Prospect Or Suspect?

[CATS44]

This is not meant to be an Indians centric thread, but it does reference a lot of names that have been mentioned on this forum that have been connected at least peripherally to the Tribe.

When does a highly rated prospect become a suspect?

The Indians, as all teams, have had can't miss prospects who certainly have fulfilled their promise. I'm talking kids who were generally considered Top 30 or higher types.

Lindor, Kipnis, and Santana did.

We've also had high end kids that flopped.

LaPorta and LaPorta come to mind, while the jury is out (maybe) on Zimmer, Frazier, and Mejia.

It doesn't matter whether the fall comes due to lack of production, lack of opportunity, or a history of injuries...when does a prospect become a suspect? How long do you wait, and when does their value begin to drop?

This is a subjective question, and there is a semantical definition involved. Every young player is a prospect until they utterly fail. (Marte) And every prospect, no matter how highly rated, is a suspect until they produce over a period of time. (Lindor)

So, in this list of present names, which do you view as prospect or suspect, using a 1-10 scale, with 10 being cant miss, centerpiece of trade...and 1 being yecch, not worth being more than organizational filler?

Zimmer......2
Mejia..........3
Frazier........6
Andujar......5
Riley...........8
Lux.............7
Senzel.......7
Kieboom....8
Adell...........9

All these guys, unless they change their trajectory, are trending down. The longer they don't produce, for any reason, the closer they get to arby, and the more
their value drops.

Zimmer, Mejia, Frazier, Andujar, and Senzel go to arby next winter. Lux doesn't get arby until 2024.

Obviously, for the bottom four especially, the sample size is so small that there is plenty of time to produce up to their hype level...but the clock never quits ticking.

And the next...and last question...

In a blockbuster trade, which one(s) of the above would you accept as the centerpiece in return?

 

[CDAV45]

Zimmer(3)- his inability to stay healthy has severely hurt his stock and his performance while healthy isn't that great. He's also 28.
Mejia(5)- I think this kid will hit and hit well, but is he a C or not? He's 25.
Frazier(9)- In just about a full season's worth of AB he's performed like we hoped one of our corner OFers would. He's only 26.
Andujar(7)- This dude can and will hit. If he could play decent defense anywhere then he would top this ranking. He's only 25, but it seems like he's been around for awhile.
Riley(8)- Mashed in the minors, incredible power, versatile defensively, and is only 23.
Lux(7)- I'm highly suspicous of PCL hitters, but he's a good, young player. He's also 23.
Senzel(7)- Performed well in the minors, has had some injuries, but I think he'll move closer toward his minor league numbers which were oustanding. He's 25.
Kieboom(8)- I honestly haven't followed this kid much. He's gonna be a good one and profiles well in a position of need for us. He's 23.
Adell(7)- See Lux.

I'd take any of Frazier, Andujar, Riley, Senzel, and Kieboom as centerpieces in a trade. I think I feel the same about Lux and Adell, but like I said, PCL hitters give me pause. Not really interested in Mejia as a C because the performance of our pitching staff is our only means of being competitive at this point.

 

[DCTribefan]

Adell is a 9, really? I would put him at 6 tops.

 

[CATS44]

Like I said, its all subjective.

But I tend to value non performing prospects...which all of these are...that are younger and farther away from arby.

I also weigh injury factors very heavily, which folks that I've been talking with over many forums for a long time know. A player/pitcher who is constantly hurt...no matter how good...holds little value to me.

I call it my Jimmy Brown Rule #1. JB was the best RB in history, but would have no value if he was sitting on the bench, nursing a broken ankle.

It applies to Zimmer, Naquin, and the greatest baseball player that nobody has ever heard of....a guy named Pete Reiser.

 

[CATS44]

Maybe a better question is...

When does a prospect become 'what he is'?

Eddie Murray said that 1000 at bats was the point. That, too, is subjective.

I can think of three present day players off hand.

Jurickson Profar was the concensus #1 prospect in 2013. To say he scuffled for years is an understatement, and he missed nearly two years, due to a injury. shoulder injury. But he was a 2.8 WAR player in 2018, seven seasons after his debut with the Rangers. He's been about an average player since. The Rangers got one year of production out of him and paid one year of arby. They virtually gave him away to Oakland in a convoluted trade, and Oakland gave him away a year later. Now he is a FA at age 28.

What is he now?

Danby Swanson was a concensus top five prospect....with a 65 FV. After a cup of coffee in 2016, he became the regular SS for the Braves. He struggled for a year, then became a 1.5 WAR player, but in 2020 he seemed to break out. Overall he's been a below average hitter who hit well in 2020. He is in his second arby at age 28.

What is he now?

Armad Rosario was a concensus top ten prospect with a FV of 65. After a partial season with the Mets he became the starting SS and has been decidedly average over three years, a well below average hitter who has collected 4.6 WAR. He is arby eligible at age 25.

What is he now?

The point of mentioning these three is that at the time they made it to the Bigs, they were better prospects than all of the youngsters in my original list, except for Lux.

Are these three ready to break out into what they were expected to be, or are they what they are?

Would it be a better bet to acquire one of these three (to a solid round of boos), or better to acquire one of the big name prospects on the original list ( to a chorus of wild cheering)?

Consider that it would probably cost a lot less to acquire one of these three.

 

[Criznit]

Of the supplied names, only a couple could come close to being a considered a centerpiece, and one of those (Kieboom) does not seem likely from the Nats perspective. These are MLB ready names only, and honestly I don't consider any of these names centerpiece worthy, but its the packae we are after..

Zimmer......1 2
Mejia..........3 6
Frazier........7 6
Andujar......2 4
Riley...........5 6
Lux.............8 7
Senzel.......6 6
Kieboom....9 8
Adell...........4 5


Lux makes some sense, but only if you expect him or someone like Freeman to stick at SS.. I am not enamored with Adell or Riley. Kieboom is the only one who could headline a package.. The others are co-features IMO. I know my opinion of Adell is in the minority.

I ranked them not scaled them.. 2nd number is scale

 

[biggie4]

M

 

[biggie4]

In a trade for Lindor, I will take any of the above, with the exception of Zimmer, Mejia, and Andujar.
Let’s just get this trade over with.

 

[CDAV45]

I think we could use a RHH 1B and Andujar could be a nice fit. Frazier and Andujar would make a big difference in this line up. We would have to add to Lindor to get both, but I don't know what exactly.

 

[Urban]

Except Andujar hasn't played an inning at 1B...

 

[CDAV45]

Except Andujar hasn't played an inning at 1B...

Not in a regular season game he hasn't, and it hasn't been without incident either. Your concern is very valid. From the sounds of it, the Yankees are more pleased with his play in LF than 1B. My confidence lies in his ability to hit, after that he's suspect.

 

[Urban]

Not in a regular season game he hasn't, and it hasn't been without incident either. Your concern is very valid. From the sounds of it, the Yankees are more pleased with his play in LF than 1B. My confidence lies in his ability to hit, after that he's suspect.

I like Andujar as a sweetener piece or a buy-low candidate but I'm much more skeptical than you on him. We haven't seen him produce in over 2 years, he's pretty horrific defensively (we'll have to see him at LF or 1B), and he doesn't walk.

 

[DCTribefan]

I like Andujar as a sweetener piece or a buy-low candidate but I'm much more skeptical than you on him. We haven't seen him produce in over 2 years, he's pretty horrific defensively (we'll have to see him at LF or 1B), and he doesn't walk.

But otherwise, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

 

[CDAV45]

I like Andujar as a sweetener piece or a buy-low candidate but I'm much more skeptical than you on him. We haven't seen him produce in over 2 years, he's pretty horrific defensively (we'll have to see him at LF or 1B), and he doesn't walk.

He’s only 25 so he can get better and he’s already shown what kind of hitter he can be, but the defense is worrisome. I’m with you, I’d prefer to see him as a secondary piece.

 

[Steve_424]

Adell is a 9, really? I would put him at 6 tops.

Adell was ranked #5 prospect overall before his promotion and is only 21 years old. I'm not going to downplay his talent based on 38 games but I guess we'll see.