Re: Oden eyes Cavs, Heat
Oden seems like a guy who could get by with decreased athleticism. For instance, flat-footed he's got a 7.5" advantage in reach over Tyler. Still, his no-step vertical reach tops the Dx combine charts at 12'0" - he won't be the same player if he's lost that.
You can't play NBA ball with arthritic knees just by saying "oh, I won't jump too much and I'll be fine." It doesn't work like that. There's a huge difference between being old and having lost some bounce, and playing hurt. If his knees are really so shot that merely
jumping puts an unsafe amount of strain on them, he won't last five games without his knee self-destructing. I mean, he hurt his knee standing up from a chair six years ago...and it's very hard for me to believe that his knees are healthier now than they were then. Not even the Cleveland Clinic can make knees age in reverse. It's one thing if his knees are actually healthy, but it's ridiculous to say that if his knees are hurting, he can just play the same game but with less athleticism. I don't need to tell you how that worked out for Brandon Roy, and Brandon Roy is a fraction of Oden's weight.
Also, in the case that he is somehow finally healthy, keep in mind that for this to pay off we need him to be healthy at least through the spring of 2015. Unless the plan is to literally not play him at all until the playoffs, I see really no chance at all of his knees holding up that long without another injury. He's played 1800 minutes in his career, to go along with 5 knee surgeries. Fifth time's the charm? Maybe now his knees are all fine and dandy and the Cleveland Clinic will inject them with a magic cartilage protecting elixir? Sorry, but I'm not so optimistic.
And please, don't respond to this citing cases of other players coming back from other injuries. Read up on microfracture surgery, and read up on the specifics of Oden's condition first.
To be clear, I really feel terrible for the guy. Knee injuries have robbed us of possibly the best true center of our generation. Nothing would make me happier than him resurrecting his career, but the odds of that happening, as far as i can tell, are about as good as Shaq coming back to chase his fifth ring.