still SG as long as he has talented guys around him to draw attention.

Most of the trade targets we hear about are from this more Euro style. Cedi certainly doesn't fit a pick and roll system, but he fits a Popovich system. We hear a lot about Spurs trade targets this week. I think it's the future of the NBA, and the players who havent been in that offense before will adapt when they realize Kerr's offense can also work in Cleveland. LeBron has a lot of say in the franchise, but he loves winning more.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I think you will find I already responded to your points in my last two posts.

To be honest, I don't think you addressed my point that Delly's winshare/48 means he's a first guard off the bench, not an "end of bench" player. Or if you did address it, the response was sufficiently ambiguous that I don't understand your position. In your response, you said:

I went with WS because it generally puts guys in the right order impact-wise.

So if Delly is the 73rd out of 129 guards, then doesn't that mean he's "impact-wise" a third guard/first off the bench, rather than an "end of bench" guy?

Because if not, then you're basically saying all those guys ranked below him in terms of winshares/48 should be playing more than him. In which case, your decision to use winshares/48 in the first place makes no sense.

And just to not be hiding the ball, here's where I'm coming from:

First you used plus/minus as the stat of choice to argue that Delly was an end of the bench guy. When that was proven to be flawed, you dropped it.

You then went on to choose winshares/48, thinking it supported your argument. Now, when it is shown to do the opposite, you seem to be dismissing the relevance of that statistic. So it's kind of a pattern of you claiming that a certain statistic is a good proxy, until it disproves your argument, at which point you dismiss its value.

And I know you sure as hell wouldn't let me get away with that.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I do not agree. I watched the majority of the Warriors playoff run in the Western Conference, and nobody kept up with Curry as well as Delly did. It's not just about flat out speed, it's the ability to weave quickly in a crowded area, both on offense and defense. He has also completely transformed his body since the Summer League of 2013. I'm not going to bet on him in the decathalon, but his foot speed is now adequate. He will never have a first step that takes a guy off the dribble, but he can set picks and run off picks.

Again, he had some bad moment's in those last two or three finals games. I see that as a credit to the Warriors. In the week leading up to the Finals, I felt Cavs fans weren't giving them enough credit. They made a lot of good players look bad this past season.

Delly got burned earlier in the season by quicker guards, but as the season went on, he seemed to learn how to use his strength to more quickly move through traffic to make up for it. And the big risk of the quick guys blowing passed him was ameliorated by getting the rim protector we all knew was needed.

And I really agree with how some folks wrongly started dismissing GSW's defense, which shut down a lot of teams during the season. They clamped down, as they had the ability to do, and we lacked that special isolation player in the backcourt to break it.

Also, I think the fatigue issue really started coming on strong as that series wore on. Everyone started looking bad except the Red Menace there in the middle.

 

[supergoat52]

I'm actually much nicer than I used to be.

Truth.

 

[NasstyNate]

I do not agree. I watched the majority of the Warriors playoff run in the Western Conference, and nobody kept up with Curry as well as Delly did. It's not just about flat out speed, it's the ability to weave quickly in a crowded area, both on offense and defense. He has also completely transformed his body since the Summer League of 2013. I'm not going to bet on him in the decathalon, but his foot speed is now adequate. He will never have a first step that takes a guy off the dribble, but he can set picks and run off picks.

I think you have a point about how it is not just flat out speed and his success on Curry. One thing that Delly did that impressed me was making up for his lack of speed by studying the tape and finding the right shortcut angles to end up where he knew Curry would be. However, that's not going to work on offense if he is responsible for getting himself open (albeit with the help of off ball screens) on another team without the talent that we do. Do you disagree that switching perimeter screens will take him out of the majority of plays?

Again, he had some bad moments in those last two or three finals games. I see that as a credit to the Warriors. In the week leading up to the Finals, I felt Cavs fans weren't giving them enough credit. They made a lot of good players look bad this past season. Before the finals, Dellavedova made a mistake here or there, but in basketball everyone makes errors and turns the ball over. He is a valuable system passer, but the style that Love and Delly play didn't always mesh with the New York guys. Remember why Phil Jackson traded them on the cheap: Knicks brass didn't think they could break out of their iso and PnR habits on offense. I get on my soapbox and bash AAU coaching from time to time, but it's true. Our youth aren't receiving the fundamentals of team basketball anymore. The Euroleague youth programs do. LeBron has also been slow to fully embrace the staggered screens and positionless offensive sets Blatt tried to install early last season. I do wonder which side will win out.

I agree with all of this. But again, I am approaching this conversation from the perspective of how Delly would do on a team without our talent. He was conservative all year and for the life of me I can't remember any great passes he made or scoring opportunities that he created other than PnR and the lob. In an off ball screen offense, players need to quickly decide whether to go inside or the perimeter and I do not see him displaying that ability.

 

[NasstyNate]

To be honest, I don't think you addressed my point that Delly's winshare/48 means he's a first guard off the bench, not an "end of bench" player. Or if you did address it, the response was sufficiently ambiguous that I don't understand your position. In your response, you said:



So if Delly is the 73rd out of 129 guards, then doesn't that mean he's "impact-wise" a third guard/first off the bench, rather than an "end of bench" guy?

Because if not, then you're basically saying all those guys ranked below him in terms of winshares/48 should be playing more than him. In which case, your decision to use winshares/48 in the first place makes no sense.

And just to not be hiding the ball, here's where I'm coming from:

First you used plus/minus as the stat of choice to argue that Delly was an end of the bench guy. When that was proven to be flawed, you dropped it.

You then went on to choose winshares/48, thinking it supported your argument. Now, when it is shown to do the opposite, you seem to be dismissing the relevance of that statistic. So it's kind of a pattern of you claiming that a certain statistic is a good proxy, until it disproves your argument, at which point you dismiss its value.

And I know you sure as hell wouldn't let me get away with that.

You are totally misunderstanding the conversation. Keys and I had a discussion where he said Delly is one of the best 3 and D players in the league under 6'5. I built a list of players under 6'5 and arbitrarily chose WS/48 because it generally puts players in order so I could facilitate a discussion on where Keys thinks Delly really belongs in the league. Choose any stat. I don't care. I just want to know who Keys thinks Delly is better than. I explained this already in post #4130.

I used +/- to say we were better with him off the court than on. Do you disagree with that? I'm not dismissing anything and you haven't disproven anything.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I agree with all of this. But again, I am approaching this conversation from the perspective of how Delly would do on a team without our talent.

I've always thought that Delly is the kind of player who is more valuable on a contending team than on a rebuilding one. For so many contending teams, the difference can be the ability to get that one extra matchup, or that higher level of intensity all around. A weird "X" factor.

I have never seen a team put forth a greater collective effort than what the Cavs did in this playoff run. Obviously, a lot of the credit for that goes to the staff and LBJ. But dammit, when Delly does the things he does, and you see guys like JJ and MM diving on the floor for a loose ball, I have to think he also deserves a lot of credit for that. His teammates certainly give him credit for that. And the whole league/analyst community was giving Delly credit for throwing Curry off his game.

Delly obviously has some holes in his game, and there are times when the matchups just aren't going to be right for him. But there are other times when he can completely change the flow of a game and be a real difference maker. The mental toughness he brought in the playoffs was just insane. And because he always brings an improving defense and intensity, you can always count on him at least for that.

You deal with Delly's weaknesses by pairing him with someone who complements those weaknesses -- an offense-first third PG who penetrates, but who isn't starting or being the primary backup because of the other holes in his game.

You don't bury Delly on the end of the bench as some sort of sideshow, because he simply brings too much.